Year end FTSE 100 predictions please !
Poll: Year end FTSE 100 predictions please !
Total Members Polled: 91
Discussion
I think finally the penny is starting to drop, things are not going to get better soon 4500-5000 for me.
Rates up to 5.25 - 5.50 and inflation higher than current projection as the population decreases taking out any spare capacity from the economy (therefore GDP per capita growth staying higher than expected).
1)The tap of non-EU immigration has been completely turned off since January (200,000 +)
2)Poles are in reverse (200,000 +)
3)Net British emmigration (150,000 +)
population could drop by over 500,000 this year.
Rates up to 5.25 - 5.50 and inflation higher than current projection as the population decreases taking out any spare capacity from the economy (therefore GDP per capita growth staying higher than expected).
1)The tap of non-EU immigration has been completely turned off since January (200,000 +)
2)Poles are in reverse (200,000 +)
3)Net British emmigration (150,000 +)
population could drop by over 500,000 this year.
End the year very near 6000.
Only 6/7 stocks actually count in the FTSE, all the rest are cannon fodder.
Those stocks are made up of banks, pharmas, oil and a telco.
Thin summer trading will lead to a Sept rally, which in turn will then lead to the traditional Oct jitters and sell off before climbing again at the end of the year.
Banks will underpin this climb all the way.
Oils, will possibly lose a little ground as oil prices pull right back but I think they will end up climbing nonetheless as fund money will start to flow in regardless.
Pharmas will remain relatively defensive but also gain from falling oil.
Telco, well that's VOD. That'll rise and fall with sentiment, so be rising by the end of the year.
Only 6/7 stocks actually count in the FTSE, all the rest are cannon fodder.
Those stocks are made up of banks, pharmas, oil and a telco.
Thin summer trading will lead to a Sept rally, which in turn will then lead to the traditional Oct jitters and sell off before climbing again at the end of the year.
Banks will underpin this climb all the way.
Oils, will possibly lose a little ground as oil prices pull right back but I think they will end up climbing nonetheless as fund money will start to flow in regardless.
Pharmas will remain relatively defensive but also gain from falling oil.
Telco, well that's VOD. That'll rise and fall with sentiment, so be rising by the end of the year.
Vixpy1 said:
I think its going to bounce around the current level for a while.
Tend to agree that it's probably the most likely scenario (IMHO)longs got smacked around a bit
shorts got smacked around a bit
time for those long vol because they want to hold their positions, to get smacked around a bit
once most types of positions have been smacked around a bit, we'll get a new direction (IMHO odds on upwards but only just over 50% odds)
Hmm all of a sudden I seem to have strayed into Max Mosley territory ...
haworthlloyd1 said:
quite a confident year end horse apple. you seem to know what you are talking about but are you not worried things are going to keep getting worse for the next few years or do you think all the bad news is priced in. we only need another bank/house builder going bust and things will deteriorate further.
Things will definately keep getting worse, but an equity index number isn't a suitable indicator of this. Equity markets very often rise when all around is going solwly to crap
Plus, the data is regularly manipulated to evolve the constituents to suit the conditions.Basically, look at it this way, the equities which are likely to go to zero in a downturn are things like retailers and housebuilders. Neither of which have any great impact on the FTSE index, compared to Oil, Banking, Pharmas and Telcos.
Also, people tend to forget that the constituents get reshuffled, so in a long downturn you will see the retailers et al being kicked out and the best performing 250 stocks which replace them will be the defensives, sin stocks or better run companies. Once they are in they will form a stronger underpinning to the index and add upside.
If we were talking about the 250 or a small cap index then I would say that the only bottom to those is at zero
But even then in tough conditions there will be companies and individuals who excel and will support the index, but some of those will migrate upwards to the bigger indices.LittleBro said:
Sillybilly said:
3579
Looking like a strong prediction at present!In light of this past couple of weeks, any renewed thoughts?
I think a shade under 4000.
).I'm also happy with my answers for oil and for cable which you'll also note were rather different to anyone else's and kind of in the direction we're going. My dow forecast I'll have to think about (iirc it was just over ten thousand) but we'll see where that goes.
Of course if you want a completely 100% accurate prediction then you should ask Mystic on the other thread.
Edited by Somewhatfoolish on Thursday 16th October 00:58
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