Buying and Brexit

[russy01]

Evening,

I’m currently searching for an M4 to buy as my DD. Budget approx £40k looking to buy outright from a dealer with warranty...

Was chatting to a friend about said scenario and he said I should wait until Brexit has passed...

So... what’s your opinion on this? Do you think Brexit will have a big Impact on used car prices?

If new car prices from Europe increase will the used cars come up with them? Will dealers struggle as buyers halt big purchase decisions and therefore have to reduce used stock to stay afloat? Will nothing happen at all?

Ultimately if the right car for me comes up I will just buy. But interested to hear your opinions.

Cheers

[raspy]

I read a recent report that forecasted used car prices staying flat in 2019. Some EVs/hybrids are appreciating a bit in the short term. I am looking at a used car purchase, but delaying until after Brexit, as I personally think the decline in economic growth will impact consumer confidence, and possibly lead to it becoming a buyer's market in the 2nd half of the year.

[Ken Figenus]

If we crash out though its 20% default tariffs isn't it? Maybel everyone later comes to their senses and realises that agreements not to charge import tariffs on each other (bad for business) may be done with a handshake rather than 200 Mil charge per week? Maybe?

[russy01]

raspy said:

...but delaying until after Brexit, as I personally think the decline in economic growth will impact consumer confidence, and possibly lead to it becoming a buyer's market in the 2nd half of the year.

This is my view on it. Regardless of what the manufacturers do dealers are simply UK businesses who will need to drive sales.

[Welshbeef]

If you think there will be issues and economic problems simply look back to 2008-2012 for a steer on what happened.


But I’d suggest whatever does happen - and you’re assuming BAD news of assuming BAD news ensure you take it on a loan of some kind so that you have an additional £40k in cash nice extra blanket to keep you tucked up.

[raspy]

Welshbeef said:

If you think there will be issues and economic problems simply look back to 2008-2012 for a steer on what happened.


But I’d suggest whatever does happen - and you’re assuming BAD news of assuming BAD news ensure you take it on a loan of some kind so that you have an additional £40k in cash nice extra blanket to keep you tucked up.

Indeed. I remember some luxury vehicles were selling for crazy low prices when the crash happened and people were trying to liquidate assets like cars.

[Welshbeef]

raspy said:

Indeed. I remember some luxury vehicles were selling for crazy low prices when the crash happened and people were trying to liquidate assets like cars.

Exactly - roof over head is all that mattered paying off loans etc.

Then again it might not happen be worse or be indifferent.

Big expensive super saloons could be hammered as moons wants a gas guzzler instead a nice 57 reg polo bluemotion 1.2 TDI for £1-2k would be perfect in every conceivable way.

[Honestherbert]

I am in a similar position but with half your budget and looking at a facelift e60 m5. The majority of cars for sale have been for months and just keep being relisted for sale, sometimes at a higher price than they didn't sell for in the last 2 months! I think most sellers are in denial that the market is stagnating and needs a correction. Im hoping brexit will be the catalyst to make them see sense so Im holding out until then to buy. I very much doubt prices will rise so have nothing to lose if they dont drop a little. I guess it just depends if you are prepared to wait or would risk a potential hit to have the car for the next 4 months.

[nunpuncher]

I think anyone planning a big purchase is already holding off to see what happens. Either due to nerves over their future financial state or if they know that's secure, due to speculation that they may get a bargain in 6 months time. So I think dealers are probably already feeling the pinch.

[AMV]

russy01 said:

Evening,

I’m currently searching for an M4 to buy as my DD. Budget approx £40k looking to buy outright from a dealer with warranty...

Was chatting to a friend about said scenario and he said I should wait until Brexit has passed...

So... what’s your opinion on this? Do you think Brexit will have a big Impact on used car prices?

If new car prices from Europe increase will the used cars come up with them? Will dealers struggle as buyers halt big purchase decisions and therefore have to reduce used stock to stay afloat? Will nothing happen at all?

Ultimately if the right car for me comes up I will just buy. But interested to hear your opinions.

Cheers

I feel that if you have the ability to purchase the car outright you shouldn't really be taking things into account such as Brexit. Cars will always depreciate, but by how much who knows?

I would probably suggest that you buy the car on a PCP should values plummet years to come should you wish to safeguard your investment, however i highly doubt these performance cars will depreciate that much....

Based on this post it seems obvious that you WANT the BMW M4, get on with it enjoy it while you can!

People will always get good and bad deals but its hard to predict when you will get such deals.

