RS Audi's.....Crazy residuals. Stick or twist.
Discussion
We're all aware of the 'inflated' used car prices due to the shortage of new cars as a result of semiconductor supply as well as glass supply issues.
My question is how long will this continue ?
My predicament is, I have a 2018 RS3 with 23k miles, the car is as perfect as a car of the age can be, unmolested, unmodified etc. I've been offered £38.250 by two separate Audi main dealers this week which lets be honest is bonkers. I don't have the time nor patience to advertise it privately and host a never ending procession of idiots wanting test drives and making silly offers.
So, do I stick or twist ? There's a new model on the horizon, subject to the above parts issues, it's something of a gamble either way, anybody else in the same situation ?
My question is how long will this continue ?
My predicament is, I have a 2018 RS3 with 23k miles, the car is as perfect as a car of the age can be, unmolested, unmodified etc. I've been offered £38.250 by two separate Audi main dealers this week which lets be honest is bonkers. I don't have the time nor patience to advertise it privately and host a never ending procession of idiots wanting test drives and making silly offers.
So, do I stick or twist ? There's a new model on the horizon, subject to the above parts issues, it's something of a gamble either way, anybody else in the same situation ?
I've been mulling it over myself, I have a high spec RS6 that is coming up to 4 years old and as such will need warranty extending plus the usual MOT, oil service etc. I've owned it for almost two years now and had a guideline offer from motorway that is barely 11% lower than what I paid for it back in Sept 2019, I expect in reality that figure will be chipped down a little but even so feels like a good opportunity to pocket around £15k and move into something newer (and more sensible) for a similar monthly figure.
I know that RS models have historically performed better than M and AMG counterparts but I do wonder if this is the start of a more long term trend or if a correction is just around the corner once the full impact of the COVID crisis hits the economy?
I know that RS models have historically performed better than M and AMG counterparts but I do wonder if this is the start of a more long term trend or if a correction is just around the corner once the full impact of the COVID crisis hits the economy?
From the coalface (i.e. I buy and sell fast Audis for a living)
There are multiple reasons supply of cars got bad. There are multiple reasons demand grew so much. The knock on is that that prices rose sharply over the last year. Honestly over the last few months there are cars I've bought one week thinking I'd overpaid, then a week later think "that was cheap". It's hard to keep up.
Can they rise a lot more? I'm not sure, but it wouldn't surprise me. There are people who don't like the latest round of emissions updates in the very newest models. There are more people than ever wanting something a little bit old school (i.e. wanting a B8 RS4, not a new one). There are more people thinking they want something wild to sit next to their boring electric company Peugeot.
Some of this won't go back. That demand for cars we can't get any more shows no sign of going away. The strongest price climbs have been in this sector and there are certainly plenty of performance car buyers around who don't like the latest little engine turbo stuff. As supply of new vehicles returns to something more normal we'll probably see things steady but the prices will 'depreciate' from an elevated position. They will not return to 2019 prices overnight.
Boring/normal cars may well be slightly different as electric/hybrid etc. becomes more normal. If you want a V8 you want a V8 and a Prius doesn't have one. The market for 3 year old £15k diesel Golfs will slowly become the market for 3 year old £15k electric things.
Now is probably a pretty good time to sell a desirable performance car (8V RS3 and C7 RS6 both falling into this category) and I don't think rises ongoing will be as sharp as we've seen to date. There does come a point where unless a car is an icon if they're the same price as a brand new one then someone will buy the brand new one. The market is buoyant and us buyers are very much trying to buy things.
The above opinion is inadmissible in court should the world become even more strange. After the last year nothing is a surprise anymore.
There are multiple reasons supply of cars got bad. There are multiple reasons demand grew so much. The knock on is that that prices rose sharply over the last year. Honestly over the last few months there are cars I've bought one week thinking I'd overpaid, then a week later think "that was cheap". It's hard to keep up.
Can they rise a lot more? I'm not sure, but it wouldn't surprise me. There are people who don't like the latest round of emissions updates in the very newest models. There are more people than ever wanting something a little bit old school (i.e. wanting a B8 RS4, not a new one). There are more people thinking they want something wild to sit next to their boring electric company Peugeot.
Some of this won't go back. That demand for cars we can't get any more shows no sign of going away. The strongest price climbs have been in this sector and there are certainly plenty of performance car buyers around who don't like the latest little engine turbo stuff. As supply of new vehicles returns to something more normal we'll probably see things steady but the prices will 'depreciate' from an elevated position. They will not return to 2019 prices overnight.
Boring/normal cars may well be slightly different as electric/hybrid etc. becomes more normal. If you want a V8 you want a V8 and a Prius doesn't have one. The market for 3 year old £15k diesel Golfs will slowly become the market for 3 year old £15k electric things.
Now is probably a pretty good time to sell a desirable performance car (8V RS3 and C7 RS6 both falling into this category) and I don't think rises ongoing will be as sharp as we've seen to date. There does come a point where unless a car is an icon if they're the same price as a brand new one then someone will buy the brand new one. The market is buoyant and us buyers are very much trying to buy things.
The above opinion is inadmissible in court should the world become even more strange. After the last year nothing is a surprise anymore.
