997 GT3 residuals
Discussion
Having jumped through lots of hoops, sold my kids for the deposit, and passed Porsche's suitability assessment(having owned more than 6 in the past - t
ts), I've ordered a GT3. Considering availablilty I was wondering whether 997 GT3 residuals might actually be quite strong in the future.
I expect to lose about 1k per month on 10,000 miles a year, and that's about what's happened to my C2S.
Any views, particularly from traders?
>> Edited by simonharrod911 on Friday 21st April 15:27
ts), I've ordered a GT3. Considering availablilty I was wondering whether 997 GT3 residuals might actually be quite strong in the future. I expect to lose about 1k per month on 10,000 miles a year, and that's about what's happened to my C2S.
Any views, particularly from traders?
>> Edited by simonharrod911 on Friday 21st April 15:27
Future values are notoriously difficult to predict, but several factors will influence them.
* Firstly, the 'economy'. If the economy (stock market, house prices, interest rates, job security, etc) remains favourable, then demand will remain strong. If it falters and confidence weakens, then the values of all prestige cars will suffer.
* Secondly, how good is the 997GT3? If it really is as good as some commentators are suggesting, and really is a viable road and/or track car, then it will be highly sought after and demand will exceed supply, protecting residuals.
* Thirdly, its appeal. If it is a great car to own and use (ie the novelty doesn't wear off), then many owners will keep them long term, reducing the number of used examples for sale, again protecting residuals.
* Fourthly, it could be THE 'sexy' 911 to own. The mainstream 997s are becoming too common and the Turbo may be seen as the 'older man's' choice. The GT3, with its greater exclusivity and 'race track' marketing, could make it the most desirable 911 for a long time. It could be the 'Rolex Daytona' of sports cars.
* Fifthly, a lot depends on supply. If Porsche build, as suggested, less than 200 cars a year for the UK market (including RSs) then this should make it a hot commodity. But, if they get greedy and build nearer 500 cars p.a., then used prices will start to suffer.
Personally, I think the GT3 will be terrific and, in the short term, values will hold up well with early cars commanding a premium. If so, then this could also strengthen interest in, and values for, good used 996 GT3s
But, only time will tell and, of course, no one really knows
.
>> Edited by Geneve on Friday 21st April 18:07
* Firstly, the 'economy'. If the economy (stock market, house prices, interest rates, job security, etc) remains favourable, then demand will remain strong. If it falters and confidence weakens, then the values of all prestige cars will suffer.
* Secondly, how good is the 997GT3? If it really is as good as some commentators are suggesting, and really is a viable road and/or track car, then it will be highly sought after and demand will exceed supply, protecting residuals.
* Thirdly, its appeal. If it is a great car to own and use (ie the novelty doesn't wear off), then many owners will keep them long term, reducing the number of used examples for sale, again protecting residuals.
* Fourthly, it could be THE 'sexy' 911 to own. The mainstream 997s are becoming too common and the Turbo may be seen as the 'older man's' choice. The GT3, with its greater exclusivity and 'race track' marketing, could make it the most desirable 911 for a long time. It could be the 'Rolex Daytona' of sports cars.
* Fifthly, a lot depends on supply. If Porsche build, as suggested, less than 200 cars a year for the UK market (including RSs) then this should make it a hot commodity. But, if they get greedy and build nearer 500 cars p.a., then used prices will start to suffer.
Personally, I think the GT3 will be terrific and, in the short term, values will hold up well with early cars commanding a premium. If so, then this could also strengthen interest in, and values for, good used 996 GT3s
But, only time will tell and, of course, no one really knows
. >> Edited by Geneve on Friday 21st April 18:07
Geneve said:
Future values are notoriously difficult to predict, but several factors will influence them.
* Firstly, the 'economy'. If the economy (stock market, house prices, interest rates, job security, etc) remains favourable, then demand will remain strong. If it falters and confidence weakens, then the values of all prestige cars will suffer.
* Secondly, how good is the 997GT3? If it really is as good as some commentators are suggesting, and really is a viable road and/or track car, then it will be highly sought after and demand will exceed supply, protecting residuals.
* Thirdly, its appeal. If it is a great car to own and use (ie the novelty doesn't wear off), then many owners will keep them long term, reducing the number of used examples for sale, again protecting residuals.
* Fourthly, it could be THE 'sexy' 911 to own. The mainstream 997s are becoming too common and the Turbo may be seen as the 'older man's' choice. The GT3, with its greater exclusivity and 'race track' marketing, could make it the most desirable 911 for a long time. It could be the 'Rolex Daytona' of sports cars.
* Fifthly, a lot depends on supply. If Porsche build, as suggested, less than 200 cars a year for the UK market (including RSs) then this should make it a hot commodity. But, if they get greedy and build nearer 500 cars p.a., then used prices will start to suffer.
Personally, I think the GT3 will be terrific and, in the short term, values will hold up well with early cars commanding a premium. If so, then this could also strengthen interest in, and values for, good used 996 GT3s
But, only time will tell and, of course, no one really knows
Consider that one nail, hit square and centre.
I think it depends if they will be a limited run of say 100 or part of the normal range of the 997.
The initial one was best as it was a one off limited production run - which was why 2 year old cars were worth 95% of new price!! The GT3 has traditionally bettered the standard 911 as they have been limited run.
If its not limited then I think they will depreciate in line with the rest of the range, possibly a bit more due to higher price and niche appeal with 2 seats.
Bennno
>> Edited by bennno on Friday 21st April 18:31
The initial one was best as it was a one off limited production run - which was why 2 year old cars were worth 95% of new price!! The GT3 has traditionally bettered the standard 911 as they have been limited run.
If its not limited then I think they will depreciate in line with the rest of the range, possibly a bit more due to higher price and niche appeal with 2 seats.
Bennno
>> Edited by bennno on Friday 21st April 18:31
GT Chipper said:
I would hope to see between £55000 and £60000 for a 3 year old GT3 with around 30000 on the clock which costs around £87000 new . Well i hope so
To frame that against what the 996s have done, my 04 RS was c. 92k new including options I believe. Could hopefully fetch 65k now private sale, so dealer would bid mid 50s? Of course the RS was oversupplied, and the 996 GT3s are now suffering further due to the model change. Thats pretty violent depreciation however you look at it for a 2 year old car - on the plus side it meant I could afford one
Really there are so many factors, I'm not sure it's even worthwhile speculating?
A Porsche salesman told me that Porsche have accepted that they produced a few too may 996 GT3's.
There were 05 registered GT3's being registered from 04 build batches, and I believe the last of these was sold with no mileage only around six months ago ? Itwas a yellow one advertsied around here.
New but pre-registered prices with full spec dipped to around £67k --- a £15k discount to new --- and in a good private sale and with 8 or 9k on the clock these now seem to be bringing around £10k less ?
At these prices against a similar 997 they are in my view a bargain --- £30k off the similarly specced 997 and 95%++ + of the car ? Not NEW obviously.
So I agree, if Porsche do protect the manufactured volumes of the 997GT3 then it will help both 997 and 996 GT3 owners, but will they ?
I have no doubts it will be a very nice car.
996GT3RS was going to be 104 --- the last I heard with imports, there may be almost 200 of them ? I await correction !
The dealers don't care, they get more servicing and more prospective customers to sell new 997 GT3's to ?
We are all getting older and maybe that little bit "softer" ... so may one day be 997 customers who will not want to go for the Carbon Bucket Seats at £3k !! Which could make Porsche's call on the differences between the 996 and 997 GT3 spot-on ?
There were 05 registered GT3's being registered from 04 build batches, and I believe the last of these was sold with no mileage only around six months ago ? Itwas a yellow one advertsied around here.
New but pre-registered prices with full spec dipped to around £67k --- a £15k discount to new --- and in a good private sale and with 8 or 9k on the clock these now seem to be bringing around £10k less ?
At these prices against a similar 997 they are in my view a bargain --- £30k off the similarly specced 997 and 95%++ + of the car ? Not NEW obviously.
So I agree, if Porsche do protect the manufactured volumes of the 997GT3 then it will help both 997 and 996 GT3 owners, but will they ?
I have no doubts it will be a very nice car.
996GT3RS was going to be 104 --- the last I heard with imports, there may be almost 200 of them ? I await correction !
The dealers don't care, they get more servicing and more prospective customers to sell new 997 GT3's to ?
We are all getting older and maybe that little bit "softer" ... so may one day be 997 customers who will not want to go for the Carbon Bucket Seats at £3k !! Which could make Porsche's call on the differences between the 996 and 997 GT3 spot-on ?
murcielago_boy said:
There are around 100 GT3RS. This is too many.
RE 997 GT3 - The single most important factor is quantity produced - if they build 40-50 we're good. 200 is way too many.
Partly correct.
The influencing factor is the number of cars produced relative to the size of the specific market.
The potential market for the 997 GT3 is likely to be quite a bit bigger than the market for the 996 GT3RS, so it can probably support the higher volumes.
>> Edited by Geneve on Saturday 22 April 17:56
I think we need tobe realistic here.
Porsche build cars to make money, not to save usmoney on residuals.
They will build as many as the market demands, and that has probably all ready been determined by all the people up and down the country putting down deposits.
I would also guess that they will gauge the need to make more when they actually start to deliver.
i.e have they got more deposits?
How many official OPC dealers are there in the U.K? About 30?
If they all have deposits for about 5-10 GT3's you can see that it will be at least 200.
The 997 GT3 is also being offered as a better proposition for the road, so you can bet good money that Porsche are hedging their bets and will sell higher numbers as a result.
Of greater interest would be the 997GT3 RS, but again Porsche will probably make what they need to satisfy demand.
Its the reality of a business that appears to be dominated by profit at the moment.
Porsche build cars to make money, not to save usmoney on residuals.
They will build as many as the market demands, and that has probably all ready been determined by all the people up and down the country putting down deposits.
I would also guess that they will gauge the need to make more when they actually start to deliver.
i.e have they got more deposits?
How many official OPC dealers are there in the U.K? About 30?
If they all have deposits for about 5-10 GT3's you can see that it will be at least 200.
The 997 GT3 is also being offered as a better proposition for the road, so you can bet good money that Porsche are hedging their bets and will sell higher numbers as a result.
Of greater interest would be the 997GT3 RS, but again Porsche will probably make what they need to satisfy demand.
Its the reality of a business that appears to be dominated by profit at the moment.
jpf40 said:
I think we need tobe realistic here.
Porsche build cars to make money, not to save usmoney on residuals.
They will build as many as the market demands, and that has probably all ready been determined by all the people up and down the country putting down deposits.
I would also guess that they will gauge the need to make more when they actually start to deliver.
i.e have they got more deposits?
How many official OPC dealers are there in the U.K? About 30?
If they all have deposits for about 5-10 GT3's you can see that it will be at least 200.
The 997 GT3 is also being offered as a better proposition for the road, so you can bet good money that Porsche are hedging their bets and will sell higher numbers as a result.
Of greater interest would be the 997GT3 RS, but again Porsche will probably make what they need to satisfy demand.
Its the reality of a business that appears to be dominated by profit at the moment.
This is correct.
There is one other related factor though - quite a lot of people (I believe) misjudged the 996 GT3 and bought it for the "badge" and the look. They drove it, thought, "bloody hell, this is a bit much" and then jumped out of it and back in Tiptronic Cabriolets (esp the Mk2 as the mk1 was built in much smaller numbers). These misjudgments meant wayyy more cars were delivered to the UK than the ACTUAL market size. Regardless of where the 997 GT3 is pitched (as a more useable GT3), expect the same to happen - 50 odd people will jump out as soon as the car appears to NOT be the coolest thing in the street.
IMO to make the GT3 residually strong they ought to build no more 100 cars (and that is accomodating the "potential" increased customer base argument). To make it a classic that figure of 100 should include RS variants.
The point which you so eloquently put is that Porsche make cars to make money - they don't give a F**K if it's a classic!!!
This will come back to bite them later though....If residuals continue to collapse and we see 997 and 996s EVERYWHERE then the exclusivity and prestige is gone - it'll be another Mercedes at which point fewer people will want one, sales will fall and they'll start to suffer.... I'll probably be back driving a Ferrari.
>> Edited by murcielago_boy on Sunday 23 April 11:01
>> Edited by murcielago_boy on Sunday 23 April 11:03
ChrisW. said:
I would agree, Porsche must be looking at 200 as a price holding minimum, 300 would be toppy and 400 far too many -- in my view.
I think they should build just enough to satisfy demand, but be honest about approx build quantities when people place orders. These are not investments.
Why should so few people be able to enjoy a great car?
Well, BMW built and eventually sold 420 odd M3CSL's.
By the time they had finished, everybody had taken a bath on it, including BMW. New cars were being sold at list less 20% --- and the poor enthusiast blighters who had paid full whack and kept their cars, were royally shafted.
Why 420 ish ? Because they had signed up orders for them .....
By the time they had finished, everybody had taken a bath on it, including BMW. New cars were being sold at list less 20% --- and the poor enthusiast blighters who had paid full whack and kept their cars, were royally shafted.
Why 420 ish ? Because they had signed up orders for them .....
zanzibar said:
[quote=murcielago_boy]There are around 100 GT3RS. This is too many.
I have heard the figure is just over 200 GT3RS's in the UK including imports,,,,
I think the correct number was a little over 100. There won't be many rhd imports. The '200' figure has been mis-quoted before.
Great car, but fundamentally for track use.
zanzibar said:
[quote=murcielago_boy]There are around 100 GT3RS. This is too many.
I have heard the figure is just over 200 GT3RS's in the UK including imports,,,,
Whilst I'm sure there are some imports, I find the idea of there being 90+ highly improbable. Approx 105 is the official number.
I personally do not believe that Porsche will limit in any way the amount of 997GT3's they make for the UK or anywhere else.There has been no declaration of any limit to production (probably just as well given the nonsense that was being spouted about how limited 996GT3RS production was meant to be) and as such the supply will be limited only by demand.Porsche will make as many as they can sell.I can't see that number being less than at least two hundred over the 997GT3's production cycle.I'm sure it will be a great car which lots of people will want to own and I see no reason why Porsche won't oblige by satisfying that demand.It may be bad for residuals but I think it's fair to say in this day and age that very limited production runs from major manufacturers like Porsche are pretty much a thing of the past now.
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