Fortune favours the brave
Discussion
I think we are a few months away from the arse falling out of the market in a visible way but it is coming. I see there are various threads about people handing back leases early etc., already so I wonder if there will be an oversupply of 3-4 year old cars that people hand back at the end of PCP. It will be a great time to buy things that were overpriced in the recent frothy market.
Any ideas for a good way to measure the market? I'd be interested in a couple of particular things (Z4 Coupe, S2 Exige etc.) that I think were overpriced before. Other than sifting through ads (which tells little since asking price is not the same as sale price), what is a good monthly resource for monitoring the market?
Any ideas for a good way to measure the market? I'd be interested in a couple of particular things (Z4 Coupe, S2 Exige etc.) that I think were overpriced before. Other than sifting through ads (which tells little since asking price is not the same as sale price), what is a good monthly resource for monitoring the market?
pixelmix said:
Any ideas for a good way to measure the market? I'd be interested in a couple of particular things (Z4 Coupe, S2 Exige etc.) that I think were overpriced before. Other than sifting through ads (which tells little since asking price is not the same as sale price), what is a good monthly resource for monitoring the market?
I don't think there is a good resource for that yet but if you monitor adverts you can see which cars sell, and which ones just sit there. Luckily I sold my Z4 Coupe last month (even if it was for a bargain price), but it had to go because I bought a Z4M Coupe in December that had to go before Christmas!
Was using Autotrader app to play the usual game of what might I buy next or if I won lotto etc. An range rover velar black seems to have dropped 7k they were i recall advertised at 52k start of feb now seeing a few around 45k with zero miles etc. Might just be pre reg stock but its latest model witja fee extra boxes ticked. I saw a few RRS as well cheaper than normal. My guess end of April if we are still all working from home / unemployed then prices will fall. Sure everyone remembers 2008 with 500k F40s etc. I suspect we will see similar this time plus lots of PCP cars handed back. Still i would advise anyone to think do I need a new car or food etc....make the right choice
i think the market will shrink in terms of cars for sale as most will just hold onto what they've got so prices will remain similar to what they are now WBAC & the like will cut their buying price because they can & they'll help themselves to a healthier margin, also because cars will take longer to sell they've left themselves some extra margin.
Jamescrs said:
I'm quite sceptical that we are going to see a big crash in the used car market, in some respects it would be a great opportunity personally but I don't see it happening. I could be wrong of course depending on how long things rage on.
I can't see it happening either..... It already feels that used cars are kept inflated for whatever reason. With all these lease deals and people handing the cars back after 2-3 years you'd have thought that the used car market would offer value but it just doesn't seem that way and sometimes a 2 year old car isn't priced that much lower than a new one, especially when you take the 20 percent Vat off the price of new cars.
It's a weird situation. I'm thinking about changing my car and have the cash to do it. My job is secure. I've been offered a decent part ex and a fair discount on a well priced car. Do I go for it or wait? Yes, prices might fall, but that will include my part-ex. If the deal feels ok and is one I'd have been happy with a few weeks ago, why shouldn't I go for it?
Dolf Stoppard said:
It's a weird situation. I'm thinking about changing my car and have the cash to do it. My job is secure. I've been offered a decent part ex and a fair discount on a well priced car. Do I go for it or wait? Yes, prices might fall, but that will include my part-ex. If the deal feels ok and is one I'd have been happy with a few weeks ago, why shouldn't I go for it?
If you're not planning on changing the car you buy for some years, then theres probably no reason not to.Mr Tidy said:
I don't think there is a good resource for that yet but if you monitor adverts you can see which cars sell, and which ones just sit there.
Luckily I sold my Z4 Coupe last month (even if it was for a bargain price), but it had to go because I bought a Z4M Coupe in December that had to go before Christmas!
Lucky boy! I've been looking at Z4M auctions on Collecting Cars. A few recent auctions (a few months back) seem to have dipped since the heady figures earlier last year. It's hard to read too much into a couple of auctions though.Luckily I sold my Z4 Coupe last month (even if it was for a bargain price), but it had to go because I bought a Z4M Coupe in December that had to go before Christmas!
I'm starting to compile a list of relevant ads for a few cars
pixelmix said:
Mr Tidy said:
I don't think there is a good resource for that yet but if you monitor adverts you can see which cars sell, and which ones just sit there.
Luckily I sold my Z4 Coupe last month (even if it was for a bargain price), but it had to go because I bought a Z4M Coupe in December that had to go before Christmas!
Lucky boy! I've been looking at Z4M auctions on Collecting Cars. A few recent auctions (a few months back) seem to have dipped since the heady figures earlier last year. It's hard to read too much into a couple of auctions though.Luckily I sold my Z4 Coupe last month (even if it was for a bargain price), but it had to go because I bought a Z4M Coupe in December that had to go before Christmas!
I'm starting to compile a list of relevant ads for a few cars
Deep Thought said:
Similar here. We've a 2019 M140i and a 2006 330i. I've been toying with the idea of changing the 330i and a few things have fallen in to place recently that would allow me to do that, but the 330i is pretty much now garaged up as i now am working from home for the forseeable. We could also be very soon be on lockdown across the UK meaning even less need to drive.
Hard to justify a Boxster S or M3 if it wont / cant be driven. On top of that buying now could see its value drop by 30% in a matter of months - something i really would like to avoid.
You could look at it another way though. Hard to justify a Boxster S or M3 if it wont / cant be driven. On top of that buying now could see its value drop by 30% in a matter of months - something i really would like to avoid.
If things go horribly wrong you may never have another opportunity to enjoy a Boxster S or M3 and then you might wish you had, regardless of values!
After the shops closed I took my Z4M Coupe for a drive on quiet roads yesterday, and it made me so glad I had bought it.
But if I go shopping later I'll use the 55 plate 330i daily because I'm slightly less bothered about trolley rash (only slightly though).
Mr Tidy said:
You could look at it another way though.
If things go horribly wrong you may never have another opportunity to enjoy a Boxster S or M3 and then you might wish you had, regardless of values!
After the shops closed I took my Z4M Coupe for a drive on quiet roads yesterday, and it made me so glad I had bought it.
Exactly. The fact that the world is apparently coming to an end means the roads are virtually empty, and if you have a fun car it's fabulous - especially in the weather we had this weekend. I drove down to Goodwood on Saturday morning, and barely saw another car - it was brilliant fun.If things go horribly wrong you may never have another opportunity to enjoy a Boxster S or M3 and then you might wish you had, regardless of values!
After the shops closed I took my Z4M Coupe for a drive on quiet roads yesterday, and it made me so glad I had bought it.
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