Bikers dying out?
Discussion
I am currently in the process of writing my PhD, which is on the subject of long term survival of the motorcycle industry and have been encouraged in another thread here to post a separate topic with the issue.
I would be very much interested in all your views here.
After preliminary research I plan constructing a simulation model of the "market" and testing various levers for their effectiveness in slowing the decline of the motorcycle market or even better, reversing the trend. Currently I use data mostly from Germany, as that was relatively easy to come by but further data from another country, such as the UK, would be beneficial.
So much for the introduction, here goes the gist of the argument:
The average age of motorcyclists is increasing. The repercussions of this are manyfold. Older riders on the one hand ride less than younger ones and buy new motorcycles less frequently. On the other hand they have a higher disposable income and tend to buy more expensive / better equipped machinery. As the average age of motorcyclists rises they are seen as less of role models / relevant peers of younger people, so they do not incite those to becoming bikers themselves. And a lack of young bikers seems to be the noose around the industry's neck. The older bikers, in spite of medical advances will die out some day and there is very little out there to replace them. There are several reasons for that.
First of all motorcycles in the developed world are no longer primarily used as a means of transportation. As disposable income increased in the Western world, bikes have been supplanted by cars as primary means of private transport. It happened in the 20s in the USA and in the late 50s in most of Europe. For decades afterwards it was still accepted practice for youngsters to have a motorbike for transportation, as it was cheaper. Up until the late 70s / early 80s the numbers of motorcyclists taking a test were fair, large enough to replace the ones who have gone before them and flowed out of the system. This trend slowly stopped, though and now very few will consider passing the licence because they have an express transportation need.
The other use of a motorcycle, riding it for fun, as a leisure activity, primarily, is probably the main demand driver in most developed markets these days. But when one gets into that class, the competition is no longer other motorcycle manufacturers or car manufacturers but things like golfing, tennis, or whatever else it is people do for fun in their spare time. Spare time activities and their attractiveness often depend on other people doing them. Only the most commited will do something noone else does. For the most part it takes relevant peers for one to start doing something as a hobby. And there have to be a sufficient number of those. So far so wonderful, golfing took off like a bushfire, as did tennis decades before. With motorcycling it's different.
Here another limitation comes into play. The older one is when learning to ride, the more difficult it becomes objectively. In fact data shows that very few people older than 28 seriously attempt it, so few as to be insignificant. That again means that riders need to be captured young, nursed through the period where many won't be able to afford much to a period where they are old enough to be able to splash out on new motorbikes without jeopardising their family or other commitments.
Capturing young riders, though is not something the industry is particularly good at. In the decades post WW2 the motorcycle was at the leading edge of many youth movements. That, however stopped in the late 70s. The industry, instead of looking of how to get the new generation connected found what they thought was the goose laying golden eggs, older generations of bikers who haven't ridden for a longer time but were easily persuaded into returning into the active pool of motorcyclists. These usually took the more expensive machinery where margins were larger, many, having had their experiences a long time ago were not so choosy when it came to performance, a true have it all from the perspective of the industry. Unfortunately those old bikers will die out some day, as I said.
Getting back to the youth, the problem of the industry is that they kept projecting the biker image of old, The Wild Ones, Easy Rider kind of thing, lonely, rebellish, what have you. It was great for the older generation, who associated those things with a motorbike and who valued them equally. But totally missing the needs and desires of the younger generations following. What worked with the old ones backfired with the younger ones. In addition the marketing budgets of the whole industry are tiny. For Germany all manufacturers together spend 19 millin Euros on marketing annually, less than any serious car manufacturer would spend alone. This means that advertising is focused mainly on motorcycle publications. This in turn means that it's there for capturing market share, not expanding the market, as you'll read motorcycle journals only if you've had a previous interest already.
There is another backlash against the motorcycle. As so long the wild and rebellious image has been groomed, many people came to believe that motorcycles are inherently bad. Many parents who were bikers themselves expressly prohibited bikes to their kids and kids these days being different than their parents accepted those limitations.
In additions motorcycles are seen as dangerous and environmentally unsound. Such perceptions do not need to be fact driven, they damage the product nonetheless.
And the industry? Most of them are looking primarily or exclusively at the upper end of the market - the stuff that sells for a lot of money, where the margins are fat. Fair enough but they simply exacerbate the problem of a very low new uptake of riding. At some point the industry will notice but then even if they succeed in persuading a fair percentage of the youth still potentially interested (around 25% in Germany), it will take several decades of massive investment to get the market back to self sustaining levels.
I guess the post is long enough as it is, so I'll leave it at that. From feedback I can then see, which feedback mechanisms it makes most sense to describe and in what order.
All feedback is very welcome and while I cannot promise to acknowledge every single one of you in the dissertation, as a group you will surely be mentioned
I would be very much interested in all your views here.
After preliminary research I plan constructing a simulation model of the "market" and testing various levers for their effectiveness in slowing the decline of the motorcycle market or even better, reversing the trend. Currently I use data mostly from Germany, as that was relatively easy to come by but further data from another country, such as the UK, would be beneficial.
So much for the introduction, here goes the gist of the argument: The average age of motorcyclists is increasing. The repercussions of this are manyfold. Older riders on the one hand ride less than younger ones and buy new motorcycles less frequently. On the other hand they have a higher disposable income and tend to buy more expensive / better equipped machinery. As the average age of motorcyclists rises they are seen as less of role models / relevant peers of younger people, so they do not incite those to becoming bikers themselves. And a lack of young bikers seems to be the noose around the industry's neck. The older bikers, in spite of medical advances will die out some day and there is very little out there to replace them. There are several reasons for that.
First of all motorcycles in the developed world are no longer primarily used as a means of transportation. As disposable income increased in the Western world, bikes have been supplanted by cars as primary means of private transport. It happened in the 20s in the USA and in the late 50s in most of Europe. For decades afterwards it was still accepted practice for youngsters to have a motorbike for transportation, as it was cheaper. Up until the late 70s / early 80s the numbers of motorcyclists taking a test were fair, large enough to replace the ones who have gone before them and flowed out of the system. This trend slowly stopped, though and now very few will consider passing the licence because they have an express transportation need.
The other use of a motorcycle, riding it for fun, as a leisure activity, primarily, is probably the main demand driver in most developed markets these days. But when one gets into that class, the competition is no longer other motorcycle manufacturers or car manufacturers but things like golfing, tennis, or whatever else it is people do for fun in their spare time. Spare time activities and their attractiveness often depend on other people doing them. Only the most commited will do something noone else does. For the most part it takes relevant peers for one to start doing something as a hobby. And there have to be a sufficient number of those. So far so wonderful, golfing took off like a bushfire, as did tennis decades before. With motorcycling it's different.
Here another limitation comes into play. The older one is when learning to ride, the more difficult it becomes objectively. In fact data shows that very few people older than 28 seriously attempt it, so few as to be insignificant. That again means that riders need to be captured young, nursed through the period where many won't be able to afford much to a period where they are old enough to be able to splash out on new motorbikes without jeopardising their family or other commitments.
Capturing young riders, though is not something the industry is particularly good at. In the decades post WW2 the motorcycle was at the leading edge of many youth movements. That, however stopped in the late 70s. The industry, instead of looking of how to get the new generation connected found what they thought was the goose laying golden eggs, older generations of bikers who haven't ridden for a longer time but were easily persuaded into returning into the active pool of motorcyclists. These usually took the more expensive machinery where margins were larger, many, having had their experiences a long time ago were not so choosy when it came to performance, a true have it all from the perspective of the industry. Unfortunately those old bikers will die out some day, as I said.
Getting back to the youth, the problem of the industry is that they kept projecting the biker image of old, The Wild Ones, Easy Rider kind of thing, lonely, rebellish, what have you. It was great for the older generation, who associated those things with a motorbike and who valued them equally. But totally missing the needs and desires of the younger generations following. What worked with the old ones backfired with the younger ones. In addition the marketing budgets of the whole industry are tiny. For Germany all manufacturers together spend 19 millin Euros on marketing annually, less than any serious car manufacturer would spend alone. This means that advertising is focused mainly on motorcycle publications. This in turn means that it's there for capturing market share, not expanding the market, as you'll read motorcycle journals only if you've had a previous interest already. There is another backlash against the motorcycle. As so long the wild and rebellious image has been groomed, many people came to believe that motorcycles are inherently bad. Many parents who were bikers themselves expressly prohibited bikes to their kids and kids these days being different than their parents accepted those limitations.
In additions motorcycles are seen as dangerous and environmentally unsound. Such perceptions do not need to be fact driven, they damage the product nonetheless.
And the industry? Most of them are looking primarily or exclusively at the upper end of the market - the stuff that sells for a lot of money, where the margins are fat. Fair enough but they simply exacerbate the problem of a very low new uptake of riding. At some point the industry will notice but then even if they succeed in persuading a fair percentage of the youth still potentially interested (around 25% in Germany), it will take several decades of massive investment to get the market back to self sustaining levels.
I guess the post is long enough as it is, so I'll leave it at that. From feedback I can then see, which feedback mechanisms it makes most sense to describe and in what order.
All feedback is very welcome and while I cannot promise to acknowledge every single one of you in the dissertation, as a group you will surely be mentioned
I think biking did take a surge of interest in the late 90`s where the prices of bikes fell ..ie..blades used to be around 9K then dropped to 6-7K for parallel imports.. which encouraged younger riders into making the jump from car to bike..At one point...People hadn`t quite maxed out credit facilities by then ..and it was getting more TV coverage...As for younger riders they don`t tend to climb the ladder like they used to starting from 125`s etc and going up ..Lots go DAS and buy a 600 or bigger...The General climate towards bikers is good but high speeds and silliness is no longer tolerated to the same extent..and although you are just putting the bike through it`s paces ..you are breaking speed limits all the time..Track days are ideal but expensive...which excludes some younger less affluent riders...IMO the interest rose sharply and doubled in the UK then has settled back a tad but is still much bigger than it was in say, the late 80`s..It remains more of a pleasure pursuit for me...
Edited by F.M on Thursday 24th August 17:51
I am a huge motorcycle enthusiast and I find this really fascinating. To give one person's perspective, which may or may not be representative of the biker experience:
Having owned a bunch of superbikes in my younger years, I recently sold off my Ducati 996 and Kawasaki ZX-9R. Now, approaching my forties, I am into bicycling. My main reasons were as follows:
- I can talk to other people on other bicycles--with mo'bikes, you needed to yell or get gear to do this (and it would still not do it very well).
- My license is not under threat when I am on a bicycle.
- Bicyles "seem" to be safer, even though we know they are not, really.
- I never had a serious injury or accident while motorcyling and considered my 15-year run to be long enough, no need to push my luck.
- In my later years, I did more and more track and leisure riding and felt more unsafe on the road.
- I happen to live in America and the general population's perception of motorcycling is very different from mine, and from the way bikes are regarded in the rest of the world.
- I just found myself using the bikes less, as I needed to have cellphone conversations on the way, carry more passengers or luggage than the bike could accommodate, and it took more time to gear up.
- I had to move cars out of the way, and that added to the hassle factor enough that I would only do it for longer rides, not for quick errands. I daresay this was a big reason for selling the bike, and with a different house/garage setup, I would still have at least one bike.
- I would love to have a bike again, and am contemplating a ZX-9R again, but realistically, the cost vs. time spent on it/pleasure and utility derived from it are no longer justifiable (although I might still do it).
- I am considering some of the alternative stuff, ie. the covered one by BMW, the electric one, etc.
I don't know why motorbikes are suffering this demise. They are nimble, fun, fast, and great fun. And they ooze technology and coolness, IMO. And riding them shows you have skill, coordination, understand mechanical things, principles of physics, etc. They also provide some of the biggest adrenaline rushes for the money.
You have provided some great insights. How can we reverse these trends? Here are some ideas, and I am fairly sure that most of them are being implemented to some extent. Are they not being effective? How valid is your data for other countries?
Average age increasing
- Parents preventing kids? We have to sell the parents on starting the kids off (advertising, appropriate products)
- Role models - change from Easy Rider to Schumacher-types. You say relevant peers are needed--does the bike world have any at all? And how can they make it into a social activity? Clubs? Bike-orientated events?
No longer primary means of transport
- We can't help this too much, although, for some functions, the bike is absolutely ideal and the car becomes a hindrance. For traffic congestion, the bike is ideal only because it is small and thin enough to fit into the spaces between cars. If traffic consisted primarily of motorbike-sized vehicles, then motorbikes would not be able to filter through (though the avg. speeds might be higher and there might be less congestion in the first place). So we should be careful what we wish for, here. Perhaps position the bike as a "smarter" choice in a car-mad world? With the right marketing message, I think the public can be persuaded that bikes are very useful, ie. police use, emergency services use, the taxi service in London, off-roading and patrolling areas with dirt bikes, delivery and messenger services, etc.
Need to capture riders when they are younger than 28.
- Cheaper bikes. Better marketing. Would love to see this - I see bikes getting more expensive all the time. And since they are leisure objects rather than necessities, this is really bad for sales. I wish the Chinese would make quality bikes for $2,000. That would increase the numbers!
- Younger people do have disposable income (gifts, meagre earnings, etc.)--it's just not as much as the older generation. If they are to be brought into the fold of motorcycling, it HAS to be affordable for them.
Industry focus on increasing market share rather than overall market size.
- Mo'bike companies need to spend more (on mktg and engg), and come up with creative uses/products.
Industry focus on upper end of market where margins are high
- It's going to take a change in thinking. And some smart visionaries. I don't know how or when or who, but surely there's a company/individual out there who can deliver quality at exponentially less prices and get his marketing mix right. Perhaps it will be some scooter mfr? I hope someone comes to the forefront before it's too late.
It's really sad, isn't it, that kids growing up on bicycles move on to cars and skip over the amazing world of motorcycling. I don't believe that they are more dangerous, given proper training and education/awareness. I have also read that transport technology advances move from aircraft to motorcycles and then to cars. We can't afford to lose this amazing machine and skill.
I would love to learn about the world of motorcycle marketing. I agree with you that they seem to just focus on specialised publications, which is really preaching to the choir. And that something needs to be done to reverse the declining sales and the increasing general perception that they are unsafe and "bad".
Having owned a bunch of superbikes in my younger years, I recently sold off my Ducati 996 and Kawasaki ZX-9R. Now, approaching my forties, I am into bicycling. My main reasons were as follows:
- I can talk to other people on other bicycles--with mo'bikes, you needed to yell or get gear to do this (and it would still not do it very well).
- My license is not under threat when I am on a bicycle.
- Bicyles "seem" to be safer, even though we know they are not, really.
- I never had a serious injury or accident while motorcyling and considered my 15-year run to be long enough, no need to push my luck.
- In my later years, I did more and more track and leisure riding and felt more unsafe on the road.
- I happen to live in America and the general population's perception of motorcycling is very different from mine, and from the way bikes are regarded in the rest of the world.
- I just found myself using the bikes less, as I needed to have cellphone conversations on the way, carry more passengers or luggage than the bike could accommodate, and it took more time to gear up.
- I had to move cars out of the way, and that added to the hassle factor enough that I would only do it for longer rides, not for quick errands. I daresay this was a big reason for selling the bike, and with a different house/garage setup, I would still have at least one bike.
- I would love to have a bike again, and am contemplating a ZX-9R again, but realistically, the cost vs. time spent on it/pleasure and utility derived from it are no longer justifiable (although I might still do it).
- I am considering some of the alternative stuff, ie. the covered one by BMW, the electric one, etc.
I don't know why motorbikes are suffering this demise. They are nimble, fun, fast, and great fun. And they ooze technology and coolness, IMO. And riding them shows you have skill, coordination, understand mechanical things, principles of physics, etc. They also provide some of the biggest adrenaline rushes for the money.
You have provided some great insights. How can we reverse these trends? Here are some ideas, and I am fairly sure that most of them are being implemented to some extent. Are they not being effective? How valid is your data for other countries?
Average age increasing
- Parents preventing kids? We have to sell the parents on starting the kids off (advertising, appropriate products)
- Role models - change from Easy Rider to Schumacher-types. You say relevant peers are needed--does the bike world have any at all? And how can they make it into a social activity? Clubs? Bike-orientated events?
No longer primary means of transport
- We can't help this too much, although, for some functions, the bike is absolutely ideal and the car becomes a hindrance. For traffic congestion, the bike is ideal only because it is small and thin enough to fit into the spaces between cars. If traffic consisted primarily of motorbike-sized vehicles, then motorbikes would not be able to filter through (though the avg. speeds might be higher and there might be less congestion in the first place). So we should be careful what we wish for, here. Perhaps position the bike as a "smarter" choice in a car-mad world? With the right marketing message, I think the public can be persuaded that bikes are very useful, ie. police use, emergency services use, the taxi service in London, off-roading and patrolling areas with dirt bikes, delivery and messenger services, etc.
Need to capture riders when they are younger than 28.
- Cheaper bikes. Better marketing. Would love to see this - I see bikes getting more expensive all the time. And since they are leisure objects rather than necessities, this is really bad for sales. I wish the Chinese would make quality bikes for $2,000. That would increase the numbers!
- Younger people do have disposable income (gifts, meagre earnings, etc.)--it's just not as much as the older generation. If they are to be brought into the fold of motorcycling, it HAS to be affordable for them.
Industry focus on increasing market share rather than overall market size.
- Mo'bike companies need to spend more (on mktg and engg), and come up with creative uses/products.
Industry focus on upper end of market where margins are high
- It's going to take a change in thinking. And some smart visionaries. I don't know how or when or who, but surely there's a company/individual out there who can deliver quality at exponentially less prices and get his marketing mix right. Perhaps it will be some scooter mfr? I hope someone comes to the forefront before it's too late.
It's really sad, isn't it, that kids growing up on bicycles move on to cars and skip over the amazing world of motorcycling. I don't believe that they are more dangerous, given proper training and education/awareness. I have also read that transport technology advances move from aircraft to motorcycles and then to cars. We can't afford to lose this amazing machine and skill.
I would love to learn about the world of motorcycle marketing. I agree with you that they seem to just focus on specialised publications, which is really preaching to the choir. And that something needs to be done to reverse the declining sales and the increasing general perception that they are unsafe and "bad".
Edited by orgasmicliving!! on Thursday 24th August 18:44
Maybe the market is shifting largely because of the easy availability of perfectly good cheap cars (cheap bikes which are any good are actually quite rare). The cost of entry into motorcycling, particularly with high insurance costs and the epic hoops you need to go through to get your full licence is all part of the barrier.
The 30 plus age groups seems to have more money now to devote to leisure motorcycling, rather than using it as a cheap way of getting to work. Plus, they've got their test ages ago, when it was easier and their insurance is now cheap(ish).
The 30 plus age groups seems to have more money now to devote to leisure motorcycling, rather than using it as a cheap way of getting to work. Plus, they've got their test ages ago, when it was easier and their insurance is now cheap(ish).
Biking will always be percieved as dangerous, wether this be as used on the road or as a sport on race tracks. You cannot get away from the fact that it is more dangerous mode of travel than all other popular forms. With the advent of many European Nations enjoying greater wealth decade on decade the motorbike struggles to compete with cheap small 'middle Asian' cars on price. Mum and Dad would sooner buy Son or Daughter a nice car it seems.
My thoughts are that motorcycle racing could play a much more significant role in the presentation of road biking and its benefits. Fashion concious young people have opted to buy into the scooter end of the market and you need only look at the upsurge of marketing of these bikes in fairly recent years to appreciate that the manufacturers are fully aware of thier target market. Presume that the manufacturer hopes to retain this market and see its customers move up to the bigger bikes. Go to a race meeting and see how many manufacturers take advantage of race enthusiasts attending?? Why do they not use the track (or part of) and get youngsters on bikes with taster sessions? OK it would take some effort with insurance.
My thoughts are that motorcycle racing could play a much more significant role in the presentation of road biking and its benefits. Fashion concious young people have opted to buy into the scooter end of the market and you need only look at the upsurge of marketing of these bikes in fairly recent years to appreciate that the manufacturers are fully aware of thier target market. Presume that the manufacturer hopes to retain this market and see its customers move up to the bigger bikes. Go to a race meeting and see how many manufacturers take advantage of race enthusiasts attending?? Why do they not use the track (or part of) and get youngsters on bikes with taster sessions? OK it would take some effort with insurance.
Motorcycling is more dangerous and as you say not neccessarily cheaper than a car.
I started riding in Italy where one can ride a bike (50cc) @ 14yrs with no test required but needs to be 18 to drive a car, this encourages many more bikers, even if only for 4 yrs, but then many get hooked.
Here in England one can ride a bike (50cc) @ 16 (but needs to pass a test) but then can drive a car @ 17, so there is much less incentive to ride a bike, add to that the weather is shite (and motorists are less bike 'aware') and you can see why less might choose to ride bikes.
That said, IMHO, the English do make a good breed of die-hard biker regardless, and probably in spite of the odds against it.
44yr old biker......
I started riding in Italy where one can ride a bike (50cc) @ 14yrs with no test required but needs to be 18 to drive a car, this encourages many more bikers, even if only for 4 yrs, but then many get hooked.
Here in England one can ride a bike (50cc) @ 16 (but needs to pass a test) but then can drive a car @ 17, so there is much less incentive to ride a bike, add to that the weather is shite (and motorists are less bike 'aware') and you can see why less might choose to ride bikes.
That said, IMHO, the English do make a good breed of die-hard biker regardless, and probably in spite of the odds against it.
44yr old biker......
Edited by catso on Thursday 24th August 23:37
Hmmm, I find it all quite interesting, and believe it's totally a perception issue. I turned to bikes at the tender age of 33 but had always loved the looks, the sounds, and most importantly the speed. However, I was put off for quite sometime by the safety issue, and the fact that as far as I was concerned, all bikers had beards, tattoos, and wanted to smash my face in just for looking a them...How wrong could I be??!!
I can't write my thoughts on why the age is rising, or why advertisers don't throw the cash at a bigger bike market, or why we may be a dying "breed", cause I just don't know why......but it's got to be one of the best things I've ever done!
Good OP though.
but had always loved the looks, the sounds, and most importantly the speed. However, I was put off for quite sometime by the safety issue, and the fact that as far as I was concerned, all bikers had beards, tattoos, and wanted to smash my face in just for looking a them...How wrong could I be??!! I can't write my thoughts on why the age is rising, or why advertisers don't throw the cash at a bigger bike market, or why we may be a dying "breed", cause I just don't know why......but it's got to be one of the best things I've ever done!
Good OP though.
My first post in Biker Banter, although i have been posting in the well supported TVR section for a while.
Interesting read! I think it is a perception thing - i, like Chilli have been put off bikes for a good while - by my dad for one, who has always ridden bikes but put me off when i first past my test. He wanted me to get some driving experience. So i have, with many things from a Mini to 2 seater sports, and the latest venture a TVR Cerbera.
So, bought the Cerbera, but now want more adrenalin, so the bike is the next step with a bonus that it is a fraction of the cost. Im am 27, rareing to go - its always something i have wanted to do and i havent really been stopped by income - just been into cars, i suppose because of the status quo and the safety factor.
It certainly wont be a primary commuter, but for fun on the commute as such. I will retain the trusty Fiesta TDI!
I didnt think the Biker community was on the decline...is there any numbers to back up the statement?
Interesting read! I think it is a perception thing - i, like Chilli have been put off bikes for a good while - by my dad for one, who has always ridden bikes but put me off when i first past my test. He wanted me to get some driving experience. So i have, with many things from a Mini to 2 seater sports, and the latest venture a TVR Cerbera.
So, bought the Cerbera, but now want more adrenalin, so the bike is the next step with a bonus that it is a fraction of the cost. Im am 27, rareing to go - its always something i have wanted to do and i havent really been stopped by income - just been into cars, i suppose because of the status quo and the safety factor.
It certainly wont be a primary commuter, but for fun on the commute as such. I will retain the trusty Fiesta TDI!
I didnt think the Biker community was on the decline...is there any numbers to back up the statement?
I do not have numbers for the UK but supposedly the aging trend, which in time will lead to a decline in size inevitably, is Europe-wide and to an extent exists in the US as well. The average age of Harley riders in the last 10 years increased by 8 years, which means a very small inflow of new riders. You might claim that Harley is an extreme case but still, it's not the age as such that is necessarily the main worry, it is the increase, which is worrying.
Clearly some countries have different dynamics. The model will capture all relevant variables (climate / weather, as you have identified, is an important one, as is congestion) and can then be run with data from various countries.
Italy, for instance, is an exception to the general rule. Benign weather (for biking), much better suitability of the machines for transport (partially as a result of weather, partially for congestion reasons, partially from what you have explained (starting riding at 14 and getting hooked) and partially for cultural reasons. Two things here, motorsport and Valentino Rossi! Motorsport and the reaction of Italian parents is, this is fun, make your father proud... Simplified, of course Valentino Rossi is a legend in Italy, in all walks of life. He is the youthful character, that today's youth can identify with and he's used in all kinds of advertising in Italy (far beyond only motorcycle adds), so he's very widely recognisable.
Another thing, allowing youngsters to start riding at 14 is very beneficial, they learn control at an age when it's a lot easier for them and are then able to ride properly when they get to larger machinery (hopefully). According to some research the optimal age to start is 6, not 16. The ones who do (and can), make for very skilled and safe riders.
As for prevalence in various countries in Europe, Greece is highest, with around 89 or so bikes per 1000 inhabitants (the figures are off the top of my head now, as I do not have the data here), with Czech Republic following at 73, Italy at 70 and Switzerland at 69 or so. Switzerland might not have the weather but they have two other factors - it's very easy to get a licence and the disposable income is higher than in most other European countries.
Obtaining a licence is one of the main obstacles to spreading the field. It became more difficult / costly and many teenagers (and their parents) feel that money is better spent in obtaining a car driving licence, since the car will be needed for sure, while the motorbike is a nice to have at most (or the spawn of the devil, for more and more)
Making it easy to obtain a licence by lowering requirements would backfire fairly quickly, though. It would build on the image of biking not being safe, thereby overcompensating for any positive effects. Making it cheaper and available at a younger age, though, are both sensible propositions. Countries where biking is gaining in popularity currently, such as pretty much all of Scandinavia (from a low starting point) have another factor - cost. The high taxes on motor vehicles make cars very expensive, so for young people a motorbike makes sense as in it being affordable, while a car is not.
Bikes being made for youth, cheap cheerful, fun? Very few manufacturers cater to that market. Sachs in Germany is trying now with their MadAss range but they an outsider, really, as far as numbers go. Most manufacturers simply claim it cannot be profitable to produce good bikes in the lower price classes. So many of the "youth focused" bikes end up way to expensive for the target market.
Clearly some countries have different dynamics. The model will capture all relevant variables (climate / weather, as you have identified, is an important one, as is congestion) and can then be run with data from various countries.
Italy, for instance, is an exception to the general rule. Benign weather (for biking), much better suitability of the machines for transport (partially as a result of weather, partially for congestion reasons, partially from what you have explained (starting riding at 14 and getting hooked) and partially for cultural reasons. Two things here, motorsport and Valentino Rossi! Motorsport and the reaction of Italian parents is, this is fun, make your father proud...
Simplified, of course Valentino Rossi is a legend in Italy, in all walks of life. He is the youthful character, that today's youth can identify with and he's used in all kinds of advertising in Italy (far beyond only motorcycle adds), so he's very widely recognisable. Another thing, allowing youngsters to start riding at 14 is very beneficial, they learn control at an age when it's a lot easier for them and are then able to ride properly when they get to larger machinery (hopefully). According to some research the optimal age to start is 6, not 16. The ones who do (and can), make for very skilled and safe riders.
As for prevalence in various countries in Europe, Greece is highest, with around 89 or so bikes per 1000 inhabitants (the figures are off the top of my head now, as I do not have the data here), with Czech Republic following at 73, Italy at 70 and Switzerland at 69 or so. Switzerland might not have the weather but they have two other factors - it's very easy to get a licence and the disposable income is higher than in most other European countries.
Obtaining a licence is one of the main obstacles to spreading the field. It became more difficult / costly and many teenagers (and their parents) feel that money is better spent in obtaining a car driving licence, since the car will be needed for sure, while the motorbike is a nice to have at most (or the spawn of the devil, for more and more)
Making it easy to obtain a licence by lowering requirements would backfire fairly quickly, though. It would build on the image of biking not being safe, thereby overcompensating for any positive effects.