[Roger Irrelevant]

I'm not really in the market for a car for the foreseeable future but I have been thinking that if the Brexst hits the fan then it might be a good opportunity to pick up a bargain, like the crazy deals that could be had back in 2008/9. This does make me feel like a bit of a vulture but hey, I didn't vote for the craziness.

[ZX10R NIN]

I'd say buy the M4 & don't wait even with a soft/hard brexit dealers won't be slashing prices on used cars because initially new car prices may even go up which will solidify the used car market.

[Welshbeef]

AMV said:

I feel that if you have the ability to purchase the car outright you shouldn't really be taking things into account such as Brexit. Cars will always depreciate, but by how much who knows?

I would probably suggest that you buy the car on a PCP should values plummet years to come should you wish to safeguard your investment, however i highly doubt these performance cars will depreciate that much....

Based on this post it seems obvious that you WANT the BMW M4, get on with it enjoy it while you can!

People will always get good and bad deals but its hard to predict when you will get such deals.

Disagree with this

OP might only have £40k to his name then living pay cheque to pay cheque - or it’s a tiny drop in the ocean. We don’t know nor want to

[ilikejam]

raspy said:

Welshbeef said:

If you think there will be issues and economic problems simply look back to 2008-2012 for a steer on what happened.


But I’d suggest whatever does happen - and you’re assuming BAD news of assuming BAD news ensure you take it on a loan of some kind so that you have an additional £40k in cash nice extra blanket to keep you tucked up.

Indeed. I remember some luxury vehicles were selling for crazy low prices when the crash happened and people were trying to liquidate assets like cars.

I'd be tempted to wait for this reason, but then I'd no doubt crumble and buy as I'm not good at waiting for stuff.

I live near Aberdeen which had a relatively wealthy population in the mid-2000s due to oil work, with a lot of people working as ltd company contractors - big day rates and flash cars. When the crunch hit the contractors were the first to get ditched and there were stories in the local press about specialist car dealers flying up from London to buy luxury cars on the cheap from folk desperate to sell, then take them back down south for resale at a profit.

No-one really knows what will happen this year though - could go the other way.

[AMV]

Welshbeef said:

Disagree with this

OP might only have £40k to his name then living pay cheque to pay cheque - or it’s a tiny drop in the ocean. We don’t know nor want to

On reflection your totally right i didn't take that into account. I'd hope that hes not living pay cheque to pay cheque and this is simply spare change.

Obviously if you are the former do not take my opinion into consideration.

[russy01]

I think I might sit on my hands, unless the perfect vehicle comes up down the road. I don’t really need a car right now - I am busy throughout Jan and Feb with business and will go on vacation in March. So brexit will come round pretty quickly...

Whilst I am Mr impatient and really want something now - ultimately it’s just going to sit in my work car park covered in crap (live in a rural area) or frost.

I spoke to a dealer today and the PCP deals aren’t bad - but after some fag packet maths I will be considerably better off after say 3yrs buying a lightly used car outright.

Overall I am hoping for a fall in prices due to a fall in consumer buying confidence.

We’ll see...

[Welshbeef]

You might find all up it’s cheaper & risk free going the PCP route.

[russy01]

Welshbeef said:

You might find all up it’s cheaper & risk free going the PCP route.

Or not...

Did the maths with the dealer earlier and it’s not cheaper on PCP. Also not concerned about spending the cash - would not spend that amount of cash if not comfortable with it.

Used PCP - £42k, £5k down and assumed balloon of £20k. 3yrs at £700pm with 8% Apr (bmw saying 12.4%, but assumed I can reduce this). (so £30k and nothing to show)

New PCP - good spec car is £5k down and £900pm at 3.9% apr for 3years (so £37k and nothing to show)

Used cash. Can buy a good spec 1yr old car at £42k cash. Assuming worth £20k after 3yrs as per Used PCP’s balloon.

I know I am comparing new to used etc, but this is my situation and I would not consider buying brand new outright.

So new PCP costs me £37k, Used PCP costs me £30k and used outright costs me £22k and I have full control.

Edited by russy01 on Tuesday 15th January 21:31

[Welshbeef]

Ok so assuming you have 3years salary in cash after the £40k drop To cover any BrEXIt issues

[russy01]

Welshbeef said:

Ok so assuming you have 3years salary in cash after the £40k drop To cover any BrEXIt issues

I’m not giving any further details on what cash I have. But I am spending an amount of money which is comfortable to me and does not leave me exposed financially.