Brasilian GP Betting Opportunities/not for the non-believers

[MGJohn]

Following Qualifying, the Hamilton v. Button situation has seen a big change.

This was the situation at 18:21 yesterday:~

PLACE YOUR BETS :~

Button v. Hamilton as seen by William Hill on-line :~

Race Specials

11/4 Hamilton To Win

5/1 Button To Win


13/8 Either Hamilton Or Button To Win

and if young Vettel spoils the show yet again :~

4/9..... Neither Hamilton Nor Button To Win

Now just checked WilliamHILL who are currently offering these revised odds :~

======================================

6/1 Hamilton To Win ( previously 11/4 )

11/2 Button To Win ( previously 5/1 )


9/4 Either Hamilton Or Button To Win ( previously 13/8 )


1/3 Neither Hamilton Nor Button to win.

======================================

Overall race pace I feel will be much closer for the first four on the grid. If the anticipated precipitation really comes to pass, whoooopppeeee ~ Bring it on Rain Gods...

Enter the Rainmeisters which always provides far higher added interest for this observer ~ except when I'm at a very rainy Silverstone British GP when I definitely do not want to bring it on. That weather exposed old converted WWII Bomber Aerodrome known as Silverstone is not a nice place to be when the winds and rains come.

There's more like Mclaren Driver race Match odds :~

27 Nov 16:00 UK

10/11 Lewis Hamilton v Jenson Button 4/5 ( One must finish in front of the other no matter what happens )

Nothing in it. The bookies have them pretty even which before the off, is spot on in my opinion.

There are driver match bets available for all the team drivers if you care to search.

Vettel is around 8-13 ( £65 wins you £40 ... ... ); Webber 9-2 ( £20 wins you £90 ) Button 11-2; Hamilton 6-1; Alonso 14-1; 80-1 Massa; 80-1 Rosberg; 150-1 Schumacher; 750-1 Sutil and all the way up to 7500-1 other drivers.

There are odds available for just about anything from safety car deployment, first retirement, fastest lap, number of finishers, podium, top six finish, points finish ... you name it.

Be lucky.

I won a nice few quid on "The Beautiful Game" this afternoon and will play some of that up come tomorrow just before the start of the race. By that time we will have a better idea of what the chances are for a wet race which could really upset the whole sheebang. Mind you, checking the Premiership Scores midway through the seond half with so many 1-1 draws I had almost written my main bets off.

[Mr_Thyroid]

When it rains as predicted I always like to go for an outsider for the podium

Schumacher @~20:1
or Sutil @~30:1

both seem like reasonable bets to me

or how about Rubens @~200:1 for a podium; what a way to finish the season.

[hairykrishna]

William Hill still have a Schumacher podium at 25-1. If it rains, and it looks like it probably will, that's good value I think. I'm pretty sure Vettel's going to romp home regardless but at odds that short it's not worth a bet IMO.

[MGJohn]

One word of warning, EACH WAY betting after Qualifying is ONLY on places 1 and 2; not 1-2-3 as was once the case regularly in the past. Bear that in mind when considering a win and place bet.

On the other hand, some bookies offer "enhanced" WIN ONLY odds ( not each way ) which are higher than the win part in an each way bet. So, you can assess the odds on that and look around for a good value podium only bet which sometimes can give better odds for the two seperate bets which are effectively and EACH WAY bet but not in name.

LATEST:~

William Hill :~

Podium for Schumacher 33-1.

If there's a deluge that 33-1 could be very good value even though he did not take Q3 seriously and so starts 10th. But, there could be a method in that apparent ... Madness.
.

[Beyond Rational]

The safety car is the only car I'm betting on.

I don't know if Button will push Seb/Webber if beating them seems unlikely, leaving him to think more about maintaining second in the drivers championship, over Alonso.

Maybe on a team order basis, a Webber win is more likely than the stats suggest. If Vettel leads Webber and they have a margin to the next runner, I expect a photo finish to end the season.

[MGJohn]

Beyond Rational said:

The safety car is the only car I'm betting on.

I don't know if Button will push Seb/Webber if beating them seems unlikely, leaving him to think more about maintaining second in the drivers championship, over Alonso.

Maybe on a team order basis, a Webber win is more likely than the stats suggest. If Vettel leads Webber and they have a margin to the next runner, I expect a photo finish to end the season.

Yes, good point about Button and RB's possible team strategies. Button has to decide, and he will be wise to leave the decision until well into the race, to go all out for the win or drive to consolidate his 2nd place in the Championship. I believe if the Mclaren's race pace is up to it and begins to show during the final laps, both a race win and 2nd in the Championship is possible. However, one slip and BOTH could be lost. Tough call even for the cool thinking Button. I suspect he will play it 'by ear' and if the opportunity does appear and safely, he'll go for both. Of all the driver's out there, I think he alone is the one most unlikely to do the wrong things. However, temptation and a slight error of judgement could undo all that in a fraction of a second. Add to the mix both Hamilton, Alonso et al wanting to get in front and you have a recipe for a very interesting race. then there's the possibility of rain.

It's all these fascinating possibilities which can make even so called boring races very interesting for me. Yes, interesting even if Vettel does his usual runner ...
.

[MGJohn]

What's the weather like there in Interlagos ? ... Any precipitation imminent or already arrived ?

Enhanced WIN only odds on the old man of the tracks ( Herr MSC ) 250-1 ..

Podium for him :~ 25-1 ~ Was 33-1 now long gone.

TEAM MATE DRIVER RACE "MATCH" BET ODDS AVAILABLE :~

4-11 SV v. MW 2-1

8-11 JB v. LH EVENS ( 1-1 )

1-5 FA v. FM 100-30

4-11 NR v. MSC 2-1

4-11 AS v. PDR 2-1

6-5 VP v. BS 8-13

4-11 RB v. PM 2-1

8-11 JA v. SB EVENS ( 1-1 )

8-11 KK v. SP EVENS ( 1-1 )

8-15 HK v. JT 11-8

So who will finish in front of his team mate? Do you fancy the 'racer' to turn the tables? Money where your mouth is time.

Be lucky.

[jjr1]

Safety car 1.5-1.54 on Betfair. Got to be a back if we see these clouds darken

Vettel similarly has got to be laid at 1.81 if rain

[Beyond Rational]

So MGJohn, tell us before we find out the race results, where you're putting your money.

[MGJohn]

Beyond Rational said:

So MGJohn, tell us before we find out the race results, where you're putting your money.

As always, on BOTH McLaren Drivers are my main bets. Button being the best result for me but if Hamilton does the trick, will cover the other and show a little profit.

Sadly the days of 16-1 and 20-1 about Button now long gone but, 11-2 is not bad value. All based on my estimate of better Race Pace with the possibility of the two Red Bulls spoiling their chances at some stage. best laid plans and allo that. Rain now seems unlikely.

Lots of smaller side bets ranging for a Podium for either Mercedes and NO Safety car deployment. Had a little bet on PM to finish in front of FA too ~ hope there's no "faster than you" directives.

If all my bets draw a blank today I'll still finish in front on the season thanks to those 16-1 and 20-1 bets earlier on Button plus a few other good ones.

Going to look at the number of finishers betting. A dry race with so many reliable cars could see a lot of finishers ... must fly and have a final check before the off. Bookies sometimes close their books on the warm up lap ~ Roll On.

Pictures breaking up ... Oh no...
.

[MGJohn]

Well all my bets bar one were losers today. Not much harm done because I had no strong fancies with the two RBs up front on the grid so my stakes were not big. My one winning bet ~ NO Safety car which I placed as soon as I saw those blue near cloudless skies. I got 7-4 and a few minutes before the off, they had shortened the odds to 5-4.

However, my best return winning bet today was one I placed back in September when Button was 8-1 to finish second in the Driver's Championship. For a while there today when it looked like the Red Bulls would swap places and Button slowing too when Alonso passed him so easily I suspected Button car trouble but, I was wrong. He was struggling a bit with tyres early on but he lifted allowing the Ferrari to pass when seeing stuff on the track. Again demonstrated admirable patience and got past the Red car on merit later on.

So, not a bad season for me thanks to JB... ASctually quite good since 2009 and so thanks for some good entertainment from all who participated this season both in front of the cameras and behind. I am not looking forward to next season in the same way as previously. I wonder why.

Probably visit and attend more car related stuff on more Sundays next year ~ not so bad after all ..
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