S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?

[loafer123]

732NM said:

I've a mix to cover what I might need in the next few years and long term, some cash, some low risk, some higher risk. Probably 15% cash currently. I was overweight US tech at the start of the year via a none tech stock investment, so changed that to lower risk lower growth, it's easy to think you're in a diversified fund as that was it's makeup years ago, lots are now tech heavy. I put some of that into mining company stocks, which have been crap for a decade, but should do better in the next few years as they were built on low gold valuations.

Best thing I did was reassess my pension funds 10 years ago, they were in too much low risk for the time I had left.

The big mistake many make is give an optimistic retirement age when they take out the pension plan when sat with the sales bod signing you up. If you say you want to retire at 50 (now 57), but in reality won't till 65 (now 67), managed funds will put you into low risk far too early and your returns will be dogst.

Good advice.

The tech exposure point is well made - I had to spend a morning digging into fund exposures to work out my actual exposure, and I am now deliberately weighted more sensibly.

My IM suggested an equal weighted, rather than index weighted, US fund for exposure to there, for example.

[Lincolnshire]

ooid said:

Speaking of tech, highly concentrated XAIX ( A.I. & Big Data ETF) has made some serious gains since inception.

2020: 33.3%
2021: 25.2%
2022: -26.5%
2023: 58%
2024: 29%
YTD: 16.2%

These are definitely very good numbers, but the legal and general global technology index with a bigger spread, and even my beloved legal and general global 100 both have a better total cumulative performance over the same period without quite as big a dip (and less for slightly less risk) in 2022!

But undoubtedly great performance nevertheless !

[ooid]

Lincolnshire said:

These are definitely very good numbers, but the legal and general global technology index with a bigger spread, and even my beloved legal and general global 100 both have a better total cumulative performance over the same period without quite as big a dip (and less for slightly less risk) in 2022!

But undoubtedly great performance nevertheless !

Nope, not really. If I'm looking at "Legal & General global 100 Index Trust I Acc", the cumulative performance is 137.2%, whereas XAIX has 190.5% for the same period. (Just calculate what I posted there)

[130R]

US equity (accumulation) index fund invested 20K at the start of March and 20K at the start of April - hit 50K yesterday. It's heavily influenced by GBP/USD rate though which has dropped in the last month closer to what it was back then.

[Lincolnshire]

ooid said:

Nope, not really. If I'm looking at "Legal & General global 100 Index Trust I Acc", the cumulative performance is 137.2%, whereas XAIX has 190.5% for the same period. (Just calculate what I posted there)

Well you might be right but all I ve done is added up the numbers you typed for XAIX. Cumulative for the total (the sum of the years):

33.3 plus 25.2 minus 26.5 plus 58 plus 29 plus 16.2 = 135.2

The cumulative for the last 5 years YTD for technology index and global 100 are at the very bottom right of these images. These show 5 full years only, whereas yours shows 5 full years plus YTD for this year, so not a direct comparison but unless you ve got the XAIX figures wrong and it is in fact higher, I know where I d have rather parked my money!

Edited by Lincolnshire on Thursday 30th October 06:55

[mikeiow]

ooid said:

Speaking of tech, highly concentrated XAIX ( A.I. & Big Data ETF) has made some serious gains since inception.

2020: 33.3%
2021: 25.2%
2022: -26.5%
2023: 58%
2024: 29%
YTD: 16.2%

After a career in tech, having a tilt to that area always made sense to me (with the occasional collapse - yes, I worked through the dotcom bubble )

It’s hard to bet against it. & this isn’t just S&P500 - plenty on the NASDAQ too.
Aviva North American (other tech funds are available!) is up over 300% over 10 years.
BG American up over 430% (albeit it almost halved at one point - there’s the risk to be aware of!)

Yes, I expect it to have a dip some time, maybe a la 2022 above, but if it continue apace - & tech/AI *almost* certainly will - I will keep a portion concentrated there (currently 20% of my main funds, as well as the large % in my more global funds).

[trevalvole]

Lincolnshire said:

Well you might be right but all I ve done is added up the numbers you typed for XAIX. Cumulative for the total (the sum of the years):

33.3 plus 25.2 minus 26.5 plus 58 plus 29 plus 16.2 = 135.2

I don't think it is calculated like that. I think it should be calculated (from the figures you've given):

(1.333 x 1.252 x (1-0.265) x 1.58 x 1.29 x 1.162) x 100 = 290.5

[Lincolnshire]

trevalvole said:

I don't think it is calculated like that. I think it should be calculated (from the figures you've given):

(1.333 x 1.252 x (1-0.265) x 1.58 x 1.29 x 1.162) x 100 = 290.5

No no no! Not for cumulative ! Cumulative is simple - it’s the total return after a given period of time in this case over 5 years.

