Ferrari California

[bad company]

I was 'lucky' enough to get myself near the front of the list for this new car.

I'm in a bit of a dilema now. In a way I still want the car but I am really concerned the prospect of savage depreciation. I guess it will depend on the numbers they produce.

Any thoughts?

[bertie]

I think the days of premiums and over list sales on new models are gone and you have to be realistic and assume it's going to loose 15% a year on average as is everything.

Only you can decide if that's acceptable to you.

Just my opinion.

Edited by bertie on Tuesday 30th September 12:02

[Pugsey]

I think that people who get the VERY FIRST cars will still be able to get a premium (there's ALWAYS someone who wants the latest toy NOW, even in these times) but the window of opportunity will be very narrow. Similarly you could probably run one of the first cars for three or four months and get out with minimal pain. Beyond that and you'll be in a 'normal' depreciation' situation I'd guess.

[SAGPACK]

Pugsey said:

I think that people who get the VERY FIRST cars will still be able to get a premium (there's ALWAYS someone who wants the latest toy NOW, even in these times) but the window of opportunity will be very narrow. Similarly you could probably run one of the first cars for three or four months and get out with minimal pain. Beyond that and you'll be in a 'normal' depreciation' situation I'd guess.

+1, although what would you say is normal? Bertie says 15%, currently I'd say you're likely to lose 20 - 25% almost straight away unless you are one of the very first owners.

[anonymous-user]

funny how things go in cycles. The oil crisis proved tricky for the 308 GT4 launch in the middle of it. Never fully recovered despite being a great package. If California production volumes are relatively high, that will impact residuals even further. Maybe getting shot of the cup holders will help a little ?

[Pugsey]

SAGPACK said:

Pugsey said:

I think that people who get the VERY FIRST cars will still be able to get a premium (there's ALWAYS someone who wants the latest toy NOW, even in these times) but the window of opportunity will be very narrow. Similarly you could probably run one of the first cars for three or four months and get out with minimal pain. Beyond that and you'll be in a 'normal' depreciation' situation I'd guess.

+1, although what would you say is normal? Bertie says 15%, currently I'd say you're likely to lose 20 - 25% almost straight away unless you are one of the very first owners.

If you got one of the very first then I'll stick my neck out and say if you keep the car twelve months you'll be looking at 10%, IF you time it right and get out at that point just before the first wave of used cars hits the market. From there on in then yes, I'd go with your 20% and the difference between you loosing 20% instead of 10% on that early car could be a matter of a few weeks IMO.

Edited by Pugsey on Tuesday 30th September 13:31

[Vesuvius 996]

SAGPACK said:

Pugsey said:

I think that people who get the VERY FIRST cars will still be able to get a premium (there's ALWAYS someone who wants the latest toy NOW, even in these times) but the window of opportunity will be very narrow. Similarly you could probably run one of the first cars for three or four months and get out with minimal pain. Beyond that and you'll be in a 'normal' depreciation' situation I'd guess.

+1, although what would you say is normal? Bertie says 15%, currently I'd say you're likely to lose 20 - 25% almost straight away unless you are one of the very first owners.

If you just get it, and sell it to Tom Hartley you might make your money back. If you have the first car in the country.


I've just been offered a 360 Modena by a Fezza dealer for £6000 down and £500 a month. That's how desperate they are.

[Davey S2]

Hi Barry

What sort of delivery date are you looking at? As said if it is a very early car then you could be ok but other than that I wouldnt bother unless you want it to keep and drive.

Personally I would keep the 430 and enjoy that.

[Pugsey]

Vesuvius 996 said:

If you just get it, and sell it to Tom Hartley you might make your money back. If you have the first car in the country.

In other words, as I said, the very first cars will probably make a premium although why you'd pass it on to Hartley or anyone else to pocket the profit is anyone's guess.

[SAGPACK]

Pugsey said:

SAGPACK said:

Pugsey said:

I think that people who get the VERY FIRST cars will still be able to get a premium (there's ALWAYS someone who wants the latest toy NOW, even in these times) but the window of opportunity will be very narrow. Similarly you could probably run one of the first cars for three or four months and get out with minimal pain. Beyond that and you'll be in a 'normal' depreciation' situation I'd guess.

+1, although what would you say is normal? Bertie says 15%, currently I'd say you're likely to lose 20 - 25% almost straight away unless you are one of the very first owners.

If you got one of the very first then I'll stick my neck out and say if you keep the car twelve months you'll be looking at 10%, IF you time it right and get out at that point just before the first wave of used cars hits the market. From there on in then yes, I'd go with your 20% and the difference between you loosing 20% instead of 10% on that early car could be a matter of a few weeks IMO.

Edited by Pugsey on Tuesday 30th September 13:31

10% over the first 12 months.....you going to underwrite that one Pugsey??
....seriously though, you're probably right about the very first few cars, especially with it allegedly being aimed at a much broader market than previous new models, providing all the foreign money hasn't buggered off back home by the time it comes out (because the UK's gone t*tts up by then)then there'll almost certainly be someone who will pay close to list.

[Pugsey]

SAGPACK said:

Pugsey said:

SAGPACK said:

Pugsey said:

I think that people who get the VERY FIRST cars will still be able to get a premium (there's ALWAYS someone who wants the latest toy NOW, even in these times) but the window of opportunity will be very narrow. Similarly you could probably run one of the first cars for three or four months and get out with minimal pain. Beyond that and you'll be in a 'normal' depreciation' situation I'd guess.

+1, although what would you say is normal? Bertie says 15%, currently I'd say you're likely to lose 20 - 25% almost straight away unless you are one of the very first owners.

If you got one of the very first then I'll stick my neck out and say if you keep the car twelve months you'll be looking at 10%, IF you time it right and get out at that point just before the first wave of used cars hits the market. From there on in then yes, I'd go with your 20% and the difference between you loosing 20% instead of 10% on that early car could be a matter of a few weeks IMO.

Edited by Pugsey on Tuesday 30th September 13:31

10% over the first 12 months.....you going to underwrite that one Pugsey??
....seriously though, you're probably right about the very first few cars, especially with it allegedly being aimed at a much broader market than previous new models, providing all the foreign money hasn't buggered off back home by the time it comes out (because the UK's gone t*tts up by then)then there'll almost certainly be someone who will pay close to list.

Given that I'm putting my money where my mouth is - as I've done with my last few cars, all of which have been the first of that particular new, 'must have' model - then yes. Gulp!

[Pugsey]

Vesuvius 996 said:

I've just been offered a 360 Modena by a Fezza dealer for £6000 down and £500 a month. That's how desperate they are.

Offers on old, out of date models don't really have any bearing on the fact that when the latest new must have toy comes out there will always be a footballer with more money than sense who wakes up and wants one NOW, THIS SECOND!

Edited by Pugsey on Tuesday 30th September 14:31

[Vesuvius 996]

Pugsey said:

Vesuvius 996 said:

I've just been offered a 360 Modena by a Fezza dealer for £6000 down and £500 a month. That's how desperate they are.

Offers on old, out of date models don't really have any bearing on the fact when the latest new must have toy comes out there will always be a footballer with more money than sense who wakes up and wants one NOW, THIS SECOND!

Aye, fair point.

V996 (poor)

[MogulBoy]

I would have thought that even in the current climate, Californias would be expected to trade at a premium through to next summer ***but for the fact that*** many folk on the list, like you, are already considering cancelling their orders...

All it would take is a steady trickle of people in your position to pull out and all of a sudden, supply catches up with demand (which I don't doubt is there) and any notion of premiums will come under serious pressure.

It's only going to head South from there although as it'll still be a 'the new Ferrari' next summer, and on the assumption that it gets good reviews, it'll remain sufficiently new /fashiionable / rare to protect it from the worst of what we see in terms of losses on other premuim motors for a few years, I'd wager.