It's simple supply and demand. They isn't much supply so prices go up and look how quickly it happened, coupled with a population that have suddenly found a few quid in their pocket and not much to spend it on.
Soon everything reopens, people start spending and they get back to living without a surplus. Manufacturers get their chips and start pumping out new models to everyone who wants them but with less buyers. Less demand and increased supply equals lower prices and it becomes a buyers market.
It might take 12 months, if might take 18. If you don't want to wait then pay the asking, if you don't want to pay, you take a different gamble dependant on your circumstances.
In my view they'll come down and I think it will be as quickly as they went up, but that could be 18 months away.
Personally I've been waiting for the new RS3, the old interior with that pop up dash hasn't aged well. I nearly ordered a vorsprung S3 on the back of it. Second hand cars are priced closer to new, it's a no brainer to wait.
All my opinion of course.
Soon everything reopens, people start spending and they get back to living without a surplus. Manufacturers get their chips and start pumping out new models to everyone who wants them but with less buyers. Less demand and increased supply equals lower prices and it becomes a buyers market.
It might take 12 months, if might take 18. If you don't want to wait then pay the asking, if you don't want to pay, you take a different gamble dependant on your circumstances.
In my view they'll come down and I think it will be as quickly as they went up, but that could be 18 months away.
Personally I've been waiting for the new RS3, the old interior with that pop up dash hasn't aged well. I nearly ordered a vorsprung S3 on the back of it. Second hand cars are priced closer to new, it's a no brainer to wait.
All my opinion of course.
OP - this might give you some idea how long this inflated market might last due to shortage of new cars
Ordered my Golf GTI Clubsport in June and it’s likely to be delivered March 2022. Same for rest of the VAG group and BMW have huge delays aswell. Some manufacturers just aren’t being honest with the timescales. Some VAG dealers have builds scheduled for April 2022 already!
The general consensus is the chips will be available nearer the end of the year, but that will take time to get the production lines moving again and deliveries to commence so the shortage will continue. New cars will still get snapped up immediately for a while after.
If I were to take a slightly educated guess - summer next year we might see things in the used car market settle down.
In regards to your RS3 - yes the new one is released but they won’t be arriving for a long long time. I’ve heard of dealers taking £1000 deposits for a build slot lol
Ordered my Golf GTI Clubsport in June and it’s likely to be delivered March 2022. Same for rest of the VAG group and BMW have huge delays aswell. Some manufacturers just aren’t being honest with the timescales. Some VAG dealers have builds scheduled for April 2022 already!
The general consensus is the chips will be available nearer the end of the year, but that will take time to get the production lines moving again and deliveries to commence so the shortage will continue. New cars will still get snapped up immediately for a while after.
If I were to take a slightly educated guess - summer next year we might see things in the used car market settle down.
In regards to your RS3 - yes the new one is released but they won’t be arriving for a long long time. I’ve heard of dealers taking £1000 deposits for a build slot lol
clarky92 said:
OP - this might give you some idea how long this inflated market might last due to shortage of new cars
Ordered my Golf GTI Clubsport in June and it’s likely to be delivered March 2022. Same for rest of the VAG group and BMW have huge delays aswell. Some manufacturers just aren’t being honest with the timescales. Some VAG dealers have builds scheduled for April 2022 already!
The general consensus is the chips will be available nearer the end of the year, but that will take time to get the production lines moving again and deliveries to commence so the shortage will continue. New cars will still get snapped up immediately for a while after.
If I were to take a slightly educated guess - summer next year we might see things in the used car market settle down.
In regards to your RS3 - yes the new one is released but they won’t be arriving for a long long time. I’ve heard of dealers taking £1000 deposits for a build slot lol
Ford and GM are building cars without chips and stockpiling them, so are others. GM are calling it "build shy", manufacturers always find a way to slash leadtimes in a crisis, they don't make money building nothing and extending time to market, everything will be being done to maximise available hours, cost and productivity. It surprises me how people think these factories just close up, sit back and say "oh well, let's go home and wait for these 50c chips". Ordered my Golf GTI Clubsport in June and it’s likely to be delivered March 2022. Same for rest of the VAG group and BMW have huge delays aswell. Some manufacturers just aren’t being honest with the timescales. Some VAG dealers have builds scheduled for April 2022 already!
The general consensus is the chips will be available nearer the end of the year, but that will take time to get the production lines moving again and deliveries to commence so the shortage will continue. New cars will still get snapped up immediately for a while after.
If I were to take a slightly educated guess - summer next year we might see things in the used car market settle down.
In regards to your RS3 - yes the new one is released but they won’t be arriving for a long long time. I’ve heard of dealers taking £1000 deposits for a build slot lol
jimPH said:
Ford and GM are building cars without chips and stockpiling them, so are others. GM are calling it "build shy", manufacturers always find a way to slash leadtimes in a crisis, they don't make money building nothing and extending time to market, everything will be being done to maximise available hours, cost and productivity. It surprises me how people think these factories just close up, sit back and say "oh well, let's go home and wait for these 50c chips".
Although not confirmed (yet) VAG appears to be doing the same, cars showing on the tracker as being in build for 5+ weeks, could be built up to a certain point and stored awaiting final parts. Bit this is going to go on for a while yetGassing Station | Audi, Seat, Skoda & VW | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff