EV deprecation, has it stopped totally for now?
Discussion
Out of interest I looked at how much our 5 year old 75D Model X would fetch at trade in, and was surprised to see a value of £56k. We paid £71k for it in 2017 so a monthly cost of around £300/month which is pretty cheap, and we could use the funds for the house extension.
But ofcourse we would need another car, so a Nissan used Leaf would be fine after we had one before....on Autotrader £10k would barely get me into a 2015 24kWh one and here I was hoping it £10k would get me into a 40kWh new shape. Even a battery leased 2013 car is £5k+!!!
How about an MG ZS, £20k is the cheapest, but wait they cost £20k new, so pretty much zero depreciation. We all know Model 3s have dropped pretty much zero, but it appears all used EVs are just holding their prices.
Am I missing something?? I would have seriously considered down grading to a half usable £5k used EV and £50k+ in the bank to help fund the house extension....but swapping the X for a £20k MG ZS and 'only' £35k extra in the bank seems mad!!!
I know all used car prices have been going up, but it seems pretty mad to pay £10k for a 2014 Leaf and an MG with zero deprication in 2-3 years, crazy. I suspect things aren't changing any time soon?
But ofcourse we would need another car, so a Nissan used Leaf would be fine after we had one before....on Autotrader £10k would barely get me into a 2015 24kWh one and here I was hoping it £10k would get me into a 40kWh new shape. Even a battery leased 2013 car is £5k+!!!
How about an MG ZS, £20k is the cheapest, but wait they cost £20k new, so pretty much zero depreciation. We all know Model 3s have dropped pretty much zero, but it appears all used EVs are just holding their prices.
Am I missing something?? I would have seriously considered down grading to a half usable £5k used EV and £50k+ in the bank to help fund the house extension....but swapping the X for a £20k MG ZS and 'only' £35k extra in the bank seems mad!!!
I know all used car prices have been going up, but it seems pretty mad to pay £10k for a 2014 Leaf and an MG with zero deprication in 2-3 years, crazy. I suspect things aren't changing any time soon?
TheRainMaker said:
I sold my ICE car for exactly what I paid for it, had it two years and put 15000 miles on it.
Basically a free car for two years, totally bonkers.
I did just about the same with an i30N, bought brand new and sold 18months and 12k miles later, after adding in the PCP interest I'd paid, the amount recouped was about £300 shy of the total purchase price.Basically a free car for two years, totally bonkers.
With regards to EVs, the new vs used price is so close at the moment that I'm struggling to justify buying anything used. For very minor savings I'd rather buy new and have the extra warranty, I'm in a position where I don't need the next car to arrive to 12-14months so the long waits isn't a problem whatsoever but the user prices are being kept high because a lot of people aren't looking that far in advance and need the car much quicker to replace an outgoing PCP/Lease.
I don't have a crystal ball to predict what will happen to used prices in the future but at least until supply and demand level back out I don't see any drastic changes in pricing - The question is, will demand drop because of the huge increases in cost of living or is it all reliant on supply increasing back to pre-covid levels?
I think the question is if manufacturers will bother with oversupply again. They have never been so profitable as they are now. Pretty much all of them have turned into Ferrari with 12+ months waiting lists and they're probably asking themselves why go back to the old ways where they had to massively discount cars? Couple that with EVs not really improving at the rate many expected and raw materials going into EVs in particular are shooting up as more are made so hard to see EVs getting cheaper anyhow. I haven't thought deeply about it tbh and with these things who knows what's around the corner. More money printing, more tax subsidies, more wars, a nastier version of Covid-19 returns, etc.
There's been a ton of chat about the future.
People say manufacturers will have long delivery times but they will have to do what customers want in the end. If I want a BMW and the wait is 12 months and Merc can supply me in 2 months you can bet you know where my money will be. BMW will not want to start losing sales like that. Of course, they could ramp up operations to reduce stockpiling cars but that's not as easy as it sounds.
People say manufacturers will have long delivery times but they will have to do what customers want in the end. If I want a BMW and the wait is 12 months and Merc can supply me in 2 months you can bet you know where my money will be. BMW will not want to start losing sales like that. Of course, they could ramp up operations to reduce stockpiling cars but that's not as easy as it sounds.
Frimley111R said:
There's been a ton of chat about the future.
People say manufacturers will have long delivery times but they will have to do what customers want in the end. If I want a BMW and the wait is 12 months and Merc can supply me in 2 months you can bet you know where my money will be. BMW will not want to start losing sales like that. Of course, they could ramp up operations to reduce stockpiling cars but that's not as easy as it sounds.
Absolutely this - if they don't satisfy customer demand their market share drops, customers start to ignore their cars as they know they can't get one easily and they still have to discount heavily to match their competitor pricing. It's the worst of all worlds.People say manufacturers will have long delivery times but they will have to do what customers want in the end. If I want a BMW and the wait is 12 months and Merc can supply me in 2 months you can bet you know where my money will be. BMW will not want to start losing sales like that. Of course, they could ramp up operations to reduce stockpiling cars but that's not as easy as it sounds.
Here’s how I see it, speaking as someone who has owned a 64 Reg 24kwh Leaf from new.
Many, many people do a commute of up to 50 miles per day, and a few trips to wherever local over a weekend. Call it 300 miles per week, with no round trips outside of the range of any 2nd gen Leaf (64 reg onward like mine).
At current petrol prices, and assuming 40mpg in a conventional vehicle along with Octopus Go for your electricity, that’s a cost saving of around £200 per month.
That figure surely sets the floor for what any EV from almost the last decade is worth.
Many, many people do a commute of up to 50 miles per day, and a few trips to wherever local over a weekend. Call it 300 miles per week, with no round trips outside of the range of any 2nd gen Leaf (64 reg onward like mine).
At current petrol prices, and assuming 40mpg in a conventional vehicle along with Octopus Go for your electricity, that’s a cost saving of around £200 per month.
That figure surely sets the floor for what any EV from almost the last decade is worth.
I need to buy a car for my daughter as she's going to college in September so have been looking over the last few weeks. Ok, so not an EV, but seeing a softening of the market as a whole here. Still some crazy prices for weird, wonderful or in-demand stuff, but average cars are looking a lot more reasonable now - the heat is starting to come out of the market - though this doesnt quite work for the UK, things are changing.
Took a look at Tesla prices also - and there was a time when nearly new models were above list price, indicating how crazy the market is! However, prices have dropped - some of this is demand and some of this is due to the recent price hikes of Tesla's overall, but you can now get Model 3 performance models for less than list, which says a lot to me.
Anecdotal evidence at best of course, but it does look like things are settling down here at least. Still crazy and it does suggest that you may be somewhat correct for the moment - depreciation is stalling. Will it drop back to what it should be for the EV market? Not sure. There is a shift to EV and not everyone wants to afford an expensive one, so second hand will remain in demand for a while. I can certainly see that an EV, while not depreciation free, is going to be a relatively solid bet for 6-12 months while fuel is still expensive. I dont think its a bad place to keep your money, but likely will continue to drop as more EV's come to market.
One thing to note though - not so much for the UK - is that the big rises in EV sales happened in the last 3 years or so here. Its going to be interesting to see what happens to values as these ones come to market at the end of their lease / purchase agreements - sudden flood of second hand models? Maybe, but supply is going to increase and that will have an impact. Your car is still relatively rare and in short supply, certainly in the UK. Will it get affected? No idea....
Took a look at Tesla prices also - and there was a time when nearly new models were above list price, indicating how crazy the market is! However, prices have dropped - some of this is demand and some of this is due to the recent price hikes of Tesla's overall, but you can now get Model 3 performance models for less than list, which says a lot to me.
Anecdotal evidence at best of course, but it does look like things are settling down here at least. Still crazy and it does suggest that you may be somewhat correct for the moment - depreciation is stalling. Will it drop back to what it should be for the EV market? Not sure. There is a shift to EV and not everyone wants to afford an expensive one, so second hand will remain in demand for a while. I can certainly see that an EV, while not depreciation free, is going to be a relatively solid bet for 6-12 months while fuel is still expensive. I dont think its a bad place to keep your money, but likely will continue to drop as more EV's come to market.
One thing to note though - not so much for the UK - is that the big rises in EV sales happened in the last 3 years or so here. Its going to be interesting to see what happens to values as these ones come to market at the end of their lease / purchase agreements - sudden flood of second hand models? Maybe, but supply is going to increase and that will have an impact. Your car is still relatively rare and in short supply, certainly in the UK. Will it get affected? No idea....
There are obviously major constraints with EVs that are unlikely to be solved anytime soon and those constraints tend to dictate much of the design and experience but I have to assume that EVs will get better. But having said that, having had experience of a couple of the early EVs like the i3 and the I-Pace they are both much better (in terms of driving at least which is perhaps not unimportant in a car) than pretty much every other EV that I have tried so it’s perhaps not a linear progression.
I like the Leaf math above re the £200 a month minimum value. There is some truth in that, particularly as bigger battery EVs depreciate to become more affordable.
I like the Leaf math above re the £200 a month minimum value. There is some truth in that, particularly as bigger battery EVs depreciate to become more affordable.
Turtle Shed said:
Here’s how I see it, speaking as someone who has owned a 64 Reg 24kwh Leaf from new.
Many, many people do a commute of up to 50 miles per day, and a few trips to wherever local over a weekend. Call it 300 miles per week, with no round trips outside of the range of any 2nd gen Leaf (64 reg onward like mine).
At current petrol prices, and assuming 40mpg in a conventional vehicle along with Octopus Go for your electricity, that’s a cost saving of around £200 per month.
That figure surely sets the floor for what any EV from almost the last decade is worth.
How much fuel can you save before the battery is knackered?Many, many people do a commute of up to 50 miles per day, and a few trips to wherever local over a weekend. Call it 300 miles per week, with no round trips outside of the range of any 2nd gen Leaf (64 reg onward like mine).
At current petrol prices, and assuming 40mpg in a conventional vehicle along with Octopus Go for your electricity, that’s a cost saving of around £200 per month.
That figure surely sets the floor for what any EV from almost the last decade is worth.
Guess the battery is good for 150,000 miles?
If you save 10p/mile, that's £15k for a new one tapering to zilch at around 150k miles?
I think depreciation could be steep at the end, a car with short range is still worth a couple of grand to someone, but there comes a point when it's suddenly worthless.
OutInTheShed said:
How much fuel can you save before the battery is knackered?
Guess the battery is good for 150,000 miles?
If you save 10p/mile, that's £15k for a new one tapering to zilch at around 150k miles?
I think depreciation could be steep at the end, a car with short range is still worth a couple of grand to someone, but there comes a point when it's suddenly worthless.
Quite a few Teslas on 300,000+ miles. I’d imagine Leafs too.Guess the battery is good for 150,000 miles?
If you save 10p/mile, that's £15k for a new one tapering to zilch at around 150k miles?
I think depreciation could be steep at the end, a car with short range is still worth a couple of grand to someone, but there comes a point when it's suddenly worthless.
page3 said:
OutInTheShed said:
How much fuel can you save before the battery is knackered?
Guess the battery is good for 150,000 miles?
If you save 10p/mile, that's £15k for a new one tapering to zilch at around 150k miles?
I think depreciation could be steep at the end, a car with short range is still worth a couple of grand to someone, but there comes a point when it's suddenly worthless.
Quite a few Teslas on 300,000+ miles. I’d imagine Leafs too.Guess the battery is good for 150,000 miles?
If you save 10p/mile, that's £15k for a new one tapering to zilch at around 150k miles?
I think depreciation could be steep at the end, a car with short range is still worth a couple of grand to someone, but there comes a point when it's suddenly worthless.
At the end of the day how far would a 75kkWh+ battery have to degrade before being considered useless? Plenty of city EV's with < 40kWh batteries that still do a job so are we talking < 33%/25kW/100 miles or so? even then that would cover 99% of my personal usage as rarely do more than 50 miles per day and donlt expect I'm unusual in that regard?
Turtle Shed said:
Here’s how I see it, speaking as someone who has owned a 64 Reg 24kwh Leaf from new.
Many, many people do a commute of up to 50 miles per day, and a few trips to wherever local over a weekend. Call it 300 miles per week, with no round trips outside of the range of any 2nd gen Leaf (64 reg onward like mine).
At current petrol prices, and assuming 40mpg in a conventional vehicle along with Octopus Go for your electricity, that’s a cost saving of around £200 per month.
That figure surely sets the floor for what any EV from almost the last decade is worth.
I think you're right, there are enough folks who treat cars as white goods and never go on longer trips to keep the price of used Leafs / Zoe's inflated. The savings in fuel costs if you charge at home and have a smart meter compatible with Octopus Go tariffs will more than offset the expensive of a used leaf over a similar aged diesel or petrol hatch of a similar age.Many, many people do a commute of up to 50 miles per day, and a few trips to wherever local over a weekend. Call it 300 miles per week, with no round trips outside of the range of any 2nd gen Leaf (64 reg onward like mine).
At current petrol prices, and assuming 40mpg in a conventional vehicle along with Octopus Go for your electricity, that’s a cost saving of around £200 per month.
That figure surely sets the floor for what any EV from almost the last decade is worth.
Used car prices of all types are nuts at the moment, the used EV market is a goldmine for dealers who mop up all of the decent EV's and sit on them waiting for customers to pay the inflated prices.
Car production in general are obviously effected by world events. But EV specifically is a real problem. The sales are way above even the most optimistic projections, it's like when the iPhone first came out, people just want one. So here we have a period of extremely high demand for a specific type of car that most manufacturers under anticipated initially, even before the supply chain issues.
The Taycan was expected to be a major point of upset amongst Porsche loyalists but instead it overtook all their other sports car sales in a short space of time, and remains more popular today. That's an Electric Porsche outselling the 911 to customers that spat their dummies out when Porsche dared to adopt electric steering.. BMW have similar problems with 'success' too.
The demand for EV's is staggering. And it's come at the worst possible time.. Bloody Covid/Brexit/Putin
The Taycan was expected to be a major point of upset amongst Porsche loyalists but instead it overtook all their other sports car sales in a short space of time, and remains more popular today. That's an Electric Porsche outselling the 911 to customers that spat their dummies out when Porsche dared to adopt electric steering.. BMW have similar problems with 'success' too.
The demand for EV's is staggering. And it's come at the worst possible time.. Bloody Covid/Brexit/Putin
Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff