USD Payment
Author
Discussion

Exigeowner

Original Poster:

873 posts

231 months

Friday 17th August 2007
quotequote all
I need to pay one of my suppliers approx 100,000 USD.

The rate has gone done from about 2.2 to 1.98 in the last week, I probably do not need to pay it for about another 3 weeks.

Does anybody have any feeling of what the USD might do, would it be wise to buy the dollar rate now and hold them until i need to make the payment or is it likely to edge back up in my favour over the next few weeks.

steve.c

12,514 posts

239 months

Friday 17th August 2007
quotequote all
I think interest rates have just been dropped in the states so fingers crossed the exchange rate should rise again!?

Deva Link

26,934 posts

275 months

Friday 17th August 2007
quotequote all
The Fed did cut the rate at which it lends money to banks from 6.25% to 5.75% but the main US interest rates were unchanged again this month (for the 13th successive month) at 5.25%. If they did go down that would tend to weaken the dollar (assuming UK/Euro rates didn't go down too) ie take it back over $2 to the £1.
It hasn't been 2.2. 2.02 I think you mean.

Who knows what's going to happen, but there's nothing to indicate it will change significantly in short / medium term.

Edited by Deva Link on Friday 17th August 22:30

arfur

4,016 posts

244 months

Monday 20th August 2007
quotequote all
Buy half now and the other half in 3 weeks ...

Reduces the loss if there is one either way

Oh ... and use HiFX, dont use a bank !

2something

2,145 posts

238 months

Monday 20th August 2007
quotequote all
half and half is not a bad idea as long as your transaction costs aren't too high.

very hard to predict GBP/USD at the moment, it came down hard mainly on the back of GBP/JPY carry trade puking so it's really anyones guess over the next couple of weeks.

2.065 was very roughly the recent high.


NorthernBoy

12,642 posts

287 months

Monday 20th August 2007
quotequote all
I don't think that you should base your currency hedges on what people on a car site "feel" about the future movement of rates.

If you did not have this payment, woudl you be speculating on rate movements?

If not, then hedge it now, as you are exposing you business to unnecessary risk.

MHT223

198 posts

238 months

Monday 20th August 2007
quotequote all
arfur said:
Buy half now and the other half in 3 weeks ...

Reduces the loss if there is one either way

Oh ... and use HiFX, dont use a bank !
One of my best mates is a dealer for HiFX, if you want his details I'll PM them to you