So what do we think the California residuals will be like?

[mikey k]

Keep looking at F430 spiders but I actually prefer the tin top idea.
Just wondering waht you reckon the residual will be like on a California after 12 months?
I know it is early to tell but no harm in a straw pole

[bertie]

I think every high end production car, absolutely everything will take a spanking.

The only exceptions are the hypercars like Reventons and Enzos etc.

But your production stuff is all going to take a bath, the days of low depreciation on new cars are over IMHO.

Edited by bertie on Tuesday 16th December 17:12

[clorenzen]

Just look at Porsche GT2s and Aston DBS' or for that sake new 599s. You will probably secure a new car at a 25% cash discount these days. Eventually output will be curtailed so that the current overhang in supply will be reduced and then the situation will stabilise but for the time being it is carnage out there.
Also, even if you can afford a new car why would you actually buy one now - it is being considered more and more uncool to turn up in a new car. I'll rather drive my present car for another year and put the cash in AAA-rated bonds in the meantime. They are currently completely bombed out and at leat you know that they will eventually recover once the liquidity in the market comes back unlike top-end cars that will just continue to depreciate - and in a year from now you will be able to buy the car for the profits you've made on the bonds.

Edited by clorenzen on Tuesday 16th December 17:35

[andy355]

i hope you choose your AAA bonds wisely....

[DeltaHedge]

mikey k said:

Keep looking at F430 spiders but I actually prefer the tin top idea.
Just wondering waht you reckon the residual will be like on a California after 12 months?
I know it is early to tell but no harm in a straw pole

You're talking 2010 so might not be as bad as it would be if next year, but this is relatively high production, high price.....

If they're 150k-ish specced then 12 months on......100 for a trade bid? The Scud is 6 months old and already some have changed hands to the trade for 60 under, but thats in this climate, it can't really get much worse (famous last words....!). So you asked for a number, thats my guess!

[Lambojim]

I've just cancelled my order on this basis, was due to get the 6th car (apparently)I had no intention of flipping it but didn't want to get hurt too badly in the first 12 months. In truth, I'll have a year old 599 for £120k in the new year over the (approx) £156k my California was going to cost me. Agree with the previous poster about residuals on everything getting whacked - shame you never feel rich enough to really take advantage when prices are tumbling...such is life;)

[DeltaHedge]

Lambojim said:

I've just cancelled my order on this basis, was due to get the 6th car (apparently)I had no intention of flipping it but didn't want to get hurt too badly in the first 12 months. In truth, I'll have a year old 599 for £120k in the new year over the (approx) £156k my California was going to cost me. Agree with the previous poster about residuals on everything getting whacked - shame you never feel rich enough to really take advantage when prices are tumbling...such is life;)

Agree with Jim - the thing is that even being able to afford something doesn't mean you enjoy knowing you're pissing money out of the exhaust. I sold my Scud due to a dislike of the F1 box, but thats just me, looking back was lucky to have done so. I'm not taking the California either due to the same box problem (which gives me an issue with all future Ferraris - drove an Enzo recently to see if I could ignore the box and buy one of them, but no), but the fact that I'll miss out of pretty steep depreciation is something of a bonus.

[15HN]

DeltaHedge said:

The Scud is 6 months old and already some have changed hands to the trade for 60 under

Is it really that bad?

[andrew.]

andy355 said:

i hope you choose your AAA bonds wisely....

[mike360]

15HN said:

DeltaHedge said:

The Scud is 6 months old and already some have changed hands to the trade for 60 under

Is it really that bad?

under £60,000 i doubt it.

[traxx]

DeltaHedge said:

The Scud is 6 months old and already some have changed hands to the trade for 60 under!

where?

[evil_dr_fish]

For fear of missing sarcasm due to the internet humour filter:

60 under(list) - not under 60!


If it was good ol' p155 taking then... Carry on, you scallywags







Dislike nasty, flappy gearboxes?

...I think I have just the very car for you sir...






If you get one - please take me for a spin!!!!

[Chris355]

I agree in this market residual will be poor. A year ago you would have been able to buy one, keep it for a while and sell at list or premium - those days have gone for a while!

Very few safe cars to put your money in. If you want your money to be safe buy gold!

[anonymous-user]

DeltaHedge said:

Lambojim said:

I've just cancelled my order on this basis, was due to get the 6th car (apparently)I had no intention of flipping it but didn't want to get hurt too badly in the first 12 months. In truth, I'll have a year old 599 for £120k in the new year over the (approx) £156k my California was going to cost me. Agree with the previous poster about residuals on everything getting whacked - shame you never feel rich enough to really take advantage when prices are tumbling...such is life;)

Agree with Jim - the thing is that even being able to afford something doesn't mean you enjoy knowing you're pissing money out of the exhaust. I sold my Scud due to a dislike of the F1 box, but thats just me, looking back was lucky to have done so. I'm not taking the California either due to the same box problem (which gives me an issue with all future Ferraris - drove an Enzo recently to see if I could ignore the box and buy one of them, but no), but the fact that I'll miss out of pretty steep depreciation is something of a bonus.

I believe the California can be ordered with a traditional stick, and will be the last model ever with manual gate option.

[clorenzen]

andrew. said:

andy355 said:

i hope you choose your AAA bonds wisely....

