When are electric cars likely to become cheaper?

[anonymous-user]

Before you say how long is a piece of string. Wondering when to end my love affair with diesel. Driven petrol for 10 years and diesel around 20 years. Prefer the relaxed drive with diesel.

Most electric cars look a bit ugly to me. I know some manufacturers have already set dates from when they will stop producing ICE.

More cheaper?
More wide spread?

A quick search online… there are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.

Petrol: 18 million cars in the UK
Diesel: 15 million
Electric: barely 1 million

How much time do I have before I need to come off dinosaur juice?

[Finding Neutral]

Ages. And there’s so much scope for change along the way. Can’t really predict tbh.

I reckon that it’s growing and not shortening based on worldwide events tbh.

Edited by Finding Neutral on Monday 28th March 19:41

[anonymous-user]

Finding Neutral said:

Ages. And there’s so much scope for change along the way. Can’t really predict tbh.

I reckon that it’s growing and not shortening based on worldwide events tbh.

Edited by Finding Neutral on Monday 28th March 19:41

True

[The Cardinal]

This will be a huge market upheaval. I'm sure someone will be along with a model soon enough, but just to give you a guide...

To get to a position where a third of cars in the UK fleet (as at today's 33 million total) was 11 million, it would have taken an annual sales average of 1m electric cars per year from today until 2032.

An analytical modeller would look at the supply of electric cars and factors like the 2030 ICE sale "ban" to give a more accurate picture.

It looks to me as if it would take at least until the end of the 2020s before we have a wide range of 3-5 year old electric cars to choose from in the same way that (pre-pandemic) you might have easily gone into most car supermarkets and chosen from a range of Golfs, 3 Series etc etc. I think that "buying" a car will be markedly more expensive in relative terms by the time we get to this position, meaning that financing older cars (possibly via manufacturers) will be more prevalent.

Depending on how innovation, supply, (dis)incentives and other factors work out - I can see residual values being initially high for all electric cars. I also think this might well be the case for ICE niches like convertibles, 4x4s, campers and sports cars where electric equivalents are either much more expensive or offer lower utility - towing / weight capacity, range, noise & sensation... - in the short term at least. ​

This will also do something to the utility and budget ends of the market, but I haven't thought through exactly what. Instinctively, I think the days of buying a 10-year-old car with many years of economic use for very low prices are over in the UK. But, equally, I can't yet see clearly enough what impact things like lower electric car maintenance needs and loss of ICE-specific repair knowledge might have.

[anonymous-user]

Thanks that makes sense.

[RECr]

The Cardinal said:

...Instinctively, I think the days of buying a 10-year-old car with many years of economic use for very low prices are over in the UK...

Sadly it seems to be the case , but off the top of my head I can't think of any other country where second hand card were/are cheap.

[samoht]

aguywalksintoabar said:

Before you say how long is a piece of string. Wondering when to end my love affair with diesel. Driven petrol for 10 years and diesel around 20 years. Prefer the relaxed drive with diesel.

Most electric cars look a bit ugly to me. I know some manufacturers have already set dates from when they will stop producing ICE.

More cheaper?
More wide spread?

A quick search online… there are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.

Petrol: 18 million cars in the UK
Diesel: 15 million
Electric: barely 1 million

How much time do I have before I need to come off dinosaur juice?

According to https://heycar.co.uk/blog/electric-cars-statistics... , EVs are likely to overtake diesels this year (numbers were pretty close in 2021, and EVs are growing c 25% pa).

Therefore, if you normally buy cars around N years old, then in N years from now, the availability of used EVs will roughly match that of used diesel cars. So that might be a time when it's easy to go electric, depending on how long your journeys typically are and if you can charge at home.

It's v hard to predict prices, however I suspect that the total cost of ownership of a used EV in future will be the same or lower as a used diesel of the same age is now, considering the likely lower maintenance, fuel and tax costs.

Incidentally, if you appreciate the relaxing nature of diesels, I'd recommend you look for a chance to hire an EV for a day; they're even more relaxing.

[ToastMan76]

Id take a stab and say they will never get overly cheaper. The car market is currently shifting dramatically away from the ownership model in the same way it moved from outright purchase to PCP. New car values have shot up so that its all based on monthly rentals, and you see more and more focus on this rental model (Volvo Subscription etc). As electric car batteries have the potential for significant declining performance year after year, theres no point to buying since youd have to fork out nearly as much again if it failed. Manufacturers can develop tech to limit compatibility of batteries (look at Tesla for example) so only they can replace them.

The only part of this square I cant circle is what manufacturers will do at the end of terms, will they put the car into a second hand rental model, will they chop for parts? Only time will tell over the next 10 years.

[LasseV]

According to Daimler boss: Never.

https://www.ft.com/content/1ac7d696-0fee-40a0-baa0...

[anonymous-user]

Thanks all. Great responses.

[Challo]

aguywalksintoabar said:

Before you say how long is a piece of string. Wondering when to end my love affair with diesel. Driven petrol for 10 years and diesel around 20 years. Prefer the relaxed drive with diesel.

Most electric cars look a bit ugly to me. I know some manufacturers have already set dates from when they will stop producing ICE.

More cheaper?
More wide spread?

A quick search online… there are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.

Petrol: 18 million cars in the UK
Diesel: 15 million
Electric: barely 1 million

How much time do I have before I need to come off dinosaur juice?

As someone said it depends when they fall into the price category you normally purchase at. You can pick up fully electric cars from £5k now, but they tend to be early Leafs or similar Mitsubishi versions.

Cheapest plug-in hybrids are £10k for the Outlanders, but you can easily pick up early hybrids from £2k for Honda Insights.

[PushedDover]

Define Cheaper.

They currently have a higher CAPEX,
They currently have a much lower OPEX.

[samoht]

ToastMan76 said:

As electric car batteries have the potential for significant declining performance year after year, theres no point to buying since youd have to fork out nearly as much again if it failed.

The Leaf battery has no cooling system, it's just passively cooled. As such it tends to degrade with use; there's a dash display showing how much capacity remains. So anyone buying an older Leaf is getting a noticeably less useful car than when it was new (which was itself lower range than most EVs today).

Other EVs have either blown-air or liquid cooling to keep the battery within its optimal temperature range. Older Tesla Model S seem to keep most of their fairly good initial range (80-90%) even at a decade / 100k miles, so probably still enough for most.

[Janesy B]

PushedDover said:

Define Cheaper.

They currently have a higher CAPEX,
They currently have a much lower OPEX.

This is the most PH response ever.

[resolve10]

The cynical view is they will come down in price as soon as they start to incur higher tax. At the moment it's easy to justiffy the higher sticker price of EV's (if you can afford one) as you can offset the purchase price against the low running costs, but as soon as that swing of ICE/EV on the road starts to tip further towards EV, the tax will inevitably go up. The roads won't pay for their own upkeep so it has to come from somewhere.

That will inevitable force down the cost of EV's, not to mention a lot of manufacturers won't even have ICE options in their range by this point so they will need to be priced competetively to maintain any kind of market share.

[anonymous-user]

samoht said:

ToastMan76 said:

As electric car batteries have the potential for significant declining performance year after year, theres no point to buying since youd have to fork out nearly as much again if it failed.

The Leaf battery has no cooling system, it's just passively cooled. As such it tends to degrade with use; there's a dash display showing how much capacity remains. So anyone buying an older Leaf is getting a noticeably less useful car than when it was new (which was itself lower range than most EVs today).

Other EVs have either blown-air or liquid cooling to keep the battery within its optimal temperature range. Older Tesla Model S seem to keep most of their fairly good initial range (80-90%) even at a decade / 100k miles, so probably still enough for most.

I thought about a Leaf. Went to view it and the sales agent said it’s best to charge to up to 80-85% for longevity of the battery. The usable range was a miserly 130 miles. That could be less without a heat pump. A three pin plug charge was more than 18 hours. It’s things like that… same with the BMW i3. The range is okay but the battery technology is old. I don’t like Tesla. I drove one and I’m not used to driving fast so it made me feel sick. VW ID4 GTX was okay but a bit boring. I’m holding out for when things improve. I’m happy to go electric and it would work for me as I have a driveway and garage both with power.

[SWoll]

Janesy B said:

PushedDover said:

Define Cheaper.

They currently have a higher CAPEX,
They currently have a much lower OPEX.

This is the most PH response ever.

But true. A £50k ICE that depreciates by £25k in 3 years and costs £5k in petrol is far more expensive than a £70k EV that depreciates £15k and costs £2k in electricity over the same term?

Purchase price is a pointless measure, it's all about TCO.

[captain.scarlet]

aguywalksintoabar said:

Before you say how long is a piece of string. Wondering when to end my love affair with diesel. Driven petrol for 10 years and diesel around 20 years. Prefer the relaxed drive with diesel.

Most electric cars look a bit ugly to me. I know some manufacturers have already set dates from when they will stop producing ICE.

More cheaper?
More wide spread?

A quick search online… there are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.

Petrol: 18 million cars in the UK
Diesel: 15 million
Electric: barely 1 million

How much time do I have before I need to come off dinosaur juice?

We've seen the the evolution of ICE and hybrids over the years, and in the last couple of decades efficiency has become a major factor that's been given a lot of attention and progressed rapidly.

I think that that will continue to be a major focus for EVs: although it's 8 years before the ICE ban is supposed to become official in the UK and other places on Earth working to similar or identical timeframes, it's not great deal of time for EV manufacturers to have vehicles that are truly appealing to a sudden greater market that is new to EVs and likely to tread with caution.

However, IMO even then a lot will continue to change and improve in terms of EV technology, standards, efficiency and choice between now 2030.

I would think that hybrids will increase in value or become more in demand towards the end of this decade for those clinging on to fossil fuels or not able to get an EV for whatever reason (such as lack of charging facilities, costs etc).

The likely sudden increased demand for EVs will also make them lucrative in the used car market which is going to be saturated with used ICE and EV cars.

I'd say it'll be another 15 years at least before EVs in the used car segment will begin to depreciate significantly due to older technologies dating back to the early days of mass-produced EVs, reduced battery range and life, higher running costs and maintenance, slower charging times and poorer performance/efficiency.

My other thought is that petrol stations will likely be slowly converted into rapid charging stations with reduced or possibly one pump for petrol and diesel to one side for ICE cars. Even that will probably dwindle in time.

There's still time to enjoy an ICE car I'd say and I'm personally in no rush to switch over, but I'd be cautious about what's on offer now in the EV world (new and used) given there's still some time to go between now and 2030 and it's a bridge I'll cross when I get to it.

[anonymous-user]

captain.scarlet said:

aguywalksintoabar said:

Before you say how long is a piece of string. Wondering when to end my love affair with diesel. Driven petrol for 10 years and diesel around 20 years. Prefer the relaxed drive with diesel.

Most electric cars look a bit ugly to me. I know some manufacturers have already set dates from when they will stop producing ICE.

More cheaper?
More wide spread?

A quick search online… there are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.

Petrol: 18 million cars in the UK
Diesel: 15 million
Electric: barely 1 million

How much time do I have before I need to come off dinosaur juice?

We've seen the the evolution of ICE and hybrids over the years, and in the last couple of decades efficiency has become a major factor that's been given a lot of attention and progressed rapidly.

I think that that will continue to be a major focus for EVs: although it's 8 years before the ICE ban is supposed to become official in the UK and other places on Earth working to similar or identical timeframes, it's not great deal of time for EV manufacturers to have vehicles that are truly appealing to a sudden greater market that is new to EVs and likely to tread with caution.

However, IMO even then a lot will continue to change and improve in terms of EV technology, standards, efficiency and choice between now 2030.

I would think that hybrids will increase in value or become more in demand towards the end of this decade for those clinging on to fossil fuels or not able to get an EV for whatever reason (such as lack of charging facilities, costs etc).

The likely sudden increased demand for EVs will also make them lucrative in the used car market which is going to be saturated with used ICE and EV cars.

I'd say it'll be another 15 years at least before EVs in the used car segment will begin to depreciate significantly due to older technologies dating back to the early days of mass-produced EVs, reduced battery range and life, higher running costs and maintenance, slower charging times and poorer performance/efficiency.

My other thought is that petrol stations will likely be slowly converted into rapid charging stations with reduced or possibly one pump for petrol and diesel to one side for ICE cars. Even that will probably dwindle in time.

There's still time to enjoy an ICE car I'd say and I'm personally in no rush to switch over, but I'd be cautious about what's on offer now in the EV world (new and used) given there's still some time to go between now and 2030 and it's a bridge I'll cross when I get to it.

O CAPTAIN! my Captain! our fearful trip is done…
The ICE is no more and EV is now fun…
Great response. Thank you. There is a bit of time and I think you’re right but won’t be surprised if battery replacement options are in place… let’s hope so… so that there doesn’t end up being an EV scrap scheme. You never know. Everyone on my street now has an EV. Most of them are Model 3’s and mine is the only bag of nails in the morning… I’m giving myself a cut-off. I don’t want to be lumbered with an ICE that is worthless. Won’t panic right now.

[captain.scarlet]

aguywalksintoabar said:

captain.scarlet said:

aguywalksintoabar said:

Before you say how long is a piece of string. Wondering when to end my love affair with diesel. Driven petrol for 10 years and diesel around 20 years. Prefer the relaxed drive with diesel.

Most electric cars look a bit ugly to me. I know some manufacturers have already set dates from when they will stop producing ICE.

More cheaper?
More wide spread?

A quick search online… there are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.

Petrol: 18 million cars in the UK
Diesel: 15 million
Electric: barely 1 million

How much time do I have before I need to come off dinosaur juice?

We've seen the the evolution of ICE and hybrids over the years, and in the last couple of decades efficiency has become a major factor that's been given a lot of attention and progressed rapidly.

I think that that will continue to be a major focus for EVs: although it's 8 years before the ICE ban is supposed to become official in the UK and other places on Earth working to similar or identical timeframes, it's not great deal of time for EV manufacturers to have vehicles that are truly appealing to a sudden greater market that is new to EVs and likely to tread with caution.

However, IMO even then a lot will continue to change and improve in terms of EV technology, standards, efficiency and choice between now 2030.

I would think that hybrids will increase in value or become more in demand towards the end of this decade for those clinging on to fossil fuels or not able to get an EV for whatever reason (such as lack of charging facilities, costs etc).

The likely sudden increased demand for EVs will also make them lucrative in the used car market which is going to be saturated with used ICE and EV cars.

I'd say it'll be another 15 years at least before EVs in the used car segment will begin to depreciate significantly due to older technologies dating back to the early days of mass-produced EVs, reduced battery range and life, higher running costs and maintenance, slower charging times and poorer performance/efficiency.

My other thought is that petrol stations will likely be slowly converted into rapid charging stations with reduced or possibly one pump for petrol and diesel to one side for ICE cars. Even that will probably dwindle in time.

There's still time to enjoy an ICE car I'd say and I'm personally in no rush to switch over, but I'd be cautious about what's on offer now in the EV world (new and used) given there's still some time to go between now and 2030 and it's a bridge I'll cross when I get to it.

O CAPTAIN! my Captain! our fearful trip is done…
The ICE is no more and EV is now fun…
Great response. Thank you. There is a bit of time and I think you’re right but won’t be surprised if battery replacement options are in place… let’s hope so… so that there doesn’t end up being an EV scrap scheme. You never know. Everyone on my street now has an EV. Most of them are Model 3’s and mine is the only bag of nails in the morning… I’m giving myself a cut-off. I don’t want to be lumbered with an ICE that is worthless. Won’t panic right now.

Each to their own I suppose.

I think those who genuinely love and enjoy ICEs won't be put off by any (if any) sudden rapid depreciation, which again I don't think will occur for some time as there's still going to be this decade's run of ICE cars in the used car market along with everything else before it.

A part of me thinks the ICE ban won't go ahead given the state of the infrastructure but I could just be living in denial.