Used car prices peaked?

[Frimley111R]

I get the impression that they have stabilised between high prices and people no longer being prepared to pay any more (obvs some variations). Do you think this is correct or they may still rise. I also assume they will gradually fall back too, over the next couple of years.

[LightningBlue]

Some cars are still going up. I can’t see values dipping anytime soon, the chip issues aren’t fixed and inflation is predicted to get worse, possibly hyperinflation. I can’t see values ever dropping to the levels we remember - our money isn’t worth the same as it was two years ago

[georgeyboy12345]

Frimley111R said:

I get the impression that they have stabilised between high prices and people no longer being prepared to pay any more (obvs some variations). Do you think this is correct or they may still rise. I also assume they will gradually fall back too, over the next couple of years.

Nope, wishful thinking I'm afraid, still going up.

[av185]

Prices up around 30% on much used stuff over the last 12 months alone and prices will remain strong for the next 18 months at least due to the many well discussed issues not least restricted supply of new stock.

Applies to mainstream medium and high end.

As ever the best used cars will always sell at the highest prices.

Unlikely we will ever see a return to the pre covid levels of depreciation on UK cars.

[Mr Tidy]

I can't see values dropping in the foreseeable future. After all we always benefited from much steeper depreciation in the UK than the rest of Europe.

But where new models are on a particularly long lead time I wouldn't be surprised to see nearly-new ones going up a bit.

Then again I usually seem to manage to buy the wrong car at the wrong time!

[griffter]

The cars on my various watch lists are either not selling or being reduced. The only things selling are anomalies.
The cost of living is about to go through the roof, so chip supply or not, disposable income will drop.
Dealers say they’re going up.
I say they’re coming down.

[Deerfoot]

griffter said:

The cars on my various watch lists are either not selling or being reduced.

I've been watching V70 and XC70 prices for a few months, one V70 is now £1400 down on the original price, there are a couple of XC70s that have been on the market since October time.

Perhaps they're just not desirable, perhaps they were overpriced but they haven't shifted...

[Frimley111R]

Deerfoot said:

griffter said:

The cars on my various watch lists are either not selling or being reduced.

I've been watching V70 and XC70 prices for a few months, one V70 is now £1400 down on the original price, there are a couple of XC70s that have been on the market since October time.

Perhaps they're just not desirable, perhaps they were overpriced but they haven't shifted...

I was watching Type-R FN2s plus some Megane R26s and they seem to struggle too. Perhaps its just winter. After all, who wants to look at a car in the freezing cold or rain or dark? I think this the same every year though.

[Frimley111R]

av185 said:

Unlikely we will ever see a return to the pre covid levels of depreciation on UK cars.

I have to disagree here. This is all driven by a lack of new cars. When supply returns the market surely must return to normal. New car supply is the only thing that has changed.

[av185]

Frimley111R said:

av185 said:

Unlikely we will ever see a return to the pre covid levels of depreciation on UK cars.

I have to disagree here. This is all driven by a lack of new cars. When supply returns the market surely must return to normal. New car supply is the only thing that has changed.

Depends on the exact levels of new car supply which will be resticted for some considerable time yet and furthermore manufacturers will be chasing margin over volume with much smaller levels of discounting available which will support much stronger used prices in the future.

[Deerfoot]

griffter said:

The cost of living is about to go through the roof, so chip supply or not, disposable income will drop.

This is absolute key IMHO, many will have to reassess their spending, I can`t see the whim to swap cars being a massive priority for some.

[clarki]

Frimley111R said:

Deerfoot said:

griffter said:

The cars on my various watch lists are either not selling or being reduced.

I've been watching V70 and XC70 prices for a few months, one V70 is now £1400 down on the original price, there are a couple of XC70s that have been on the market since October time.

Perhaps they're just not desirable, perhaps they were overpriced but they haven't shifted...

I was watching Type-R FN2s plus some Megane R26s and they seem to struggle too. Perhaps its just winter. After all, who wants to look at a car in the freezing cold or rain or dark? I think this the same every year though.

I've been watching the fiesta st market.

The mk7s seem to be on the slide. Having driven both the mk7 and mk8 now though really did prefer the mk8 and their prices just aint budging from what I can tell.

[Frimley111R]

Deerfoot said:

griffter said:

The cost of living is about to go through the roof, so chip supply or not, disposable income will drop.

This is absolute key IMHO, many will have to reassess their spending, I can`t see the whim to swap cars being a massive priority for some.

I don't see it. The cost of living isn't going to go 'through the roof'. It is going to get higher, specifically energy costs and food but for many households this will be no more than a slight annoyance.

[Jamesgt]

griffter said:

The cars on my various watch lists are either not selling or being reduced. The only things selling are anomalies.
The cost of living is about to go through the roof, so chip supply or not, disposable income will drop.
Dealers say they’re going up.
I say they’re coming down.

I’m watching m2/m2 comps. They’ve definitely dropped a bit since i started looking last summer. Seasonal or a start of a trend? Who knows!

[raspy]

Frimley111R said:

I have to disagree here. This is all driven by a lack of new cars. When supply returns the market surely must return to normal. New car supply is the only thing that has changed.

That's not entirely accurate. What else has changed? Lots of office workers who started to work from home due to covid have continued to work from home (no commuting mileage, so keep used car for longer) and those who have managed to save so much due to no foreign holidays, going out etc during pandemic have spent some of that cash on used/new cars.

[raspy]

Frimley111R said:

I don't see it. The cost of living isn't going to go 'through the roof'. It is going to get higher, specifically energy costs and food but for many households this will be no more than a slight annoyance.

Agreed, "through the roof" is an exaggeration. It's not like we are living in Turkey with 50% inflation.

[vanman1936]

Yup, dropping.

My WBAC value on my S5 dropped by £2k in last 2 months £17.5 to £15.5k

[CarCrazyDad]

raspy said:

Frimley111R said:

I don't see it. The cost of living isn't going to go 'through the roof'. It is going to get higher, specifically energy costs and food but for many households this will be no more than a slight annoyance.

Agreed, "through the roof" is an exaggeration. It's not like we are living in Turkey with 50% inflation.

Exactly

And for most, who shop at Tesco/Sainsburys, the extra energy cost can be offset by shopping at Aldi or Lidl (which I love !)

[Venisonpie]

vanman1936 said:

Yup, dropping.

My WBAC value on my S5 dropped by £2k in last 2 months £17.5 to £15.5k

Conversely my Alpine has risen 3 times this year, slowly, but still an upward trajectory.

[av185]

Venisonpie said:

vanman1936 said:

Yup, dropping.

My WBAC value on my S5 dropped by £2k in last 2 months £17.5 to £15.5k

Conversely my Alpine has risen 3 times this year, slowly, but still an upward trajectory.

Yep quoting individual cars is broadly meaningless its the market as a whole which is indicative and most stuff across most price brackets is still making very strong prices ££ as expected.