Oil up 6% in a day!
Discussion
WTI now at $95.39 up 6%
Brent is up too 3% to over $105 per barrel, that should add one or two pence per litre.
BUT, what about if the Libya/Egypt/Tunisia/Bahrain protests spread to Iran, Oil could easily be at $125 within a couple of weeks if this carries on meaning 10p on fuel and if that coincides with the budget and the 5p ish fuel rise we could see 15p per litre by April.
Oh dear.
Brent is up too 3% to over $105 per barrel, that should add one or two pence per litre.
BUT, what about if the Libya/Egypt/Tunisia/Bahrain protests spread to Iran, Oil could easily be at $125 within a couple of weeks if this carries on meaning 10p on fuel and if that coincides with the budget and the 5p ish fuel rise we could see 15p per litre by April.
Oh dear.
There may be some short term volatility but in the medium to long term, as elected governments take power in these countries prices will stabilise and as some experts were saying on R4 this evening, most likely will drop.
Whether teh petrol companies will do the usual, "hike it quick - drop it slow" as prices change, is another matter.
Whether teh petrol companies will do the usual, "hike it quick - drop it slow" as prices change, is another matter.
Seeker UK said:
There may be some short term volatility but in the medium to long term, as elected governments take power in these countries prices will stabilise and as some experts were saying on R4 this evening, most likely will drop.
Whether teh petrol companies will do the usual, "hike it quick - drop it slow" as prices change, is another matter.
Well, yes, that is likely to be the case.Whether teh petrol companies will do the usual, "hike it quick - drop it slow" as prices change, is another matter.
BUT, what if there is no elected government, what if no one can agree, what if it turns into mob rule?
Who says in Libya that elected governments will take power as opposed to their being a lot, drawn out civil war?
Yes, they could drop, but on the other hand they could go higher. Most people thought after Tunisia there wouldn't be anymore. How do we know that Iran is not next along with other OPEC countries?
The experts are just stating one side of the story. Yes, it could get better, but so far the signs are it will get worse from what I read.
Although I am absolutely no expert!
Summary of Reserve Data as of 2010 Country Reserves [16] Production [17] Reserve life 1
109 bbl 109 m3 106 bbl/d 103 m3/d years
Saudi Arabia 267 42.4 9.7 1,540 127.5
Iraq 180 29 3.5 560 142
Canada 179 28.5 2.1 330 188
Iran 138 21.9 4.0 640 95
Kuwait 104 16.5 2.6 410 110
Venezuela 99 15.7 2.7 430 100
United Arab Emirates 98 15.6 2.9 460 93
Russia 60 9.5 9.9 1,570 17
Kazakhstan 47 7.5 1.4 220 93
Libya 41 6.5 1.7 270 66
Nigeria 36 5.7 2.4 380 41
United States 21 3.3 7.5 1,190 8
China 16 2.5 3.9 620 11
Qatar 15 2.4 0.9 140 46
Algeria 12 1.9 2.2 350 15
Brazil 12 1.9 2.3 370 14
Mexico 12 1.9 3.5 560 9
Total of top seventeen reserves 1,243 197.6 63.5 10,100 54
saudi arabia and iran seem to be the ones to watch
109 bbl 109 m3 106 bbl/d 103 m3/d years
Saudi Arabia 267 42.4 9.7 1,540 127.5
Iraq 180 29 3.5 560 142
Canada 179 28.5 2.1 330 188
Iran 138 21.9 4.0 640 95
Kuwait 104 16.5 2.6 410 110
Venezuela 99 15.7 2.7 430 100
United Arab Emirates 98 15.6 2.9 460 93
Russia 60 9.5 9.9 1,570 17
Kazakhstan 47 7.5 1.4 220 93
Libya 41 6.5 1.7 270 66
Nigeria 36 5.7 2.4 380 41
United States 21 3.3 7.5 1,190 8
China 16 2.5 3.9 620 11
Qatar 15 2.4 0.9 140 46
Algeria 12 1.9 2.2 350 15
Brazil 12 1.9 2.3 370 14
Mexico 12 1.9 3.5 560 9
Total of top seventeen reserves 1,243 197.6 63.5 10,100 54
saudi arabia and iran seem to be the ones to watch
dave9 said:
WTI now at $95.39 up 6%
Brent is up too 3% to over $105 per barrel, that should add one or two pence per litre.
BUT, what about if the Libya/Egypt/Tunisia/Bahrain protests spread to Iran, Oil could easily be at $125 within a couple of weeks if this carries on meaning 10p on fuel and if that coincides with the budget and the 5p ish fuel rise we could see 15p per litre by April.
Oh dear.
It doesn't need to spread to Iran et all. Libya has enough oil reserves as it is.....not good.Brent is up too 3% to over $105 per barrel, that should add one or two pence per litre.
BUT, what about if the Libya/Egypt/Tunisia/Bahrain protests spread to Iran, Oil could easily be at $125 within a couple of weeks if this carries on meaning 10p on fuel and if that coincides with the budget and the 5p ish fuel rise we could see 15p per litre by April.
Oh dear.
That's a good enough excuse for the
s over here to push the price up.
Daston said:
Why is it the place with most of the worlds oil is the most unstable!
In many cases, it is because they have most of the world's oil. Where there are resources worth a large amount of money in an otherwise poor country, you're going to get a hugely unequal distribution of wealth which tends, ultimately, to lead to civil unrest. 
zakelwe said:
150p per litre is definitely on the cards by spring I think.
2 cars are defintely going to be cheaper to run at this rate than just one good one.
Andy
well this malarky will add 5p, fuel duty if it comes in 5p so that's 10p so it could be there if 1.35 unleaded gets to 1.45 but i don't think 1.50 as the govt will defer fuel duty or decrease the rise.2 cars are defintely going to be cheaper to run at this rate than just one good one.
Andy
1.40 is likely imho
since my first post we are now up to around $115 per barrel but i've only seen it rise by a penny since around 20th feb yet oil is up $20 per barrel.
Still more to filter through in the next couple of weeks - pound a bit stronger but still another 3p ish imho.
wonder what the chancellor is going to add in april as fuel duty - total rise could be 8p within 3/4 weeks
Still more to filter through in the next couple of weeks - pound a bit stronger but still another 3p ish imho.
wonder what the chancellor is going to add in april as fuel duty - total rise could be 8p within 3/4 weeks
dave9 said:
what the chancellor is going to add in april as fuel duty - total rise could be 8p within 3/4 weeks
Fuel duty is going up by 1p per litre + inflation (so about 3-4p per litre) in April (and again in April 2012, April 2013 and April 2014) as a result of the budget before last. I suspect that the Chancellor is more likely to postpone that rise rather than add any more to it.The big question is - what dollar value does demand destruction kick in at? If crude futures keep going up we are going to find out, and it ain't going to be pretty.
The second big question is whether demand destruction will bring the Chinese bubble to an early demise, or whether it's still on course for later in the year.
The second big question is whether demand destruction will bring the Chinese bubble to an early demise, or whether it's still on course for later in the year.
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