Where is the smart money going?
Discussion
I m alarmed by the lack of stock generally in the market and how fast this has happened. I don t have industry knowledge but I try to keep up - on the few I ve watched - V12 Vantage Manual, 458 s, SLS coupe, some of the McLarens etc - you now have basically either no cars or no low miles collector cars to choose from, and all that is left are a selection of more used machinery.
Absolutely fine of course but I feel it s markedly different - previously you could choose something that fitted your budget miles and spec wise - plenty of choice.
We were looking for a really nice R8 V10 for a friend - good ones seem to sell instantly - if you re not ringing on the day of advertisement with something a bit tasty you re not getting the car.
Also, the number of dealers leaving cars advertised that are sold - as hooks to check demand and also as a market manipulation tool - is unbelievable. There are many where the ads have been up years. And many where a call gets a “oh I sold it last weekend” - yet three weeks later the ad for the car is still there.
Are we seeing finally the drying up of pre-nonsense (less sound more nannying less analogue) cars where enthusiasts want back catalogue? Or is it just me? Or is it transient?
And where is the smart money going?
Absolutely fine of course but I feel it s markedly different - previously you could choose something that fitted your budget miles and spec wise - plenty of choice.
We were looking for a really nice R8 V10 for a friend - good ones seem to sell instantly - if you re not ringing on the day of advertisement with something a bit tasty you re not getting the car.
Also, the number of dealers leaving cars advertised that are sold - as hooks to check demand and also as a market manipulation tool - is unbelievable. There are many where the ads have been up years. And many where a call gets a “oh I sold it last weekend” - yet three weeks later the ad for the car is still there.
Are we seeing finally the drying up of pre-nonsense (less sound more nannying less analogue) cars where enthusiasts want back catalogue? Or is it just me? Or is it transient?
And where is the smart money going?
Edited by Julian Thompson on Tuesday 28th April 06:43
One thing which surprised me getting into this market was a salesman at McNewForest saying something like, lots of my customers finance a car, have it for a year or 18 months, then swap into something else. So use finance and hold for a fairly short period; in exchange for your monthly payment you get to try a load of different cars, and always have something new to show at meets or post on socials.
Obviously this sort of ownership will ensure a free flow of cars back to market, so if you go on AT you'll see lots of cars listed at any one time.
If this ownership model becomes less common and the cars start being owned mainly by people who are in it for the long term, the numbers listed will be many fewer. One possible explanation is that what could loosely be called 'pre-hybrid' supercars are now reaching this phase. It's possible that the short-term ownership model works better with newer cars, hence the cars you're perhaps talking about ageing out of this phase.
ETA on dealers listing sold cars - the car I bought in '23 was still on AT 2-3 weeks after it was in my garage, the dealer even put the price up! They did have a note saying *deposit taken* which I guess is technically true...
Obviously this sort of ownership will ensure a free flow of cars back to market, so if you go on AT you'll see lots of cars listed at any one time.
If this ownership model becomes less common and the cars start being owned mainly by people who are in it for the long term, the numbers listed will be many fewer. One possible explanation is that what could loosely be called 'pre-hybrid' supercars are now reaching this phase. It's possible that the short-term ownership model works better with newer cars, hence the cars you're perhaps talking about ageing out of this phase.
ETA on dealers listing sold cars - the car I bought in '23 was still on AT 2-3 weeks after it was in my garage, the dealer even put the price up! They did have a note saying *deposit taken* which I guess is technically true...
Edited by samoht on Tuesday 28th April 08:41
Edited by samoht on Tuesday 28th April 08:42
It's like Estate Agents, when they sell a property they come and add "sold" to the board, they don't take it down. It's advertising that they secured the property and sold it.
Same with cars.
In my experience recently, owners are hold on to cars because now the cost to change is bigger than ever. Yours may have gone up but anything you want has gone up even more if it's a more expensive car.
I think the market is now flooded with speculators and those coaxed out of cars by the temptation of huge returns are selling to people who are in it to mothball cars and lock them away until the price increase is enough for them to sell on.
Same with cars.
In my experience recently, owners are hold on to cars because now the cost to change is bigger than ever. Yours may have gone up but anything you want has gone up even more if it's a more expensive car.
I think the market is now flooded with speculators and those coaxed out of cars by the temptation of huge returns are selling to people who are in it to mothball cars and lock them away until the price increase is enough for them to sell on.
Just called in to Porsche Silverstone with said friend - lovely staff but basically just taycans and macans wall to wall. A handful of 911. No Boxsters. No caymans. So essentially no way for my pal to spend £70k or so at that dealership. The group had a few cars to be fair, but nothing on site at all. I think people buy with their eyes so no sale today. (Not saying there would have been, he’s torn R8 / Cayman) but still, the point stands.
supersport said:
I had noticed there are definitely fewer cars around.
This time last year when I got the F12 there were about 30 for sale, now around 11.
Same the 720 spiders, about 6. Probably explains the endless texts I get asking if I want to sell.
Agreed. Take a look at SLS AMG - coupes were completely out of stock everywhere for a week. Historically there has always been 10 or so. Now there is one, I think.This time last year when I got the F12 there were about 30 for sale, now around 11.
Same the 720 spiders, about 6. Probably explains the endless texts I get asking if I want to sell.
PS There are actually about 10 F12 as I just bought the black/crema one at meridian
BSM1984 said:
Demand for McLaren 650S Spiders seems to be outstripping supply recently. Looks like any good examples that have made it on to the open market recently have been snapped up within 24Hrs of listing...
Still looks relatively good value at under £100k too?
Fantastic value when compared with its peers. Still looks relatively good value at under £100k too?
It s drying up big time
Look at 991.1 GT3 RS
360 coupe manual
F430 manuals
Not to mention no 996 GT3 or 996 GT3 RS for sale nor any 997 GT3 RS
One Gallardo superleggera or two - they were 120k a few months ago now 200k and 220k
Even Aventador SV gone from 300-425k in 6 months
This isn t seasonal - it s a shift
SLS now 250k they were 150k last year
Find an M3 GTS
Or an E46 M3 CSL
Or a CLK black edition
All of the collectible stuff is crazy
F430 manuals were 100k if that last year now 180k
Challenge stradales, pistas, scuds etc
Anything collectible is rocketing
Any kind of collectible 2000-2015 car is crazy
Look at 991.1 GT3 RS
360 coupe manual
F430 manuals
Not to mention no 996 GT3 or 996 GT3 RS for sale nor any 997 GT3 RS
One Gallardo superleggera or two - they were 120k a few months ago now 200k and 220k
Even Aventador SV gone from 300-425k in 6 months
This isn t seasonal - it s a shift
SLS now 250k they were 150k last year
Find an M3 GTS
Or an E46 M3 CSL
Or a CLK black edition
All of the collectible stuff is crazy
F430 manuals were 100k if that last year now 180k
Challenge stradales, pistas, scuds etc
Anything collectible is rocketing
Any kind of collectible 2000-2015 car is crazy
Edited by datelessregistrations on Wednesday 29th April 18:29
The bloke from Challenge the Road youtube channel (Richard Groves) put up a video this week where he explains why he just bought a 20k miles Ferrari FF in Rosso Fuoco for £100,000.
He said that buyers between 40-60 want V12 cars like these which aren't too lairy but can still do 208mph. He views his FF as an investment now.
He said that buyers between 40-60 want V12 cars like these which aren't too lairy but can still do 208mph. He views his FF as an investment now.
belfry said:
The bloke from Challenge the Road youtube channel (Richard Groves) put up a video this week where he explains why he just bought a 20k miles Ferrari FF in Rosso Fuoco for £100,000.
He said that buyers between 40-60 want V12 cars like these which aren't too lairy but can still do 208mph. He views his FF as an investment now.
Yes, I’ve watched Richard with interest - I enjoy watching him chew over the various cars kind of talking himself in and out of it, like we all do I guess. Well like I do!He said that buyers between 40-60 want V12 cars like these which aren't too lairy but can still do 208mph. He views his FF as an investment now.
As an aside - I do suspect he down-plays his relationship with his chosen dealers - I think he’s avoiding the considerable spread us plebs have to pay. Complete guess but I wonder if he’s acting as a reserve backup for them, buying, holding and making available again as required. Certainly in the normal way a £100k car would have an immediate trade depreciation of £15-20k right away, requiring the asset to increase in value from that point by 25+% just to get back to that £100k. So I do take some of the “you can run it for free” with a pinch of salt from him. I’d prefer it if he said “cheaper supercar motoring” by being smart money.
There’s a few influencers massively talking up their own book with their platform. One owns a few of the cars mentioned above and I suspect ideally wants to offload them once price is right. Seems extremely excited when a new ceiling gets set for whatever model it is.
Don’t get me started on that f
king Autofolio ste that seems to follow me around the internet. “Investment grade car” - Christ.
It feels all very like the watch market did a few years back, which obviously all came crashing down once cheap money went awol. Maybe the car market is more resilient.
Don’t get me started on that f
king Autofolio ste that seems to follow me around the internet. “Investment grade car” - Christ. It feels all very like the watch market did a few years back, which obviously all came crashing down once cheap money went awol. Maybe the car market is more resilient.
My notes on it fwiw, a bit jumbled - as it came out of my head:
1) it looks like a supply problem caused by the new products being not as desirable to enthusiasts due to hybrid anxiety, overbearing safety systems, impending driver facing cameras, lack of sound, lack of cylinders and even plain old lack of models (Porsche etc) - all this resulting lack of trickle down of trade ins.
1b) Most price rises do actually seem fairly modest when the cars do come to market - a couple of exceptions like the special Ferrari models and the SLS and 675LT) - the real problem is that the cars are just not coming to market.
1c) The reason they’re not coming to market would suspect is denial from the trade about the prices that the sellers need to be offered to capitulate. The trade is used to that 15-20% margin being easily do-able by low balling the seller and then selling at accepted paradigm price. The sellers are now shrugging their shoulders and the trade is convinced a cheap one is coming. But it might not be.
1d) interest rate hikes already shook a lot of the speculators and “I’ve got no capital at all but I’ll run this gt3 for free as I have a bent Porsche dealer that I’ve schmoozed to skip the queue” out of the market. You now might have people that want their cars more than the current price points.
1e) but equally you might/(will!) have plenty of popcorn eating bystanders with assets tucked away ready to dump them on the market as soon as they see a level they are happy with. I suspect a fair few people are overstocked. There could be a capitulation point for the lower level - the question is whether there are any buyers at the point the sellers want to sell.
Supported by
2) the U.K. special used car pool has been historically cheaper than most other countries.
3) new performance cars of all stripes are very expensive indeed anyway.
1) it looks like a supply problem caused by the new products being not as desirable to enthusiasts due to hybrid anxiety, overbearing safety systems, impending driver facing cameras, lack of sound, lack of cylinders and even plain old lack of models (Porsche etc) - all this resulting lack of trickle down of trade ins.
1b) Most price rises do actually seem fairly modest when the cars do come to market - a couple of exceptions like the special Ferrari models and the SLS and 675LT) - the real problem is that the cars are just not coming to market.
1c) The reason they’re not coming to market would suspect is denial from the trade about the prices that the sellers need to be offered to capitulate. The trade is used to that 15-20% margin being easily do-able by low balling the seller and then selling at accepted paradigm price. The sellers are now shrugging their shoulders and the trade is convinced a cheap one is coming. But it might not be.
1d) interest rate hikes already shook a lot of the speculators and “I’ve got no capital at all but I’ll run this gt3 for free as I have a bent Porsche dealer that I’ve schmoozed to skip the queue” out of the market. You now might have people that want their cars more than the current price points.
1e) but equally you might/(will!) have plenty of popcorn eating bystanders with assets tucked away ready to dump them on the market as soon as they see a level they are happy with. I suspect a fair few people are overstocked. There could be a capitulation point for the lower level - the question is whether there are any buyers at the point the sellers want to sell.
Supported by
2) the U.K. special used car pool has been historically cheaper than most other countries.
3) new performance cars of all stripes are very expensive indeed anyway.
A couple of cars I have been watching lately:-
675LT & 987 Spyder. Both have gone up quite a bit. Why?
1. New cars are expensive and have BIG depreciation. EG 296GTB. £350-£300k new. 2k miles and 3 years later £180k.
2. New cars have GPF / ADAS / over intrusive TC modes / hybrid batteries / heavy / digital dash / no manual / expensive warranties / EPS etc / no manual option.
3. The cars without above will NEVER be made again due to legislation. There is a limited pool of cars that have been made that exist. EG 75 x RHD 675LT coupes and 100 RHD Manual spyders (50 with carbon buckets).
If you want one of these pre-legislation overload, simpler, lighter more analogue cars then in a world of 8.3 billion people there are 50 manual RHD 987 spyders with buckets and 70 x RHD 675LT coupes (21 if you want a scoop).
Cars are not like a Rolex Daytona, they can't make anymore of these cars, thats it. And in a world where people are moving money to assets and losing faith in property / crypto / stocks. Its good to have a tangible asset that is also tax free from gains.
So anything up to around 2018 (pre-gpf) that is in limited numbers (under 500-1,000) is probably going to increase. typically that means 10% RHD so 50-100 UK cars.
Cars to watch (IMHO):-
675LT
650S
12C
987 Spyder
Cayman R
C63AMG (6.2L NA)
AMG (most with 6.2L NA or 55 supercharged)
E46M3 manual coupe
Z3M (S54) coupe and roadster
Clio Trophy
Clio V6
V12 Vantage manual
F430 manual
F360 manual
FF
S2000
Elise / Exige (rarer 160/190 low miles + original examples)
Esprit S1
I think most 1960's and older are losing their appeal due to generational changes. And even 80's cars (except collector grade cars) have probably topped out.
675LT & 987 Spyder. Both have gone up quite a bit. Why?
1. New cars are expensive and have BIG depreciation. EG 296GTB. £350-£300k new. 2k miles and 3 years later £180k.
2. New cars have GPF / ADAS / over intrusive TC modes / hybrid batteries / heavy / digital dash / no manual / expensive warranties / EPS etc / no manual option.
3. The cars without above will NEVER be made again due to legislation. There is a limited pool of cars that have been made that exist. EG 75 x RHD 675LT coupes and 100 RHD Manual spyders (50 with carbon buckets).
If you want one of these pre-legislation overload, simpler, lighter more analogue cars then in a world of 8.3 billion people there are 50 manual RHD 987 spyders with buckets and 70 x RHD 675LT coupes (21 if you want a scoop).
Cars are not like a Rolex Daytona, they can't make anymore of these cars, thats it. And in a world where people are moving money to assets and losing faith in property / crypto / stocks. Its good to have a tangible asset that is also tax free from gains.
So anything up to around 2018 (pre-gpf) that is in limited numbers (under 500-1,000) is probably going to increase. typically that means 10% RHD so 50-100 UK cars.
Cars to watch (IMHO):-
675LT
650S
12C
987 Spyder
Cayman R
C63AMG (6.2L NA)
AMG (most with 6.2L NA or 55 supercharged)
E46M3 manual coupe
Z3M (S54) coupe and roadster
Clio Trophy
Clio V6
V12 Vantage manual
F430 manual
F360 manual
FF
S2000
Elise / Exige (rarer 160/190 low miles + original examples)
Esprit S1
I think most 1960's and older are losing their appeal due to generational changes. And even 80's cars (except collector grade cars) have probably topped out.
andrew said:
4) cars now supporting an alternative investment market for corporates and private individuals
Possibly.Metals are at an all time high.
Equities are at an all time high, possibly/probably in a tech bubble with 7 companies making up almost a third of the Global valuation.
10-30 year Gilts are paying 5% or more and with a potential recession are likely to rise further (ie gilt prices drop).
Oil is hitting record highs (again).
Property (at least in the UK) is slovenly on potential interest rate rises.
So anyone with money tucked away is looking for somewhere else to put it, which mainly leaves cars and artwork, and in the UK artwork attracts CGT.
andrew said:
Bispal said:
andrew said:
4) cars now supporting an alternative investment market for corporates and private individuals
I actually said that.......But yes, in the USA banks & financial institutions are buying cars to hold.
One by one they all started disappearing until only 1 or 2 left 3~4 weeks ago.
Now all of a sudden back up to 10 for sale,but prices now ranging £375k~£440k.
According to a salesperson I spoke to at a main dealer,chat gpt partly guilty as apparently people using AI
for car investment advice.
Paul
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