S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?
Discussion
Tango13 said:
g4ry13 said:
Invest in guns, barbed wire and oil for The Great Reset.
V8 engines too, I can remember a documentary with a very young Mel Gibson where everyone had a V8 engine 
g4ry13 said:
Scootersp said:
g4ry13 said:
Move back to cash and watch inflation eat your money.
yes true, but then one of the iconic all time investment guru's has. Your comment perfectly expresses the sentiment of almost everyone, my point is that at some point we all know it'll switch, we all think it'll be a brief/fleeting blip, no one is thinking of the black swan chance, even ignoring the moves of the most successful in history?
Just DCA and hold if the funds aren't needed.
What’s to say we don’t see yields go to 8% and the value of those products fall again, just when you then want to cash out to buy stocks etc?
Being in cash is the lowest risk position when nothing feels like it should be worth what it is.
Mr Whippy said:
why didn’t anyone see the risk in bonds/gilts/treasuries coming, after sitting at near zirp so long?
I think the answer is that inflation had been so low for so long that everyone thought inflation was dead.Let's not forget that when inflation did suddenly raise its head all the central bankers and economists were diligently insisting "it's just a short term blip". Well done, lads.
And also let's not forget the long period of unusually low interest rates after 2008. Even negative rates in some cases, although not in UK, where the banks would charge a % for holding customer deposits. Ouch.
Sheepshanks said:
I suppose the derisking thing comes from people buying annuities - bear in mind in only in the last few years that retirees have had a choice.
The other thing is it's all very well having 2-3yrs cash - but what if there's a 10yr slump?
You have to decide how many years you want in 'cash' - it's a clear trade off, lower returns in good years, but can save losses in bad ones....The other thing is it's all very well having 2-3yrs cash - but what if there's a 10yr slump?
I've got 2-3 in cash - closer to 2 but I'd probably make it last 3. Then another 3 years worth of spending in 'low risk' funds, then another 3 in medium and the rest in equities.
There isn't a right answer without the benefit of hindsight.
BTW - 'cash' for me is a mix of fixed term deposits that mature 6-12 months apart and I roll them - and money market funds.
Car bon said:
Sheepshanks said:
I suppose the derisking thing comes from people buying annuities - bear in mind in only in the last few years that retirees have had a choice.
The other thing is it's all very well having 2-3yrs cash - but what if there's a 10yr slump?
You have to decide how many years you want in 'cash' - it's a clear trade off, lower returns in good years, but can save losses in bad ones....The other thing is it's all very well having 2-3yrs cash - but what if there's a 10yr slump?
I've got 2-3 in cash - closer to 2 but I'd probably make it last 3. Then another 3 years worth of spending in 'low risk' funds, then another 3 in medium and the rest in equities.
There isn't a right answer without the benefit of hindsight.
BTW - 'cash' for me is a mix of fixed term deposits that mature 6-12 months apart and I roll them - and money market funds.
As I said, there is always a McJob somewhere....delivery driving, dog walking, whatever.
mikeiow said:
& if there is a 10 year slump....well, hopefully inflation would match that, & belts might need to be tightened. Coats need cutting to the cloth available.
As I said, there is always a McJob somewhere....delivery driving, dog walking, whatever.
Maybe some on this thread actually pay for that service themselves but it came as a surprise to me how much people are charging for dog walking. Always thought the point of a dog included walking it. But locally £15 an hour per dog seems to be the going rate and people are walking multiple at a time. As I said, there is always a McJob somewhere....delivery driving, dog walking, whatever.
scot_aln said:
mikeiow said:
& if there is a 10 year slump....well, hopefully inflation would match that, & belts might need to be tightened. Coats need cutting to the cloth available.
As I said, there is always a McJob somewhere....delivery driving, dog walking, whatever.
Maybe some on this thread actually pay for that service themselves but it came as a surprise to me how much people are charging for dog walking. Always thought the point of a dog included walking it. But locally £15 an hour per dog seems to be the going rate and people are walking multiple at a time. As I said, there is always a McJob somewhere....delivery driving, dog walking, whatever.
g4ry13 said:
scot_aln said:
mikeiow said:
& if there is a 10 year slump....well, hopefully inflation would match that, & belts might need to be tightened. Coats need cutting to the cloth available.
As I said, there is always a McJob somewhere....delivery driving, dog walking, whatever.
Maybe some on this thread actually pay for that service themselves but it came as a surprise to me how much people are charging for dog walking. Always thought the point of a dog included walking it. But locally £15 an hour per dog seems to be the going rate and people are walking multiple at a time. As I said, there is always a McJob somewhere....delivery driving, dog walking, whatever.
Sheepshanks said:
I would think that if there's a 10yr slump then supply and demand for such services may become somewhat out of balance!
Yup, a good recession brings everything down to realistic levels.I was amazed at how many ‘soft play’ type places but for dogs not children, had popped up around wealthier areas.
All the dog stuff went a bit daft through covid.
I wouldn’t be seen dead somewhere like that but clearly taste and money know no bounds.
Mr Whippy said:
Yup, a good recession brings everything down to realistic levels.
I was amazed at how many ‘soft play’ type places but for dogs not children, had popped up around wealthier areas.
All the dog stuff went a bit daft through covid.
I wouldn’t be seen dead somewhere like that but clearly taste and money know no bounds.
Never seen one of these. Maybe your area. I was amazed at how many ‘soft play’ type places but for dogs not children, had popped up around wealthier areas.
All the dog stuff went a bit daft through covid.
I wouldn’t be seen dead somewhere like that but clearly taste and money know no bounds.
Panamax said:
although not in UK, where the banks would charge a % for holding customer deposits. Ouch.
You do understand what a bank is and does?Deposit taking is both costly and liable to taxes. When depositors get paid it's because they are taking a risk to the banks lending and maturity transformation activity ABOVE its cost base.
If rates are zero or negative of course depositors receive nothing OR get charged. It's not free parking. There is a cost of production to banks doing their thing. Liabilities are taxed and many other costs exist (I mean how do you think FSCS gets funded?).
Obviously we could do away with those costs and pay more interest, but I'd love to read the rate w
e thread when all the challenger banks disappear because actual credit assessment becomes a thing.There are many factors driving the S&P, but not understanding leverage, rates and inflation (probably in that order) is going to lose you muchus $$$$
supersport said:
Someone I worked with was paying £15 an hour for dog walking, blew my mind. That there’s such a thing as doggie soft play is mind bending. Clearly bubble time.
All of this stuff has been around for years. People want pets, internet makes it easy to find someone to care for them when you work. Bruce’s has been operating in Cobham since 2008, it ain’t new.
OoopsVoss said:
Panamax said:
although not in UK, where the banks would charge a % for holding customer deposits. Ouch.
You do understand what a bank is and does?Deposit taking is both costly and liable to taxes. When depositors get paid it's because they are taking a risk to the banks lending and maturity transformation activity ABOVE its cost base.
If rates are zero or negative of course depositors receive nothing OR get charged. It's not free parking. There is a cost of production to banks doing their thing. Liabilities are taxed and many other costs exist (I mean how do you think FSCS gets funded?).
Obviously we could do away with those costs and pay more interest, but I'd love to read the rate w
e thread when all the challenger banks disappear because actual credit assessment becomes a thing.There are many factors driving the S&P, but not understanding leverage, rates and inflation (probably in that order) is going to lose you muchus $$$
This is why the USA FRB didn’t go there because the FRB is owned by the banks, and they need positive cost of debt to stay solvent.
So yes we all get what banks are and do. But they only would charge for deposits because of cretinous CB policy designed to shaft the majority for the benefit of the few… hardly celebratory material.
okgo said:
supersport said:
Someone I worked with was paying £15 an hour for dog walking, blew my mind. That there’s such a thing as doggie soft play is mind bending. Clearly bubble time.
All of this stuff has been around for years. People want pets, internet makes it easy to find someone to care for them when you work. Bruce’s has been operating in Cobham since 2008, it ain’t new.
We don’t have dogs. I naively assumed you have them and look after them. So was a complete surprise to me.
Or maybe it’s just taken time to come up north from that London, or wherever Cobham is
Still blows my mind, but maybe I’m just getting old. supersport said:
We don’t have dogs. I naively assumed you have them and look after them. So was a complete surprise to me.
Or maybe it’s just taken time to come up north from that London, or wherever Cobham is
Still blows my mind, but maybe I’m just getting old. supersport said:
We don’t have dogs. I naively assumed you have them and look after them. So was a complete surprise to me.
Or maybe it’s just taken time to come up north from that London, or wherever Cobham is
Still blows my mind, but maybe I’m just getting old. Cobham, Chelsea FC training ground, 'The Wisley' golf clourse just down the road, £100K initiation (whatever that is - assume like a debenture) then 6-8K a year, so a shining example of the UK wealth gap! As are Doggy day care, softplay and even birthday parties!
The S&P 500 is another really, if the have a chunk in it then you have a chance of out stripping inflation if you don't then you are likely fully at inflations mercy as wage inflation seems down there with the lowest?
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