Passing the licence in the London area?
Discussion
I have just moved to London and several office colleagues use motorbikes for commuting and recommend it highly. So I would, in the next future want to go down that route myself.
My question is if there are any driving schools you'd particularly recommend? I'd want to get the full licence, so that I can ride any displacement from the start and am 27 (have an EU car and truck driving licence).
And given that I am in the process of finishing my PhD on the future of motorcycling in the developed world, I better learn to ride myself and do my part in ensuring there is a future
My question is if there are any driving schools you'd particularly recommend? I'd want to get the full licence, so that I can ride any displacement from the start and am 27 (have an EU car and truck driving licence).
And given that I am in the process of finishing my PhD on the future of motorcycling in the developed world, I better learn to ride myself and do my part in ensuring there is a future
Sounds fascinating! The basic issue is that it looks likely that motorcyclists are to die out in the coming decades, simply through a process of aging. Learning to ride is seemingly something hardly anyone attempts after the age of 28, for a start. This means that quick changes to the numbers are unlikely. At the moment the development is along the lines of quite some of the people who have ever passed a licence riding (an increasing number, especially the 90s saw a rise). In addition to that people are riding to a more mature age - over 80 being semi normal, even. 
On the other hand there are very few young riders entering the pool of motorcyclists. In the specific case of Germany that I am looking at at the moment, if current trends continue in 5-10 years there will be more motorcyclists older than 80 than under 21s (still riding, not simply being alive) and many more in the 76-80 age group than in the 21-25, which is both shocking and problematic.
The motorcycle for young people has several problems, not presentto such an extent before. First of all it is more rarely seen as a means of transportation primarily, at least in developed countries. So fewer people have a real need to learn and ride one. Additionally it is not easy for youngsters to get into biking. There is little advertising around to draw them towards it, in fact the marketing budget for all motocycle manufacturers for Germany is a measly 19 million Euros, less than any car manufacturer would spend alone. This means it is confined mostly to motorcycle magazines, which is directed at gaining market share, not increasing market size. In addition the image of the biker, as lived by the current crop of 40+ bikers and as glorified by the advertising doesn't appeal to a majority of the young.
In any case, the problem is made more severe by the presence of several reinforcing loops in the system, meaning that a drop in the pool of motorcyclists will produce an acceleration in the drop in the future (and vice versa, a rise has positive effects for increasing the rate of "conversion" in the future).
In a nutshell, then
Actually when I get to the quantitative part I might post more here (if that is aceptable) to get some "rich picture" information from as many people as possible.
On the other hand there are very few young riders entering the pool of motorcyclists. In the specific case of Germany that I am looking at at the moment, if current trends continue in 5-10 years there will be more motorcyclists older than 80 than under 21s (still riding, not simply being alive) and many more in the 76-80 age group than in the 21-25, which is both shocking and problematic.
The motorcycle for young people has several problems, not presentto such an extent before. First of all it is more rarely seen as a means of transportation primarily, at least in developed countries. So fewer people have a real need to learn and ride one. Additionally it is not easy for youngsters to get into biking. There is little advertising around to draw them towards it, in fact the marketing budget for all motocycle manufacturers for Germany is a measly 19 million Euros, less than any car manufacturer would spend alone. This means it is confined mostly to motorcycle magazines, which is directed at gaining market share, not increasing market size. In addition the image of the biker, as lived by the current crop of 40+ bikers and as glorified by the advertising doesn't appeal to a majority of the young.
In any case, the problem is made more severe by the presence of several reinforcing loops in the system, meaning that a drop in the pool of motorcyclists will produce an acceleration in the drop in the future (and vice versa, a rise has positive effects for increasing the rate of "conversion" in the future).
In a nutshell, then
Actually when I get to the quantitative part I might post more here (if that is aceptable) to get some "rich picture" information from as many people as possible.
KM2 said:
The basic issue is that it looks likely that motorcyclists are to die out in the coming decades, simply through a process of aging. Learning to ride is seemingly something hardly anyone attempts after the age of 28, for a start. This means that quick changes to the numbers are unlikely. At the moment the development is along the lines of quite some of the people who have ever passed a licence riding (an increasing number, especially the 90s saw a rise). In addition to that people are riding to a more mature age - over 80 being semi normal, even.
On the other hand there are very few young riders entering the pool of motorcyclists. In the specific case of Germany that I am looking at at the moment, if current trends continue in 5-10 years there will be more motorcyclists older than 80 than under 21s (still riding, not simply being alive) and many more in the 76-80 age group than in the 21-25, which is both shocking and problematic.
The motorcycle for young people has several problems, not presentto such an extent before. First of all it is more rarely seen as a means of transportation primarily, at least in developed countries. So fewer people have a real need to learn and ride one. Additionally it is not easy for youngsters to get into biking. There is little advertising around to draw them towards it, in fact the marketing budget for all motocycle manufacturers for Germany is a measly 19 million Euros, less than any car manufacturer would spend alone. This means it is confined mostly to motorcycle magazines, which is directed at gaining market share, not increasing market size. In addition the image of the biker, as lived by the current crop of 40+ bikers and as glorified by the advertising doesn't appeal to a majority of the young.
In any case, the problem is made more severe by the presence of several reinforcing loops in the system, meaning that a drop in the pool of motorcyclists will produce an acceleration in the drop in the future (and vice versa, a rise has positive effects for increasing the rate of "conversion" in the future).
In a nutshell, then
Actually when I get to the quantitative part I might post more here (if that is aceptable) to get some "rich picture" information from as many people as possible.
Very interesting. What are these "reinforcing loops?" Please PM if this is getting offtopic. On the other hand there are very few young riders entering the pool of motorcyclists. In the specific case of Germany that I am looking at at the moment, if current trends continue in 5-10 years there will be more motorcyclists older than 80 than under 21s (still riding, not simply being alive) and many more in the 76-80 age group than in the 21-25, which is both shocking and problematic.
The motorcycle for young people has several problems, not presentto such an extent before. First of all it is more rarely seen as a means of transportation primarily, at least in developed countries. So fewer people have a real need to learn and ride one. Additionally it is not easy for youngsters to get into biking. There is little advertising around to draw them towards it, in fact the marketing budget for all motocycle manufacturers for Germany is a measly 19 million Euros, less than any car manufacturer would spend alone. This means it is confined mostly to motorcycle magazines, which is directed at gaining market share, not increasing market size. In addition the image of the biker, as lived by the current crop of 40+ bikers and as glorified by the advertising doesn't appeal to a majority of the young.
In any case, the problem is made more severe by the presence of several reinforcing loops in the system, meaning that a drop in the pool of motorcyclists will produce an acceleration in the drop in the future (and vice versa, a rise has positive effects for increasing the rate of "conversion" in the future).
In a nutshell, then
Actually when I get to the quantitative part I might post more here (if that is aceptable) to get some "rich picture" information from as many people as possible.
Should I make a separate topic out of it?
Btw. the reinforcing loops would have to do with seeing riders on the streets (and hopefully identifying), with supporting infrastructure, with people you consider relevant peers riding a motorbike, hence you wanting to do so too, motorsport visibility - if interest is high, motorsport gets a boost and it is more easily followed, as media presence makes sense (advertising and all), making it again easier for would be's to see more of it, etc.
I could take you through loop by loop The idea is to make a computer simulation model and simulate several scenarios, to find levers which the manufacturers or other interested bodies could operate in order to slow or reverse the trend
Btw. the reinforcing loops would have to do with seeing riders on the streets (and hopefully identifying), with supporting infrastructure, with people you consider relevant peers riding a motorbike, hence you wanting to do so too, motorsport visibility - if interest is high, motorsport gets a boost and it is more easily followed, as media presence makes sense (advertising and all), making it again easier for would be's to see more of it, etc.
I could take you through loop by loop
The idea is to make a computer simulation model and simulate several scenarios, to find levers which the manufacturers or other interested bodies could operate in order to slow or reverse the trend KM2 said:
Should I make a separate topic out of it?
Btw. the reinforcing loops would have to do with seeing riders on the streets (and hopefully identifying), with supporting infrastructure, with people you consider relevant peers riding a motorbike, hence you wanting to do so too, motorsport visibility - if interest is high, motorsport gets a boost and it is more easily followed, as media presence makes sense (advertising and all), making it again easier for would be's to see more of it, etc.
I could take you through loop by loop The idea is to make a computer simulation model and simulate several scenarios, to find levers which the manufacturers or other interested bodies could operate in order to slow or reverse the trend
Wow, very interesting. Please start another topic, Motorcycling Trends (or something similar). I would love to learn more. Btw. the reinforcing loops would have to do with seeing riders on the streets (and hopefully identifying), with supporting infrastructure, with people you consider relevant peers riding a motorbike, hence you wanting to do so too, motorsport visibility - if interest is high, motorsport gets a boost and it is more easily followed, as media presence makes sense (advertising and all), making it again easier for would be's to see more of it, etc.
I could take you through loop by loop
The idea is to make a computer simulation model and simulate several scenarios, to find levers which the manufacturers or other interested bodies could operate in order to slow or reverse the trend Edit: I started the thread Motorcycling and Demographic Trends. Please continue there re. this stuff--I find it very interesting.
Edited by orgasmicliving!! on Thursday 24th August 16:35
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