In the 90s we all thought we could take over the world.
In the 90s we all thought we could take over the world.
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Furbo

Original Poster:

1,534 posts

48 months

Yesterday (22:09)
quotequote all
Rory Sutherland, the fat guy from Ogilvy's, popped up on my YT short feed saying (paraphrased): In the 90s we all thought we could take over the world. Now, everyone feels like they can only survive by doing the core business as efficiently as possible.

I feel the same way. I don't see unlimited possibilities anymore. I feel like our business needs to pull in its horns and just be efficient. Not try to be ambitious. Just survive.

For me, it is a gut feeling rather than a response to particular economic conditions.

Anyone else feel the same or the opposite and care to articulate why?


LuckyThirteen

821 posts

35 months

I agree.

It's a general lack of stability and optimism
I could probably write a lot.

However, working in the property market the last 2 decades....

Up to 2006, Boom
07-10 massive bust
5 years of stability
5 years declining market (after Brexit vote announced)
Then COVID. Shutdown, @9 weeks.
2020-22 Then Boom. 2 years of mania
2022-2025 bust once more. market dead

That above is tiring!

Add on to that being hammered by rising costs. Many many years of min wage going up way over inflation. While the dividends have been taxed higher against inflation.

Many many many other costs rising too.

Where I am, the decent business suck all this up, while many competitors can still ignore all sorts of operational, employment, Tax, and road transport rules. And never get caught.

Which, Ok, that's same as it ever was. But when it's against the current backdrop. It's demoralising.

Then, there's other things that would take the thread off topic. However they remain just as broken now as thirty years ago.

Furbo

Original Poster:

1,534 posts

48 months

LuckyThirteen said:
I agree.

It's a general lack of stability and optimism
I could probably write a lot.

However, working in the property market the last 2 decades....

Up to 2006, Boom
07-10 massive bust
5 years of stability
5 years declining market (after Brexit vote announced)
Then COVID. Shutdown, @9 weeks.
2020-22 Then Boom. 2 years of mania
2022-2025 bust once more. market dead

That above is tiring!

Add on to that being hammered by rising costs. Many many years of min wage going up way over inflation. While the dividends have been taxed higher against inflation.

Many many many other costs rising too.

Where I am, the decent business suck all this up, while many competitors can still ignore all sorts of operational, employment, Tax, and road transport rules. And never get caught.

Which, Ok, that's same as it ever was. But when it's against the current backdrop. It's demoralising.

Then, there's other things that would take the thread off topic. However they remain just as broken now as thirty years ago.
What do you do in the property market?

Eric Mc

123,986 posts

281 months

It was called "arrogance" and has now been succeeded by the (totally predictable) "hubris".

rival38

505 posts

161 months

Decline in disposable household income for the majority has been brutal over the last 24 months.
Inflation & taxation hitting most with some disposable very hard.

Most businesses are trying to preserve as much demand as they can. Invariably this means accepting
that a lower profit margin is the ‘new normal’. Being hit by price rises for non discretionary business items
that are way over inflation is exhausting and demoralising. Insurance / payrol / rent / transport etc are all
being squeezed up relentlessly. While as already pointed out - taxation is too, so if you do make some
money, you keep less now, to pay your own household bills.

Ultimately a low / thin profit margin creates fragility, in individual businesses and in the ecconomy as a whole.
Rory Southerland is right - many are hunkered down, sensing ‘this feels precarious’ - because it is!

Unless a business has lots of HMG contracts (not widely regarded as a price sensitive customer) or is a
suplier of a genuine essential (like insurance) then it will inevitably be feeling as Rory Southerland describes.

In a nutshell - we have had a lot of demand destruction and nobody can see a reversal of that trend.

z4RRSchris

11,997 posts

195 months

Furbo said:
What do you do in the property market?
i work in property and echo the above.

costs have gone up 40%+ and values are down. the equation doesn't work anymore - hence why no one is building.