Well put it like this. Yields on some of the bonds are now so high, that if you can afford to hold them to maturity (in some cases 3-4 years) it doesn't actually matter whether they go tits up after that as the yield alone would have paid for the investment. This market is seriously sick... Well let's go back to cars - a far more interesting subject.

599 are getting seriously cheap these days with the 08s hitting 150k. That is a 70k depreciation in under 12 months and taking into account that the prices are still unajusted for the recent fall in the £ against the Euro, Ferrari will not be able to maintain the 220k list price for much longer unless it becomes a loss leader which is very unlike Ferrari.

[Jules360]

clorenzen said:

andrew. said:

andy355 said:

i hope you choose your AAA bonds wisely....

Well put it like this. Yields on some of the bonds are now so high, that if you can afford to hold them to maturity (in some cases 3-4 years) it doesn't actually matter whether they go tits up after that as the yield alone would have paid for the investment. This market is seriously sick... Well let's go back to cars - a far more interesting subject.

599 are getting seriously cheap these days with the 08s hitting 150k. That is a 70k depreciation in under 12 months and taking into account that the prices are still unajusted for the recent fall in the £ against the Euro, Ferrari will not be able to maintain the 220k list price for much longer unless it becomes a loss leader which is very unlike Ferrari.

Yields are high for a reason...

[clorenzen]

Jules360 said:

clorenzen said:

andrew. said:

andy355 said:

i hope you choose your AAA bonds wisely....

Well put it like this. Yields on some of the bonds are now so high, that if you can afford to hold them to maturity (in some cases 3-4 years) it doesn't actually matter whether they go tits up after that as the yield alone would have paid for the investment. This market is seriously sick... Well let's go back to cars - a far more interesting subject.

599 are getting seriously cheap these days with the 08s hitting 150k. That is a 70k depreciation in under 12 months and taking into account that the prices are still unajusted for the recent fall in the £ against the Euro, Ferrari will not be able to maintain the 220k list price for much longer unless it becomes a loss leader which is very unlike Ferrari.

Yields are high for a reason...

Agree - but my point is that the yields are driven by lack of liquidity rather than the imminent threat of default of every single AAA bond. If the chance of default is that high as suggested by the yields, the equity market is totally overvalued as it would need to go much further down to adjust for this fear (which it might do...)

[PST 1]

Lambojim said:

I've just cancelled my order on this basis, was due to get the 6th car (apparently)I had no intention of flipping it but didn't want to get hurt too badly in the first 12 months. In truth, I'll have a year old 599 for £120k in the new year over the (approx) £156k my California was going to cost me. Agree with the previous poster about residuals on everything getting whacked - shame you never feel rich enough to really take advantage when prices are tumbling...such is life;)

Lambojim!!!!!
You have only cancelled because you were worried you would not be able to go round the Fiorano Circiut as quick as you did in the 612!!! But then there were some discrepancies on times that day!!

[Lambojim]

PST - you're not wrong. That was a great day and if anything, I'd take a GTS equipped 612 with the panoramic roof over a California next year. Just got to put this horrible sinking feeling I've got about the economy to the side...I'm sure I can't hold back for long

[Murcielago_Boy]

clorenzen said:

Jules360 said:

clorenzen said:

andrew. said:

andy355 said:

i hope you choose your AAA bonds wisely....

Well put it like this. Yields on some of the bonds are now so high, that if you can afford to hold them to maturity (in some cases 3-4 years) it doesn't actually matter whether they go tits up after that as the yield alone would have paid for the investment. This market is seriously sick... Well let's go back to cars - a far more interesting subject.

599 are getting seriously cheap these days with the 08s hitting 150k. That is a 70k depreciation in under 12 months and taking into account that the prices are still unajusted for the recent fall in the £ against the Euro, Ferrari will not be able to maintain the 220k list price for much longer unless it becomes a loss leader which is very unlike Ferrari.

Yields are high for a reason...

Agree - but my point is that the yields are driven by lack of liquidity rather than the imminent threat of default of every single AAA bond. If the chance of default is that high as suggested by the yields, the equity market is totally overvalued as it would need to go much further down to adjust for this fear (which it might do...)

Interesting thread.
The pr1ck rating agencies are a shambles and IMO, their lack of understanding, when rating securities they didn't understand, is at the centre of the "financial side" of what's going today..... as a result what does AAA- or "junk" mean anymore anyway....? It's all crap.

Back to cars. Ferrari were intending to churn out the GranTurismo S Spider, sorry, I meant California, this year but are delaying it because of what's going on in the global economy.
I went to the preview and was decidedly unimpressed although it looks better in the metal than in pictures.
I was offered (and I don't believe it for a second, I'm just not an important enough Ferrari customer) the very first car in the whole country and I wouldn't touch that even if I won the billion Euro spanish lottery and my girlfriend wanted one...
It's just another old mans Ferrari - it doesn't take me to tell you it's residuals will be hopeless but I suspect that no volume, unfocussed supercar EVER has good long term residuals. Had this car been released in 2006 it would still have fared badly......

Delta - get the Enzo down to Michelloto and ask them to put a "proper" gearbox in it - I'm serious. A pal had this treatment done to one of his two Enzos and the box shifts like an F1 car (what I mean is, the gearbox is actually out of an F1 car)- needs to be rebuilt quite frequently but hey ho...

Edited by Murcielago_Boy on Monday 22 December 14:37