[Pugsey]

Vesuvius 996 said:

Pugsey said:

Vesuvius 996 said:

I've just been offered a 360 Modena by a Fezza dealer for £6000 down and £500 a month. That's how desperate they are.

Offers on old, out of date models don't really have any bearing on the fact when the latest new must have toy comes out there will always be a footballer with more money than sense who wakes up and wants one NOW, THIS SECOND!

Aye, fair point.

V996 (poor)

Cheers. Don't get me wrong mind. If I didn't have the chance of playing the 'first in and out' game I'd always go for the prev. model of most marques. That's where the value lies and let's face it, if they were stunning cars a handful of years ago then they're not exactly a pile of crap now are they?

Edited by Pugsey on Tuesday 30th September 14:41

[Vesuvius 996]

Pugsey said:

Vesuvius 996 said:

Pugsey said:

Vesuvius 996 said:

I've just been offered a 360 Modena by a Fezza dealer for £6000 down and £500 a month. That's how desperate they are.

Offers on old, out of date models don't really have any bearing on the fact when the latest new must have toy comes out there will always be a footballer with more money than sense who wakes up and wants one NOW, THIS SECOND!

Aye, fair point.

V996 (poor)

Cheers. Don't get me wrong mind. If I didn't have the chance of playing the 'first in and out game' I'd always go for the prev. model of most marques. That's where the value lies and let's face it, if they were stunning cars a handful of years ago then they're not exactly a pile of crap now are they?

No sir.

Slightly off topic, do you know anything about DK Engineering? Any good?

[Pugsey]

Vesuvius 996 said:

Slightly off topic, do you know anything about DK Engineering? Any good?

Can't comment first hand but do know a few who have dealt with them (both at the top and bottom end of the market price wise) and all have been positive about them. Not the cheapest I understand - but thereby oft hangs the tale?

[bad company]

Davey S2 said:

Hi Barry

What sort of delivery date are you looking at? As said if it is a very early car then you could be ok but other than that I wouldnt bother unless you want it to keep and drive.

Personally I would keep the 430 and enjoy that.

Davey

I sold the 430 as I did not want to be trying to sell during the winter months. Also the prices seem to have fallen even more since I sold it.

Not sure of the delivery date of the California but I paid the deposit a few months ago now.

I wasn't really hanging on for a premium - but I am getting worried about the fairly savage depreciation on 360/430's.

[Pugsey]

MogulBoy said:

All it would take is a steady trickle of people in your position to pull out and all of a sudden, supply catches up with demand (which I don't doubt is there) and any notion of premiums will come under serious pressure.

Must admit I can't think of a new car in recent years where there hasn't been talk of last minute cancelled orders and it never seems to effect the market. Peoples plans often change over the years between ordering and the car actually happening, others had ideas bigger than their wallets etc., etc., etc. Maybe it shrinks the initial say two year waiting list to 18 months but that's it. All the reason to get in early though I guess.

[Pugsey]

bad company said:

Davey S2 said:

Hi Barry

What sort of delivery date are you looking at? As said if it is a very early car then you could be ok but other than that I wouldnt bother unless you want it to keep and drive.

Personally I would keep the 430 and enjoy that.

Davey

I sold the 430 as I did not want to be trying to sell during the winter months. Also the prices seem to have fallen even more since I sold it.

Not sure of the delivery date of the California but I paid the deposit a few months ago now.

I wasn't really hanging on for a premium - but I am getting worried about the fairly savage depreciation on 360/430's.

You timed that well! £125k 430 late summer '07 prob now a £90k car at very best and a lot less trade.

If you've got dibs on a genuinely early California then I wouldn't loose sleep over it. I'm sure you'll have a number of escape routes - either immediate or short term - open to you come the time.

Edited by Pugsey on Tuesday 30th September 15:23