Buying Advice / Used Residual

[Kaktus]

Hi guys

I recently sold my car and I am in the market for a replacement. I have been strongly considering a mini hatch or countryman and started looking at 2011-2014 used ones but the more I read/research the more worried I am getting by models of both cars in those years. So the next logical step was to look at much newer ones and I have had my eye on this one (link below) but can't get more than 500 discount off it. The dealer is prepared to walk away.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201...

I did think about pulling the trigger on it at 24,500 on the basis that the dealer told me the car would be worth 20k when I come to sell it in 12 months time (I will likely need to sell at that point in time due to personal circumstances). However, after reading this thread (below) I am now much more concerned that I may have a really hard time selling the car in 12 months for anywhere near where the dealer is telling me the value should be:

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...


So now I'm kind of back to square one and to be honest getting really frustrated. Ideally I would love to lease it but I can't take a 24 month lease as I won't be around to use it. Would really appreciate some advice on how to proceed. Can I rent one for long term rental?



TLDR: feel like driving a mini hatch/countryman for 12 months and then need to sell it. Worried about being able to sell as it looks like market for used cars is dead. Reading up on used mini hatches and countrymans between 2011-2014 suggests they have major problems so I dont know what to look out for or what is a good deal. Buying a new 2017/2018 means I may have real trouble selling it in 12 months and likely lose a lot more in depreciation than I am budgeting for (ideally no more than 10-15% but maximum 20%)

some examples of used ones I am looking at:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201...

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201...

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/201...

Edited by Kaktus on Sunday 20th January 04:51

[The Moose]

Wanna know what that new one will be worth (retail) in 12 month? Look at the same thing that’s a year older. Not perfect, but not a bad guide.

I could conceivably see the car worth 4,500 less in 12 months...for them to sell out, not what you’d get back.

[Raino144]

Why not put both the registration of that car and one on sale a year older though WBAC? That way you can find out both the depreciation, and the dealer margin (retail less trade price) which will be the true cost to you over the year.

[Jamescrs]

For what it's worth my wife has a 14 plate Countryman Cooper and it hasn't put a foot wrong in the 18 months she has owned it apart from a very occasional issue with the drivers door sensor and it says the door is open when it isn't, seems to reset itself after the car is locked though with the fob and it's so infrequent I can't take it to a garage to be checked as they won't find the fault in all likelihood, in fact the problem hasn't happened at all for months (touch wood).

If you are only planning on keeping the car for 12 months though is it really worth buying a higher value car? personally i'd be lookig at something for a couple of grand if its only 12 months, even if you scrap it at the end you will lose less than the Mini will depreciate in that time

[Croutons]

If you have to sell in a year, why on earth are you buying, knowing that it will cost you 4500 min in that time, when you could find a 12 month lease on anything else which is brand new, under warranty, won't need tyres/ brakes whatever in a year, and you hand it back and won't have the hassle of sale? That gives you 360pcm to play with, which in leasing land is healthy.

Especially if it's worth 20k on a year, to whom is it worth 20k? If it's 20 on a forecourt it's 17 in your pocket . If you can find a buyer.

[Edible Roadkill]

As already said above, 12months is no time at all, why would you commit to taking a 4.5k+ (Probably more) bath on a very mediocre car!?

Personally I’d be looking to buy something with a years mot on it for around 4-5K and try and get as much as that back in 12 months time. Or take a 12 month lease on something suitable.

Does it need to be a mini? If I knew I was running a car for just 12 months I’d be just getting something based around 12 months exit plan, not based around a mini badge unless you really like losing money?

[Edible Roadkill]

12 month lease example - https://leasing.com/independent-brokers/bestcarfin...

[Kaktus]

Raino144 said:

Why not put both the registration of that car and one on sale a year older though WBAC? That way you can find out both the depreciation, and the dealer margin (retail less trade price) which will be the true cost to you over the year.

I did that, WBAC price made no sense. It suggests the value of an 8 month old countryman, fully loaded with 5000 miles is 20.1k today. 1 year older price suggestion is 16k

Obviously these figures are nonsensical since you can't find any comparable examples for anywhere even close to those prices

[ZX10R NIN]

In your circumstances it's madness to buy, I'd say take up a lease for 12 months.

[Kaktus]

Croutons said:

If you have to sell in a year, why on earth are you buying, knowing that it will cost you 4500 min in that time, when you could find a 12 month lease on anything else which is brand new, under warranty, won't need tyres/ brakes whatever in a year, and you hand it back and won't have the hassle of sale? That gives you 360pcm to play with, which in leasing land is healthy.

Especially if it's worth 20k on a year, to whom is it worth 20k? If it's 20 on a forecourt it's 17 in your pocket . If you can find a buyer.

I Couldn't find a 12 month Lease on a mini anywhere and didn't fancy spending £300+ per month on a different car I didn't really want to have

If I could find a mini rental for 12 months that would be ideal

[The Moose]

Kaktus said:

Raino144 said:

Why not put both the registration of that car and one on sale a year older though WBAC? That way you can find out both the depreciation, and the dealer margin (retail less trade price) which will be the true cost to you over the year.

I did that, WBAC price made no sense. It suggests the value of an 8 month old countryman, fully loaded with 5000 miles is 20.1k today. 1 year older price suggestion is 16k

Obviously these figures are nonsensical since you can't find any comparable examples for anywhere even close to those prices

You do realize that WBAC is effectively a trade-bid on the car?

They would buy an 8 month old car for £20,100, put it through their auction and it’d sell to a dealer for £22,000. This would then be put on the forecourt for £25,000 (sound familiar?).

A 20 month old car would be bought for £16,000, sell at auction for £17,750 and advertise for sale at £20,000.

Yes, the value of the car in 12 months time will be £20,000...but that’s retail, not what you’d be paid for it. So if you paid £24,500 for it, you would lose £8,500 in 12 months...unless you find a private buyer to pay more.

[Fox-]

Kaktus said:

I did that, WBAC price made no sense. It suggests the value of an 8 month old countryman, fully loaded with 5000 miles is 20.1k today. 1 year older price suggestion is 16k

Obviously these figures are nonsensical since you can't find any comparable examples for anywhere even close to those prices

They are not nonsensical at all. They are trade prices - take the 8 month old one for example, its worth about £20k trade as WBAC suggests. Then a dealer has to purchase it, prepare it, retail it, etc etc - giving you a retail price of about £24k which is exactly what you are trying to get one for from a dealer.

Therefore it is entirely reasonable to expect to be offered circa £16k for tradein on that Countryman in a years time.

Do not forget there are two forms of loss on a car - firstly you lose the dealer margin from the moment you drive the car away. Then you lose the cars natural depreciation. So, the Mini probably does lose £4k of true value over 12 months - but in addition to that you have the loss you incur from buying retail and selling trade. Loss that would exist even if you bought it now and immediately drove it to WBAC.

[Kaktus]

Fox- said:

They are not nonsensical at all. They are trade prices - take the 8 month old one for example, its worth about £20k trade as WBAC suggests. Then a dealer has to purchase it, prepare it, retail it, etc etc - giving you a retail price of about £24k which is exactly what you are trying to get one for from a dealer.

Therefore it is entirely reasonable to expect to be offered circa £16k for tradein on that Countryman in a years time.

Do not forget there are two forms of loss on a car - firstly you lose the dealer margin from the moment you drive the car away. Then you lose the cars natural depreciation. So, the Mini probably does lose £4k of true value over 12 months - but in addition to that you have the loss you incur from buying retail and selling trade. Loss that would exist even if you bought it now and immediately drove it to WBAC.

Ok, well that is the difference in understanding then. It was my understanding that "trade price" on that car is 22-23k today with the dealer expecting to make 2-3k profit on it. WBAC would be the pre-auction price. 5k difference between trade and retail seems excessively high especially when retail is prepared to walk away after a 250 pound discount which suggests their margins are razor thin.

[Edible Roadkill]

Also wbac will never offer you the screen price.

I took in a car a few months back. The screen price was 1200odd quid more than the offer on the day. They counted a few smart repairs, a kurbed alloy and 1x body shop repair as their reasoning for the substantial price difference. I reckon it was a few hundred quid ‘damage’ using the term lightly as it was really normal road wear on a car used daily on the road.

Honestly for a years motoring this is going to work our very expensive.

[jamei303]

If I had a mini I’d definitely lease it to you for 12 months for 4000 and take out a lease on something nicer to tide me over and make a profit.

[Kaktus]

jamei303 said:

If I had a mini I’d definitely lease it to you for 12 months for 4000 and take out a lease on something nicer to tide me over and make a profit.

That's good, did you write that one down?

[Kaktus]

Edible Roadkill said:

Also wbac will never offer you the screen price.

I took in a car a few months back. The screen price was 1200odd quid more than the offer on the day. They counted a few smart repairs, a kurbed alloy and 1x body shop repair as their reasoning for the substantial price difference. I reckon it was a few hundred quid ‘damage’ using the term lightly as it was really normal road wear on a car used daily on the road.

Honestly for a years motoring this is going to work our very expensive.

Ok well then i guess I should just rent something for 12 months as cheap as possible because I certainly don't want to spend 5k on an auto banger off AT or 5k for a manual lease on a car I don't want.

[Edible Roadkill]

Hah well you did kind of ask for advice so it’s been given.

Would it be better received if I said that mini deal is amazing....I think you should buy it before someone else does and you’ll definitely not have your pants dropped in a years time come resale!?

A 12 month dip in and out of a nearly new car unless it’s something highly sought after is never going to come recommended.

[Croutons]

Why are you desperate to drive a mini?

Here's a good example of losing dough, 2016 car on AT. 28k new, not 3 years old, sub 17...

[Croutons]

Here's the link.

http://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/2019...