[trevalvole]

Lincolnshire said:

trevalvole said:

I don't think it is calculated like that. I think it should be calculated (from the figures you've given):

(1.333 x 1.252 x (1-0.265) x 1.58 x 1.29 x 1.162) x 100 = 290.5

No no no! Not for cumulative ! Cumulative is simple - it s the total return after a given period of time in this case over 5 years.

Let's make it simpler, say a fund lost 50% (halved) one year and gained 100% (doubled) the next. So it is worth 50% of the original value after the first year and then 100% of the original value after the second. Your method would have it being worth 150% of the original value.

[xeny]

Lincolnshire said:

Well you might be right but all I ve done is added up the numbers you typed for XAIX. Cumulative for the total (the sum of the years):

33.3 plus 25.2 minus 26.5 plus 58 plus 29 plus 16.2 = 135.2

This seems unlikely to be correct, as I'd expect to also make 25.2% on the 33.3% return from the first year, pretty much what compounding is.

[NowWatchThisDrive]

Lincolnshire said:

trevalvole said:

I don't think it is calculated like that. I think it should be calculated (from the figures you've given):

(1.333 x 1.252 x (1-0.265) x 1.58 x 1.29 x 1.162) x 100 = 290.5

No no no! Not for cumulative ! Cumulative is simple - it s the total return after a given period of time in this case over 5 years.

This is the sort of thing r/confidentlyincorrect was made for

[ooid]

trevalvole said:

I don't think it is calculated like that. I think it should be calculated (from the figures you've given):

(1.333 x 1.252 x (1-0.265) x 1.58 x 1.29 x 1.162) x 100 = 290.5

You forget to subtract 100 though

Lincoln,

Just start with someone who has invested say 100 GBP and start adding those annual returns, make sure that it's compounding and than see the final sum.

[macron]

Anyway, the markets have liked the CN deal.

[Sheepshanks]

macron said:

Anyway, the markets have liked the CN deal.

[asfault]

Sheepshanks said:

Except the havnt nownas now they are worried that it means less interest rate drops as a result 😂

[732NM]

asfault said:

Except the havnt nownas now they are worried that it means less interest rate drops as a result ?

That's not related to Trump felating Xi.

[Sheepshanks]

asfault said:

Except the havnt nownas now they are worried that it means less interest rate drops as a result ?

That was yesterday’s reaction. Markets don’t seems have responded to the China meeting at all.

[loafer123]

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/28/business/econom...

“There’s an economic explanation for why everything feels so tense right now”

[Panamax]

loafer123 said:

There's an economic explanation for why everything feels so tense right now

I know I go on about this but Bitcoin is right there, dead centre. A house of cards that doesn't even have any cards propping it up. The biggest Ponzi of all time. OK, it looks self-contained but I think that if/when it slumps the contagion will sap confidence right across real markets. Humans don't enjoy losing money.

I was holding on for the stock market ride but now I'm taking some profits from this astounding bull run. Not exiting anything, just trimming a fraction off the top to stick under the mattress, before Ms Reeves delivers her next Budget for Growth. When she talks about "those with the broadest shoulders" I can't help thinking she's looking at my skinny form and thinking, "He looks remarkably well built".

[StoutBench]

Panamax said:

loafer123 said:

There's an economic explanation for why everything feels so tense right now

I know I go on about this but Bitcoin is right there, dead centre. A house of cards that doesn't even have any cards propping it up. The biggest Ponzi of all time. OK, it looks self-contained but I think that if/when it slumps the contagion will sap confidence right across real markets. Humans don't enjoy losing money.

I was holding on for the stock market ride but now I'm taking some profits from this astounding bull run. Not exiting anything, just trimming a fraction off the top to stick under the mattress, before Ms Reeves delivers her next Budget for Growth. When she talks about "those with the broadest shoulders" I can't help thinking she's looking at my skinny form and thinking, "He looks remarkably well built".

If you think whatever Reeves is doing will effect your positions does that mean you are mostly in UK shares? Because it won't affect US markets.