Predictions for when the new/used car market will collapse?
Discussion
... to its lowest point and thus when is the optimal time to strike for a new or used car (luxury or econobox, to use an American slang).
So, my prediction based on the below factors:
December '20 (Q4)
• COVID-19 impacts / constraints set in (assumes there is no second wave).
• Brexit (this will be a car crash, excuse the pun)
• New cars - Car manufacturer's financial year end, thus dealers will be further incentivised to improve year end sales figures. Not sure when financial year end is for all manufactures, but BMW, Audi and Merc appear to be end of December based on their financial calendars
• Consumer confidence - we will be getting a clearer picture on the economic outlook and how organisations will respond to the COVID-19 / Brexit impacts. This will contribute to decision making, e.g. sell off luxury cars before a deeper economic crash in 2021 (all speculative).
• Used cars – could be looking at Q1 ’21 if organisations start lean out their operations (or worse, go under) which could trigger a fire sale ahead of UK financial year end.
This may seem insensitive, but people will be thinking about this.
Discuss.
So, my prediction based on the below factors:
December '20 (Q4)
• COVID-19 impacts / constraints set in (assumes there is no second wave).
• Brexit (this will be a car crash, excuse the pun)
• New cars - Car manufacturer's financial year end, thus dealers will be further incentivised to improve year end sales figures. Not sure when financial year end is for all manufactures, but BMW, Audi and Merc appear to be end of December based on their financial calendars
• Consumer confidence - we will be getting a clearer picture on the economic outlook and how organisations will respond to the COVID-19 / Brexit impacts. This will contribute to decision making, e.g. sell off luxury cars before a deeper economic crash in 2021 (all speculative).
• Used cars – could be looking at Q1 ’21 if organisations start lean out their operations (or worse, go under) which could trigger a fire sale ahead of UK financial year end.
This may seem insensitive, but people will be thinking about this.
Discuss.
With all the present uncertainty who knows what will happen.
People are worried about work, redundancies etc so i think spare cash for a car purchase, unless its required for work will be way down on the priority list.
But the way it looks, no one will be going on holiday abroad this year, so they may use that cash buy a new car instead.
Who knows......strange times indeed.
People are worried about work, redundancies etc so i think spare cash for a car purchase, unless its required for work will be way down on the priority list.
But the way it looks, no one will be going on holiday abroad this year, so they may use that cash buy a new car instead.
Who knows......strange times indeed.
For those hoping for decent deals on new, you have to remember that manufacturers now dont want you buying cars like Focus RS, Gokf GTI etc since now they need their emissions down well below the average cars output. You will probably see good deals on PHEV and electric but you only need to look at RRPs to know the emissions requirement will be the biggest issue, for example MX5 in 2018 was £18995. Now it is £23995.
rockingron said:
dont think it will happen i just bought a car from independant , been open 2 weeks and they have sold 86 cars in that time, they cant keep up
But how many cars would they have sold in the same period if not for lockdown? If it's 200 then they are 114 cars down!I think there will be lots of people who were about to buy with cash pre-lockdown (me) who will rush out and buy something (not me).
Let's not judge the market before it's even properly reopened.
Edited by Dolf Stoppard on Thursday 28th May 07:41
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