Making it cheaper and available at a younger age, though, are both sensible propositions. Countries where biking is gaining in popularity currently, such as pretty much all of Scandinavia (from a low starting point) have another factor - cost. The high taxes on motor vehicles make cars very expensive, so for young people a motorbike makes sense as in it being affordable, while a car is not. Bikes being made for youth, cheap cheerful, fun? Very few manufacturers cater to that market. Sachs in Germany is trying now with their MadAss range but they an outsider, really, as far as numbers go. Most manufacturers simply claim it cannot be profitable to produce good bikes in the lower price classes. So many of the "youth focused" bikes end up way to expensive for the target market.
I don't think bikes are dying out. I also don't really agree that bikers have a hells angel type reputation anymore. The "scary" people now are the terrorists. I think that bikes in the UK have more of an extreme sport type image. I am also not sure they are seen as enviromentally unfriendly by the general population.
I am 31 and I have been riding on the road for 3 years. I grew up in Ireland and when I was 16 I wanted to get a motorbike. My dad (who rode bikes in his youth) wouldn't allow it. Probably because he saw I was not exactly a safe, steady youth. Looking back now I probably would of lasted a year at most riding a bike in Ireland.
Between 17 and 28 I drove cars, so much it became my profession. Pretty much without incident. I came back to bikes when I moved from Germany to the UK. The biking scene is fun here, bikers have maybe a little bit more of the "live the day" attitude than most. Congestion makes owning a fast car frustrating. I like the fact that the risks I take on a motorbike can generally not be considered mindless, because I usually have the most to lose. The bikers I know are not psychos, but speed limits mean nothing to them. They are observant and responsible. Though the powers that be might not agree!
Anyway, wouldn't life be boring if it was perfectly safe?
Shane
I am 31 and I have been riding on the road for 3 years. I grew up in Ireland and when I was 16 I wanted to get a motorbike. My dad (who rode bikes in his youth) wouldn't allow it. Probably because he saw I was not exactly a safe, steady youth. Looking back now I probably would of lasted a year at most riding a bike in Ireland.
Between 17 and 28 I drove cars, so much it became my profession. Pretty much without incident. I came back to bikes when I moved from Germany to the UK. The biking scene is fun here, bikers have maybe a little bit more of the "live the day" attitude than most. Congestion makes owning a fast car frustrating. I like the fact that the risks I take on a motorbike can generally not be considered mindless, because I usually have the most to lose. The bikers I know are not psychos, but speed limits mean nothing to them. They are observant and responsible. Though the powers that be might not agree!
Anyway, wouldn't life be boring if it was perfectly safe?
Shane
The problem is exactly that the number of bikers is not falling just yet. But when it does start falling it will be a decline almost impossible to arrest for three or four decades. The time delays are huge and it is easy to see why it is so difficult for the industry to do anything about it now, while there is still time.
As for the image of bikers, you, as one, do not have a bad image of them, since you are in contact with them and know better. But the majority of the population does not, unfortunately. At every conference I presented various papers on the topic the first question was along the lines - but are they not associated to criminal activities? Silly, I know but the image many carry in their heads nevertheless.
Actually the UK has one of the lower densities of motorcycles in Europe, I think under 20 per 1000 inhabitants. Germany would do something like 45, which made it the largest market in Europe until 2003 I think, when Italy overtook it.
As for the image of bikers, you, as one, do not have a bad image of them, since you are in contact with them and know better. But the majority of the population does not, unfortunately. At every conference I presented various papers on the topic the first question was along the lines - but are they not associated to criminal activities? Silly, I know but the image many carry in their heads nevertheless.
Actually the UK has one of the lower densities of motorcycles in Europe, I think under 20 per 1000 inhabitants. Germany would do something like 45, which made it the largest market in Europe until 2003 I think, when Italy overtook it.
I only recently got into biking and one of the problems I found was actually finding a 125 bike at all. Most of the dealers I spoke to were all agreed that there really aren't that many around.
I also wonder what effect the cheap Chinese imports will have long term. I could have bought a brand new Hyosung or similar for less than I spent on my three year old Aprilia. But when the dealer himself was telling me that if I was doing more than a few miles he wouldn't recommend it because the bikes can't stand up to it I was even less inclined to go that way. If young potential life long bikers buy a brand new bike that dies on them and is worthless in 6 months time, how many of them will persevere compared to how many will just buy a cheap car?
I also wonder what effect the cheap Chinese imports will have long term. I could have bought a brand new Hyosung or similar for less than I spent on my three year old Aprilia. But when the dealer himself was telling me that if I was doing more than a few miles he wouldn't recommend it because the bikes can't stand up to it I was even less inclined to go that way. If young potential life long bikers buy a brand new bike that dies on them and is worthless in 6 months time, how many of them will persevere compared to how many will just buy a cheap car?
Perhaps the motorcycle industry should look at converting scooter riders usually in the 16-18yr old category into 'motorcycle riders' although I accept this could be hard to do as the test is getting more complicated (categories of test can cause confusion)and a car may become a more socially useful and acceptable means of transport.
I'm guessing that 5-10 years ago sales of scooters were nothing compared to today and more people on scooters can only help spur interest in moving onto larger machinery.
I'm guessing that 5-10 years ago sales of scooters were nothing compared to today and more people on scooters can only help spur interest in moving onto larger machinery.
The Rossi effect is a factor - think how many squash clubs we used to have in the UK in the 70s when Jonah Barrington was number 1... Now it's all tennis. A British Moto GP champ with the charisma of Rossi would be a big help.
The weather is someting you touched on earlier, and I think this is a bigger factor than many give credit for. I ride year round and am already dreading the 8 long months of winter looming.
Our lives are increasingly comfortable and push-button (for want of a better word). Basic cars have air-con, CD players, electric windows etc - we are becoming ever more mollycoddled to the extent that HSE will forbid activities we used to undertake without a second glance a few years ago.
Against this drive to sanitise life to such an extent that you don't even have to think for yourself anymore (the rise of celebrity culture etc - I agree with what X thinks - look at the success of BMW off the back of Long Way Round), the decision to sit on a bike in the pouring rain in the UK looks increaingly kooky.
Of course, I would always argue that I would rather take 10mins getting home and get a bit cold and wet than sit in a car for an hour, but I understand that many wouldn't. It's a trade off. When you start to couple in the danger element of being on a bike, social stigma (poor man's fun) etc it all adds up.
The weather is someting you touched on earlier, and I think this is a bigger factor than many give credit for. I ride year round and am already dreading the 8 long months of winter looming.
Our lives are increasingly comfortable and push-button (for want of a better word). Basic cars have air-con, CD players, electric windows etc - we are becoming ever more mollycoddled to the extent that HSE will forbid activities we used to undertake without a second glance a few years ago.
Against this drive to sanitise life to such an extent that you don't even have to think for yourself anymore (the rise of celebrity culture etc - I agree with what X thinks - look at the success of BMW off the back of Long Way Round), the decision to sit on a bike in the pouring rain in the UK looks increaingly kooky.
Of course, I would always argue that I would rather take 10mins getting home and get a bit cold and wet than sit in a car for an hour, but I understand that many wouldn't. It's a trade off. When you start to couple in the danger element of being on a bike, social stigma (poor man's fun) etc it all adds up.
Don't know if it works the same way in the UK but the latest data I could coax out of Eurostat on Germany on safety was rather surprising. As a group motorcyclists have around 3 times as many deaths per bike as car drivers. On the other hand the deaths both in the up to 50cc and 125-500 categories were lower than for car drivers. The risky categories, accounting for the vast majority of all fatalities were the 125 and above 750 classes.
When it comes to weather the variables I have in right now are precipitation, number of sunny days and severity of winter (basically temperatures and snowfall primarily). Anything else you suggest I add?
When it comes to weather the variables I have in right now are precipitation, number of sunny days and severity of winter (basically temperatures and snowfall primarily). Anything else you suggest I add?
rodbargee said:
KM2 said:
environmentally unsound.
Dont mean to be trite ...but by who?
Edited by rodbargee on Saturday 26th August 20:18
Not quite sure what you mean? In case the motorcycles are used for fun, they are a carbon dioxide emitting way of spending your time. Environmentalists do not like that. On the other hand motorcycles are not liked because of noise and several other issues (actually the UN is thinking of noise regulations at the moment, to be implemented all over the place)...
The weather.
As the cattle population increases the effect on the climate in the form of global warming has made the weather wetter. Motorcycles are particularly affected by the inclement weather owing to the situation where god, in the form of Triumph, forgot to provide them with a folding roof.
It's pi55ing down up here on Skye..........
As the cattle population increases the effect on the climate in the form of global warming has made the weather wetter. Motorcycles are particularly affected by the inclement weather owing to the situation where god, in the form of Triumph, forgot to provide them with a folding roof.
It's pi55ing down up here on Skye..........
skyedriver said:
The weather.
As the cattle population increases the effect on the climate in the form of global warming has made the weather wetter. Motorcycles are particularly affected by the inclement weather owing to the situation where god, in the form of Triumph, forgot to provide them with a folding roof.
It's pi55ing down up here on Skye..........
As the cattle population increases the effect on the climate in the form of global warming has made the weather wetter. Motorcycles are particularly affected by the inclement weather owing to the situation where god, in the form of Triumph, forgot to provide them with a folding roof.
It's pi55ing down up here on Skye..........
:lol
Actually great bovines are a major global warming factor, not sure what percentage they account for in Europe. IIRC killing all cows in Australia would keep them under Kyoto limits for decades to come, even if their motor vehicle fleet kept on increasing and those got no greener
Gassing Station | Biker Banter | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff