Future of cheap night rate charging

[OutInTheShed]

Looking at EV sales adding 200k plugin cars a year, more solar power (target 40GW in 2030?), hourly electricity prices etc, how long will cheap overnight charging be offered?

The spot market rate for 2AM power looks more like 15p than 7.5p:
https://www.epexspot.com/en/market-data?market_are...

The UK grid demand is 25 GW in the middle of the night, 35GW peak time.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
Incremental demand at night comes from gas.
The extra 200k cars this year, all charging at 3AM at 7kW would be another 1.4GW of demand. Then another 200k cars next year? Or more?

Why is night rate so cheap? History? Politics?
Apart from street lights and the existing 700k plugin cars, where does 25GW go?
Looking at historical data, 3AM demand might have been a GW or so lower 10 years ago, but not hugely different.

Would it change many people's view of EV if there were no cheap night rates?
I guess there are some big 24/7 industrial users?

Should we assume that once enough people have smart meters and EVs, the market will change?

[TheDeuce]

It's about grid load balancing. That becomes ever more important as the UK seeks to become energy independent.

Traditionally, as you might expect, the grid is less loaded at night hence the cheaper night time tariffs.

But you asked about the future. BEV's can play a dynamic part in future grid balancing as they collectively offer a huge temporary energy storage solution. As we look more to solar and wind energy, the future will most likely be getting pinged by an app inviting you to charge at a reduced rate, or you already plugged in car upping it's charge rate at such times. IE: soak up the sun energy when it's sunny, and the wind energy when it's windy.

Amazing what can happen as decades of technology start to converge.

[tamore]

V2G will iron out a lot of problems. leccy from peakers is very expensive so it might bring the overall cost of power down.

[anonymous-user]

OutInTheShed said:

Should we assume that once enough people have smart meters and EVs, the market will change?

TBH, smart meters and BEVs are less of an impact that gross changes in UK working and manufacturing practices. As more people work from home at less normal hours, and as more industry turns to local renewable energy sources, the classic heavy grid loading in the day, light grid loading at night starts to go way all by itself. With the remaining manufacturing and heavy industry becoming ever more automated, the days of the work happening between 9 and 5 are long gone, and plants will have to work 24/7 to leverage the highest profit margins

[TheDeuce]

tamore said:

V2G will iron out a lot of problems. leccy from peakers is very expensive so it might bring the overall cost of power down.

That's sort of the next evolution of what I was saying about cars used as grid storage. It requires cars to be built with the ability to feed back, which is already underway.

The future of leccy cost and grid balancing, natural energy, is all about smart tech to bring it all together.

A tad more sophisticated then economy 7!

[HughG]

Assuming 12000miles per year average, and 3.5miles/kWh, that’s 3428kWh per car, that’s 9.4kWh each night.

Assuming 4 hours of cheap rate, that’s 40GWh of spare capacity. So that’s 4.25M cars worth of spare capacity.

[OutInTheShed]

HughG said:

Assuming 12000miles per year average, and 3.5miles/kWh, that’s 3428kWh per car, that’s 9.4kWh each night.

Assuming 4 hours of cheap rate, that’s 40GWh of spare capacity. So that’s 4.25M cars worth of spare capacity.

If I'm understanding you correctly, that 40GWh is what it would take to smooth out demand to being constant day and night?

So the cost of producing the electricity will be constant day and night?
Except that solar should depress prices at noon on sunny days?

[OutInTheShed]

tamore said:

V2G will iron out a lot of problems. leccy from peakers is very expensive so it might bring the overall cost of power down.

V2G is IMHO, largely over-rated bollux.
The amount of energy you can take from an EV's battery without costing a lot in battery wear is somewhere between piddling and negligible.
A lot of people with agendas talking vague.
Maybe it has a significant role in smoothing out short term, as in minute by minute, peaks in demand.

Grid level storage will blow it into the weeds, at some point when energy is expensive and batteries are cheap.

[TheDeuce]

OutInTheShed said:

HughG said:

Assuming 12000miles per year average, and 3.5miles/kWh, that’s 3428kWh per car, that’s 9.4kWh each night.

Assuming 4 hours of cheap rate, that’s 40GWh of spare capacity. So that’s 4.25M cars worth of spare capacity.

If I'm understanding you correctly, that 40GWh is what it would take to smooth out demand to being constant day and night?

So the cost of producing the electricity will be constant day and night?
Except that solar should depress prices at noon on sunny days?

The more solar and wind we seek to capture, the more the dynamic storage attached to the grid needs to grow. You can't put a set figure on it because it depends how much energy is dynamically generated as opposed to a constant power station feed. Speaking of power stations, nuclear is at its best as a constant reaction and I expect nuclear in the UK to play a big part soon.

Can you see how BEV can easily solve the balancing issues? Once the process of charging is 'smart' of course.

[TheDeuce]

OutInTheShed said:

tamore said:

V2G will iron out a lot of problems. leccy from peakers is very expensive so it might bring the overall cost of power down.

V2G is IMHO, largely over-rated bollux.
The amount of energy you can take from an EV's battery without costing a lot in battery wear is somewhere between piddling and negligible.
A lot of people with agendas talking vague.
Maybe it has a significant role in smoothing out short term, as in minute by minute, peaks in demand.

Grid level storage will blow it into the weeds, at some point when energy is expensive and batteries are cheap.

That's partly true. But once charging smart, you don't need V2G really. The cars will charge to absorb the peaks and not be charged so much or so fast In the dips. They ultimately shed the excess power by being driven, not by needing to put that power back to the grid.

Could be very useful in a power cut though..

[tamore]

OutInTheShed said:

The amount of energy you can take from an EV's battery without costing a lot in battery wear is somewhere between piddling and negligible.

latest study into this at any kind of scale (so only one really) is that it's actually beneficial for EV batteries.

10m+ vehicles giving up 1kw/h. piddling and negligible? hardly power your shed, eh?

[Evanivitch]

HughG said:

Assuming 12000miles per year average, and 3.5miles/kWh, that’s 3428kWh per car, that’s 9.4kWh each night.

Assuming 4 hours of cheap rate, that’s 40GWh of spare capacity. So that’s 4.25M cars worth of spare capacity.

Average annual private car mileage is nearer 7,000 miles per annum. Even before Covid.

OutInTheShed said:

V2G is IMHO, largely over-rated bollux.
The amount of energy you can take from an EV's battery without costing a lot in battery wear is somewhere between

Rubbish. A 50kWh car, which is very average these days, can easily put 10kWh for no impact on battery lifetime, and easily at 5kW output. Which is more than enough for an ASHP and electric kitchen appliances during the evening peak demand. Which is all it really needs to achieve, as that's when OCGT and diesel generation find themselves providing STOR.

OutInTheShed said:

Grid level storage will blow it into the weeds, at some point when energy is expensive and batteries are cheap.

And so car batteries can be even bigger and even more effective at providing Vwx services.

Grid storage certainly has a propose, currently that's in grid services like frequency management.

[OutInTheShed]

TheDeuce said:

That's partly true. But once charging smart, you don't need V2G really. The cars will charge to absorb the peaks and not be charged so much or so fast In the dips. They ultimately shed the excess power by being driven, not by needing to put that power back to the grid.

Could be very useful in a power cut though..

Quite right.
In the future, the value of the grid will be more about the ability to take power when needed. The grid functionality will be the valuable service, the power will be a commodity of variable value. It could almost be like water, where you pay a significant amount just to be connected, even if your use is low.

Imagine that 9 days out of 10, your use is met by your own solar panels and battery. The infrastructure needed by he grid is the same as if you draw power 24/7. The value to you of not having the lights go out on day 10 is a big thing that you will pay for. It's like paying for UPS functionality.

[HughG]

OutInTheShed said:

HughG said:

Assuming 12000miles per year average, and 3.5miles/kWh, that’s 3428kWh per car, that’s 9.4kWh each night.

Assuming 4 hours of cheap rate, that’s 40GWh of spare capacity. So that’s 4.25M cars worth of spare capacity.

If I'm understanding you correctly, that 40GWh is what it would take to smooth out demand to being constant day and night?

So the cost of producing the electricity will be constant day and night?
Except that solar should depress prices at noon on sunny days?

Yes I was thinking more about capability to charge than the reduced rate overnight.

[Evanivitch]

TheDeuce said:

That's partly true. But once charging smart, you don't need V2G really. The cars will charge to absorb the peaks and not be charged so much or so fast In the dips. They ultimately shed the excess power by being driven, not by needing to put that power back to the grid.

Could be very useful in a power cut though..

The benefit of V2X is about replacing the STOR capability that is largely met by the most expensive and dirtiest energy providers.

[TheDeuce]

OutInTheShed said:

TheDeuce said:

That's partly true. But once charging smart, you don't need V2G really. The cars will charge to absorb the peaks and not be charged so much or so fast In the dips. They ultimately shed the excess power by being driven, not by needing to put that power back to the grid.

Could be very useful in a power cut though..

Quite right.
In the future, the value of the grid will be more about the ability to take power when needed. The grid functionality will be the valuable service, the power will be a commodity of variable value. It could almost be like water, where you pay a significant amount just to be connected, even if your use is low.

Imagine that 9 days out of 10, your use is met by your own solar panels and battery. The infrastructure needed by he grid is the same as if you draw power 24/7. The value to you of not having the lights go out on day 10 is a big thing that you will pay for. It's like paying for UPS functionality.

I think increasingly the solar power will come from solar farms, far more efficient than private rooftop arrangements. We have one near us under planning review right now, over 2000 acres! That's one of five huge solar farms planned right now. So long as BEV take up continues then in the future we can balance as much solar through the grid as we can generate. In addition to rooftop panels.

I admire your increased interest in these things by the way, you're asking all the right questions about what the future of energy and BEV will look like! Will you soon be buying an EV?

[TheDeuce]

Evanivitch said:

TheDeuce said:

That's partly true. But once charging smart, you don't need V2G really. The cars will charge to absorb the peaks and not be charged so much or so fast In the dips. They ultimately shed the excess power by being driven, not by needing to put that power back to the grid.

Could be very useful in a power cut though..

The benefit of V2X is about replacing the STOR capability that is largely met by the most expensive and dirtiest energy providers.

Today, yes.

But go forward a decade and the national BEV battery headroom, even allowing for different charge requirements of each user, should easily keep pace with power in spikes from wind and solar. And no need to feed back because the cars will use the energy the absorbed anyway. Whatever mix of power stations feed into the grid, they just need to match the average of grid usage. The BEV cushion can do the rest.

All future stuff mind, a lot of policy and evolution of infrastructure needs to happen.

[Evanivitch]

TheDeuce said:

Today, yes.

But go forward a decade and the national BEV battery headroom, even allowing for different charge requirements of each user, should easily keep pace with power in spikes from wind and solar. And no need to feed back because the cars will use the energy the absorbed anyway. Whatever mix of power stations feed into the grid, they just need to match the average of grid usage. The BEV cushion can do the rest.

All future stuff mind, a lot of policy and evolution of infrastructure needs to happen.

The BEV cushion isn't infinite. It's contradictory to argue that the average user only needs circa 7kWh a day and then also say that BEV will.be able to absorb potentially days of high-wind, multi-GW over capacity.

[TheDeuce]

Evanivitch said:

TheDeuce said:

Today, yes.

But go forward a decade and the national BEV battery headroom, even allowing for different charge requirements of each user, should easily keep pace with power in spikes from wind and solar. And no need to feed back because the cars will use the energy the absorbed anyway. Whatever mix of power stations feed into the grid, they just need to match the average of grid usage. The BEV cushion can do the rest.

All future stuff mind, a lot of policy and evolution of infrastructure needs to happen.

The BEV cushion isn't infinite. It's contradictory to argue that the average user only needs circa 7kWh a day and then also say that BEV will.be able to absorb potentially days of high-wind, multi-GW over capacity.

But they will, when all cars are BEV. It's a huge cushion.

We're not there yet but the beauty is that BEV adoption is growing and wind/solar farms can be planned to pace that growth.

Things will never be perfect but the future cushion that BEV provides is unlike anything the grid has had to lean on before. It enables the use of solar and wind on a massive scale in the UK, despite our very inconsistent weather.

[Evanivitch]

TheDeuce said:

But they will, when all cars are BEV. It's a huge cushion.

So why not use it both ways with V2G? If we have a cold, still period in winter, why not at least have the ability to take the juice from the cars instead of relying on long-term storage which may have sat idle for 11 months (ammonia unproven at scale, hydrogen difficult to store long term, batteries unsuitable)