F430 10 years from now

[GG33]

I have owned many many cars over the years, most of which are now far more valuable now, than they ever where when I owned them (Old british cars, Sunbeam Tigers, MGC (Roadster & GT), Tiumph TR's & GT's several older 911 together with a 964 and beautiful 993) The common theme is "I wish I still owned them now". But the truth is - most (not all) were just not that great to own, so I moved them on to try something else.
I'm now in the lucky poition to own one of the nicest F430 Spiders out there, and have even seen a small increase in value since I have owned it. Now although those that claim to be in the know, state that far too many were made, so it will never be a valuable model. Okay compared to say an F40, thats true. But who would have thought a Ford Escort RS2000 would be worth £30K today (almost six times its original purchase price) - and they made thousands of those.

Obviously the old stuff was purchased back in the early 80's for less than £2K - sometimes a matter of hundreds, and had I still owned them, they would have needed full rebuilds to realise true value.

So I am trying to speculate as to what my 430 spider might be worth if I keep it in the condition it is now in, for a further 10 or 20 years? - Pure speculation - I know, but it's a slow day here :-)

Discuss

[WDISMYL]

Simple short answer is - nobody knows.

If history is a guide then the classic car market is fraught with cycles of highs and lows - no different to most financial markets.

There is also the concept of relative return. It's true the F40 rebounded from low prints of below £150k to £750k or higher but the NASDAQ in the same period has rallied from 1000 to over 5000. That's a liquid, transparent market that doesn't have maintenance costs and you can get out of your position at a click of a button.

There are structural risks heading into the future. If Tesla and co have their way, in a relatively short period of time we are all going to be driven by computers. Eventually maybe all other types of vehicles will be banned from the road? How collectable will the car be then? Maybe more - maybe less?

Will the generation below us be as interested in the cars of today in 20 years time? Certain classic antique furniture that sold for big money and appreciated relentlessly for decades collapsed and has never returned to previous levels despite its rarity because it's gone out of fashion.

There will always be the classic - F1 McLaren, and it's true that a rising tide floats all boats, but I personally don't believe production Ferraris, when you include maintenance cost and carry will in long run will outperform more conventional investments. Just my opinion.

[Durzel]

WDISMYL said:

Simple short answer is - nobody knows.

This.

It always puzzles me why people ask this question, because they're asking for a certain answer to something which is by definition uncertain. Furthermore, hypothetically speaking, if anyone actually knew that the value of an investment was certain to rise or fall by a certain amount on a certain date it would be against their best interests to divulge this information publicly.

It is safe to say that while there is a great deal of uncertainty in the world, combined with historically low interest rates, then limited numbers supercars - like gold - are likely to remain a decent place to store your money.

[GG33]

The point is not related to any potential investment - thats not what it is, or why I bought it..Im just wondering if maybe for one time in my life, If I went against my normal modus operandii and kept hold hold of for anotherr 10 or 15 years...am I likely to get a present surprise?

[priley]

The pace with which technology currently becomes an accepted part of our lives (think smart phones which took less than ten years) makes driverless electric cars a realistic possibility within a similar timeframe. I’m concerned for a time where Rush’s ‘Red Barchetta’ * becomes a reality (some of you may find just listening to Rush a bigger concern) and we’ll be kicking ourselves for being worried about mileages and values when all we can do is look at them gathering dust in our garages and museums in our old age.
So I just bought an AMG C55 to enjoy some everyday V8 goodness while I can.

• a future where an old classic sportscar has to be driven illegally as they’re forbidden

[Yipper]

In the past 10 years, an F430 has lost around -3% per year on average.

Even in the almost unprecedented boom of the past 5-7 years, since 2010, the F430 has only gained about +5% per year on average.

[Slickhillsy]

Stupid post really. Better to ask 'where will I be in 10 years' answer could be dead broke or just plain dead.

Drive it. Enjoy it. Keep it or get bored change it.

Common sense says it will never be worthless...

[RamboLambo]

All Ferrari's are currently enjoying inflated values, a bubble that will burst.

Here is some radical thinking - Cash in on this high and buy yourself 4 x RS2000's IF you can find them.
I wager they will be worth a lot more than a F430 in 10 years time

[MDL111]

If people continue to think of these cars as investments and keep them in mint condition, the number of cars will decrease the same way as the numbers of many of those old cars did - as a result I think supply might remain a lot higher than for some of the ones that are now worth a lot (relatively speaking) - as a result not sure how many will see significant appreciation

Also in a market like today where there is an awful lot of discussion about future values and everybody seems to "invest" in cars, I am not sure if it might well be the time to bail out (see tech stocks, Spanish holiday properties etc in the recent past)

No clue after all, but I buy cars to (in my plans which never work out) hold forever, so mentally write them off once once bought

[subirg]

All assets have risen in value, not just cars. The reason - lots of QE and historically low interest rates. Those assets have made their step up in value and whilst they may increase over time they are not going to inflate at the pace seen over the last few years. If inflation comes back, all asset classes will be hit. Will that happen? Who knows.

So - re 430, it is a unlimited production V8. It will also be desirable in the timeframe you are talking about. Will you make millions? No. Willl you lose your shirt? No. Could you invest your cash for a better investment return? Yes, absolutely. Will you be able to generate better life memories through those investments vs the 430? Only you can say.