The state of the used car market: 5 year+ outlook
Discussion
Apologies for another what car thread but I can't quite find the advice I'm looking for out there.
I'm seeking a new car for our house (In addition to a diesel Kia Sportage 2 '17) and the wife will drive it shortish miles with 2 babies say 100 to 150 miles a week ideally on nice leather seats. I'd say we'd be best keeping it for around 5 years and would ideally like for it to be worth around half what we paid for it then.
The issue at the moment is that I stupidly said that it would be nice to get something with a badge e.g. merc, bmw, jag etc up to around £15k. She's very happy at that prospect. Now having done a but more research its seems to me that her mileage is ideally suited to an electric but electric cars with a badge are ridiculous dough. I haven't ruled out any other fuel types though and I'm seeing a lot of diesels with low mpg, c2017 well within our budget conversely it seems that petrol aren't as cheap pound for pound and don't offer the same mpg. The last time I was buying I'm sure petrol were much cheaper. The only benefit I see in buying a petrol over a diesel is the potential for DPF failures under consistently short runs which I believe can be sorted with a 15 to 30min motorway trip every couple of weeks.
So ultimately my question comes down to fuel type and the sustainability of the combustion types is their relative ’cheapness’ a false economy. In real terms does 15k only get you an old golf or a granny mobile these days? or am I giving electric too much credit? How would you play the next 5 years?
ULEZ is clearly going to start getting rolled out to other cities in the uk imminently perhaps worst case this might start getting ratched up to all combustion engines in the next 5 to 10 years and our 15k spent today will be worth very little. But the cynic in me understands that the majority cars are combustion and cosntruction plant, business and agri runs on diesel, dyed or otherwise so ramping something like this up so quickly is hopefully very unlikely. I also have a suspicion that with more affordable electrics coming out this year (e.g. Skoda Enyak a serial box ticker) that electric cars may actually start to come down quite dramatically (after the semiconductor shortages work themselves out) within my 5 year time frame.
Here's a few cars/brands I'm looking at generally 70 to 100k with fsh.
Electric
BMW I3 (high mileage options in my budget)
Nissan leaf
Golf (older versions in my budget)
MG
B class (Granny number)
though replacement battery cost risk would make your eyes water！
Hybrid
Toyota CH-R 2018 in budget. I think Toyota hybrids are the only ones I would buy.
Diesel/ Petrol (Range from 12k to 16k)
Mercedes A/C/CLA (2016,17 and 18 at a push). Also GLA.
BMW 1, 3 and x1 16/17.
Audi Q5, perhaps Q3. 16/17 just sneaking into the budget.
I'm seeking a new car for our house (In addition to a diesel Kia Sportage 2 '17) and the wife will drive it shortish miles with 2 babies say 100 to 150 miles a week ideally on nice leather seats. I'd say we'd be best keeping it for around 5 years and would ideally like for it to be worth around half what we paid for it then.
The issue at the moment is that I stupidly said that it would be nice to get something with a badge e.g. merc, bmw, jag etc up to around £15k. She's very happy at that prospect. Now having done a but more research its seems to me that her mileage is ideally suited to an electric but electric cars with a badge are ridiculous dough. I haven't ruled out any other fuel types though and I'm seeing a lot of diesels with low mpg, c2017 well within our budget conversely it seems that petrol aren't as cheap pound for pound and don't offer the same mpg. The last time I was buying I'm sure petrol were much cheaper. The only benefit I see in buying a petrol over a diesel is the potential for DPF failures under consistently short runs which I believe can be sorted with a 15 to 30min motorway trip every couple of weeks.
So ultimately my question comes down to fuel type and the sustainability of the combustion types is their relative ’cheapness’ a false economy. In real terms does 15k only get you an old golf or a granny mobile these days? or am I giving electric too much credit? How would you play the next 5 years?
ULEZ is clearly going to start getting rolled out to other cities in the uk imminently perhaps worst case this might start getting ratched up to all combustion engines in the next 5 to 10 years and our 15k spent today will be worth very little. But the cynic in me understands that the majority cars are combustion and cosntruction plant, business and agri runs on diesel, dyed or otherwise so ramping something like this up so quickly is hopefully very unlikely. I also have a suspicion that with more affordable electrics coming out this year (e.g. Skoda Enyak a serial box ticker) that electric cars may actually start to come down quite dramatically (after the semiconductor shortages work themselves out) within my 5 year time frame.
Here's a few cars/brands I'm looking at generally 70 to 100k with fsh.
Electric
BMW I3 (high mileage options in my budget)
Nissan leaf
Golf (older versions in my budget)
MG
B class (Granny number)
though replacement battery cost risk would make your eyes water！
Hybrid
Toyota CH-R 2018 in budget. I think Toyota hybrids are the only ones I would buy.
Diesel/ Petrol (Range from 12k to 16k)
Mercedes A/C/CLA (2016,17 and 18 at a push). Also GLA.
BMW 1, 3 and x1 16/17.
Audi Q5, perhaps Q3. 16/17 just sneaking into the budget.
Don't wait about to see what the market will do. Nobody knows what it will do. Cars could get even more expensive. If you need a car, get one. I wouldn't be getting a diesel with those miles you do though.
If you go electric, will you have somewhere at home to charge it? Bear in mind it'll take a month or so to get an outside charger installed and it'll cost you about £600. By far the cheapest to run though
Nissan Leaf
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202107064...
Renault Zoe - be careful not to pick one with a leased battery, unless you fancy paying another whack of money every month
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108206...
Hybrids
BMW i3 REX
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202106133...
Hyundai Ioniq
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108186...
Lexus CT200h
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108055...
Toyota Auris
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108126...
If you or your wife have the discipline to charge it every other day, what about a petrol plug in hybrid? They can be very cheap to run. I have an Audi A3 e-tron that's averaging over 700 miles to a tank of petrol. They'll be a bit older than what you are looking for though. No tax either on these pre-2017 models. I think they make a nice stepping stone to full EV ownership.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202107064...
Or it's sister the VW Golf GTE
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202106224...
If you go electric, will you have somewhere at home to charge it? Bear in mind it'll take a month or so to get an outside charger installed and it'll cost you about £600. By far the cheapest to run though
Nissan Leaf
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202107064...
Renault Zoe - be careful not to pick one with a leased battery, unless you fancy paying another whack of money every month
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108206...
Hybrids
BMW i3 REX
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202106133...
Hyundai Ioniq
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108186...
Lexus CT200h
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108055...
Toyota Auris
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108126...
If you or your wife have the discipline to charge it every other day, what about a petrol plug in hybrid? They can be very cheap to run. I have an Audi A3 e-tron that's averaging over 700 miles to a tank of petrol. They'll be a bit older than what you are looking for though. No tax either on these pre-2017 models. I think they make a nice stepping stone to full EV ownership.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202107064...
Or it's sister the VW Golf GTE
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202106224...
Jamaker said:
Apologies for another what car thread but I can't quite find the advice I'm looking for out there.
I'm seeking a new car for our house (In addition to a diesel Kia Sportage 2 '17) and the wife will drive it shortish miles with 2 babies say 100 to 150 miles a week ideally on nice leather seats. I'd say we'd be best keeping it for around 5 years and would ideally like for it to be worth around half what we paid for it then.
The issue at the moment is that I stupidly said that it would be nice to get something with a badge e.g. merc, bmw, jag etc up to around £15k. She's very happy at that prospect. Now having done a but more research its seems to me that her mileage is ideally suited to an electric but electric cars with a badge are ridiculous dough. I haven't ruled out any other fuel types though and I'm seeing a lot of diesels with low mpg, c2017 well within our budget conversely it seems that petrol aren't as cheap pound for pound and don't offer the same mpg. The last time I was buying I'm sure petrol were much cheaper. The only benefit I see in buying a petrol over a diesel is the potential for DPF failures under consistently short runs which I believe can be sorted with a 15 to 30min motorway trip every couple of weeks.
So ultimately my question comes down to fuel type and the sustainability of the combustion types is their relative ’cheapness’ a false economy. In real terms does 15k only get you an old golf or a granny mobile these days? or am I giving electric too much credit? How would you play the next 5 years?
ULEZ is clearly going to start getting rolled out to other cities in the uk imminently perhaps worst case this might start getting ratched up to all combustion engines in the next 5 to 10 years and our 15k spent today will be worth very little. But the cynic in me understands that the majority cars are combustion and cosntruction plant, business and agri runs on diesel, dyed or otherwise so ramping something like this up so quickly is hopefully very unlikely. I also have a suspicion that with more affordable electrics coming out this year (e.g. Skoda Enyak a serial box ticker) that electric cars may actually start to come down quite dramatically (after the semiconductor shortages work themselves out) within my 5 year time frame.
Here's a few cars/brands I'm looking at generally 70 to 100k with fsh.
Electric
BMW I3 (high mileage options in my budget)
Nissan leaf
Golf (older versions in my budget)
MG
B class (Granny number)
though replacement battery cost risk would make your eyes water?
Hybrid
Toyota CH-R 2018 in budget. I think Toyota hybrids are the only ones I would buy.
Diesel/ Petrol (Range from 12k to 16k)
Mercedes A/C/CLA (2016,17 and 18 at a push). Also GLA.
BMW 1, 3 and x1 16/17.
Audi Q5, perhaps Q3. 16/17 just sneaking into the budget.
If you're considering the A Class/GLA then I'd go for the Infiniti Q30 (it's the same car as the A ?Class/GLA even down to the window switches) but you can get a highly spec'd one with low miles in budget.I'm seeking a new car for our house (In addition to a diesel Kia Sportage 2 '17) and the wife will drive it shortish miles with 2 babies say 100 to 150 miles a week ideally on nice leather seats. I'd say we'd be best keeping it for around 5 years and would ideally like for it to be worth around half what we paid for it then.
The issue at the moment is that I stupidly said that it would be nice to get something with a badge e.g. merc, bmw, jag etc up to around £15k. She's very happy at that prospect. Now having done a but more research its seems to me that her mileage is ideally suited to an electric but electric cars with a badge are ridiculous dough. I haven't ruled out any other fuel types though and I'm seeing a lot of diesels with low mpg, c2017 well within our budget conversely it seems that petrol aren't as cheap pound for pound and don't offer the same mpg. The last time I was buying I'm sure petrol were much cheaper. The only benefit I see in buying a petrol over a diesel is the potential for DPF failures under consistently short runs which I believe can be sorted with a 15 to 30min motorway trip every couple of weeks.
So ultimately my question comes down to fuel type and the sustainability of the combustion types is their relative ’cheapness’ a false economy. In real terms does 15k only get you an old golf or a granny mobile these days? or am I giving electric too much credit? How would you play the next 5 years?
ULEZ is clearly going to start getting rolled out to other cities in the uk imminently perhaps worst case this might start getting ratched up to all combustion engines in the next 5 to 10 years and our 15k spent today will be worth very little. But the cynic in me understands that the majority cars are combustion and cosntruction plant, business and agri runs on diesel, dyed or otherwise so ramping something like this up so quickly is hopefully very unlikely. I also have a suspicion that with more affordable electrics coming out this year (e.g. Skoda Enyak a serial box ticker) that electric cars may actually start to come down quite dramatically (after the semiconductor shortages work themselves out) within my 5 year time frame.
Here's a few cars/brands I'm looking at generally 70 to 100k with fsh.
Electric
BMW I3 (high mileage options in my budget)
Nissan leaf
Golf (older versions in my budget)
MG
B class (Granny number)
though replacement battery cost risk would make your eyes water?
Hybrid
Toyota CH-R 2018 in budget. I think Toyota hybrids are the only ones I would buy.
Diesel/ Petrol (Range from 12k to 16k)
Mercedes A/C/CLA (2016,17 and 18 at a push). Also GLA.
BMW 1, 3 and x1 16/17.
Audi Q5, perhaps Q3. 16/17 just sneaking into the budget.
Sit her in one & she won't worry about the badge:
Petrol
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108136...
Diesel
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108176...
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108186...
Again next size (Q5 sized) the QX50 is hard to beat & the wife won't feel short changed:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108176...
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202106013...
All the above are ULEZ/CAZ compliant so that won't be an issue in the future.
Hybrid wise the Lexus is a very good shout:
RX450h
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108216...
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202107134...
GS450h
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202105072...
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108136...
IS300
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202107094...
535i Active Hybrid
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202010094...
Something like a 3.0i X5 won't be an expensive car to run:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108055...
428i Gran Coupe
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108146...
As you can see there are a wealth of options so working out what vehicle your OH wants then narrow down the drivetrain options.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108096...
georgeyboy12345 said:
Renault Zoe - be careful not to pick one with a leased battery, unless you fancy paying another whack of money every month
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108206...
Battery lease Zoe's do have the advantage that you pay roughly £3k less up front (but from £49 a month) and the battery is warranted indefinitely, rather than just for 8 years. You also have the option to buy out the battery in future. So it can work for some people. It did for me.https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108206...
Lil_Red_GTV said:
georgeyboy12345 said:
Renault Zoe - be careful not to pick one with a leased battery, unless you fancy paying another whack of money every month
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108206...
Battery lease Zoe's do have the advantage that you pay roughly £3k less up front (but from £49 a month) and the battery is warranted indefinitely, rather than just for 8 years. You also have the option to buy out the battery in future. So it can work for some people. It did for me.https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108206...
Sure. The numbers typically still favour ICE in most cases. The Zoe was much nicer to drive than an equivalent ICE though, and as a bargain used buy a couple of years ago the total cost of ownership probably wasn't much more.
Re: the OP's question, I don't see ICE values being significantly undermined in the next 5 years, as I think it will take longer than that for the majority of the public to really cotton on to EV's. Beyond 5 years, though, things may well turn as new EVs become more affordable, start to dominate new sales, and more used examples filter down through the market.
Re: the OP's question, I don't see ICE values being significantly undermined in the next 5 years, as I think it will take longer than that for the majority of the public to really cotton on to EV's. Beyond 5 years, though, things may well turn as new EVs become more affordable, start to dominate new sales, and more used examples filter down through the market.
PH User said:
Give her the Kia and that will free you up to get something exciting.
^ This. Driving pleasure is being rapidly attacked and destroyed by Governments, Local Authorities, over crowding and those who worship Greta. Get something that makes you smile when you start it up; it's a male prerogative as far as I'm concerned.
ZX10R NIN said:
Something like a 3.0i X5 won't be an expensive car to run:
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108055...
Horribly off topic and I can only apologise but... is that a metal baseball bat in the boot in picture 11? Goodness me https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202108055...
Thanks for the replies particularly Georgey and ZX10R NIN. There are some excellent suggestions I hadn't considered in there. I particularly like the look of the infinity the worry is that with so few of them on the road would any of their parts specific to them and not generic Nissan (or merc) parts be hard to get. I got stung once when the gearbox went in a six speed petrol mk 5 golf a car I never thought I'd struggle to get parts for.
Also my concern with ulez is that they make it more stringent in a few years and /or car taxs rise steeply for ice cars, if it happens in 7 years say, car prices will plummet well in advance of that. I suppose you'd just hold on to it then until the tax burden was too much. So if that does turn out to be the case I should be looking at something future proof in terms of size for the family.
I'll take a look at lexus too as it seems like they tick all the boxes.
Also I'm sad enough to enjoy driving the sportage. I'm coming from a dead as door nail citroen berlingo so anything is more enjoyable to drive.
Also my concern with ulez is that they make it more stringent in a few years and /or car taxs rise steeply for ice cars, if it happens in 7 years say, car prices will plummet well in advance of that. I suppose you'd just hold on to it then until the tax burden was too much. So if that does turn out to be the case I should be looking at something future proof in terms of size for the family.
I'll take a look at lexus too as it seems like they tick all the boxes.
Also I'm sad enough to enjoy driving the sportage. I'm coming from a dead as door nail citroen berlingo so anything is more enjoyable to drive.
Edited by Jamaker on Sunday 22 August 11:56
formatting etcEdited by Jamaker on Sunday 22 August 12:31
Jamaker said:
Thanks for the replies particularly Georgey and ZX10R NIN. There are some excellent suggestions I hadn't considered in there. I particularly like the look of the infinity the worry is that with so few of them on the road would any of their parts specific to them and not generic Nissan (or merc) parts be hard to get. I got stung once when the gearbox went in a six speed petrol mk 5 golf a car I never thought I'd struggle to get parts for.
Also my concern with ulez is that they make it more stringent in a few years and /or car taxs rise steeply for ice cars, if it happens in 7 years say, car prices will plummet well in advance of that. I suppose you'd just hold on to it then until the tax burden was too much. So if that does turn out to be the case I should be looking at something future proof in terms of size for the family.
I'll take a look at lexus too as it seems like they tick all the boxes.
Also I'm sad enough to enjoy driving the sportage. I'm coming from a dead as door nail citroen berlingo so anything is more enjoyable to drive.
Parts on the Infiniti are pretty much universal, if you went for a Q30 every part of that car is Mercedes apart from the actaul sheet metal.Also my concern with ulez is that they make it more stringent in a few years and /or car taxs rise steeply for ice cars, if it happens in 7 years say, car prices will plummet well in advance of that. I suppose you'd just hold on to it then until the tax burden was too much. So if that does turn out to be the case I should be looking at something future proof in terms of size for the family.
I'll take a look at lexus too as it seems like they tick all the boxes.
Also I'm sad enough to enjoy driving the sportage. I'm coming from a dead as door nail citroen berlingo so anything is more enjoyable to drive.
Infiniti's are sold as Nissans & all the parts that aren't Mercedes on the Q50 & the wholly Nissan QX50/EX/FX/QX70/G37 are readily available.
The next ULEZ change will be for all petrol cars to be Euro5, with all diesels already being Euro6 they can't get anymore stringent, especially when Euro7 won't be introduced on new cars until 2025/26 at the earliest.
Law makers would have to leave it 5-10 years before legislating against euro6.
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