Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

[anonymous-user]

av185 said:

13.875% bank rates 1990.

Seem to recollect my mortgage was 15.4% at some point early 90s.

Just one very major factor totally different to now.

True, however other factors that come into play now are that debt to income on average is much higher now, and many took out debt without considering that interest rates would increase (everyone is now very used to cheap borrowing), so the tipping point for many is much lower now - rates don't need to get anywhere near 90s rates to have a similar effect on many.

[buyer&seller]

av185 said:

Be intriguing to learn of these desirable cars which apparantly ALL crashed in the 90s.....

Edited by av185 on Monday 30th May 12:46

If you were involved in buying and selling cars back then you'd know, I doubt you were and I doubt you actually are now otherwise you'd share with us what your actual role is in the motor trade, you've been asked on numerous occasions and still haven't answered.

[av185]

[quote=buyer&seller]

av185 said:

Be intriguing to learn of these desirable cars which apparantly ALL crashed in the 90s.....

Edited by av185 on Monday 30th May 12:46

If you were involved in buying and selling cars back then you'd know, I doubt you were and I doubt you actually are now otherwise you'd share with us what your actual role is in the motor trade, you've been asked on numerous occasions and still haven't answered.

If you are that bothered you could always read the whole thread I've mentioned it a number of times. I am sure you can find the time if you are that interested.

Please regale us with your presumably vast experience of the motor trade/bric a brac : and more specifically used car price trends and particularly all those desirable cars which apparantly tanked in the 90s which was clearly what my post was about in the first place.

[Earthdweller]

yellowbentines said:

av185 said:

13.875% bank rates 1990.

Seem to recollect my mortgage was 15.4% at some point early 90s.

Just one very major factor totally different to now.

True, however other factors that come into play now are that debt to income on average is much higher now, and many took out debt without considering that interest rates would increase (everyone is now very used to cheap borrowing), so the tipping point for many is much lower now - rates don't need to get anywhere near 90s rates to have a similar effect on many.

Absolutely the level of household debt today is double almost what it was in the 90’s

It’s only sustainable by very low interest rates and if they go up even a little it will be far more impactive than the 90’s

Credit was much harder to get and people were used to paying much higher rates on loans

People are far more vulnerable today to rate changes and a downturn in the economy than 30 years ago

[time waster]

[quote=buyer&seller]

av185 said:

Be intriguing to learn of these desirable cars which apparantly ALL crashed in the 90s.....

Edited by av185 on Monday 30th May 12:46

If you were involved in buying and selling cars back then you'd know, I doubt you were and I doubt you actually are now otherwise you'd share with us what your actual role is in the motor trade, you've been asked on numerous occasions and still haven't answered.

I think AV is a bit of a Walter Mitty

[av185]

yellowbentines said:

av185 said:

13.875% bank rates 1990.

Seem to recollect my mortgage was 15.4% at some point early 90s.

Just one very major factor totally different to now.

True, however other factors that come into play now are that debt to income on average is much higher now, and many took out debt without considering that interest rates would increase (everyone is now very used to cheap borrowing), so the tipping point for many is much lower now - rates don't need to get anywhere near 90s rates to have a similar effect on many.

Good points but there is clearly still alot of money sloshing around although obviously things will get worse for many due to the energy/food costs rising etc.

Apart from the major interest rate and employment rate differences this time we have the continuing supply chain issues which will certainly not be a quick fix coupled with far more expensive new car prices (many around 20percent more over the last three years alone) and continuing limited new car production.

[e-honda]

September 2021 was a record low for mortgage rates in UK
They have nearly doubled by the end of April, and we have had another base rate rise since.
We have already seen many dealers increasing thier APR and there may well be more to come.
The rates in the 80s and 90s were higher, but that was the norm then and they were priced in. Now we have prices based on record low borrowing rates that have been falling almost continuously for a decade, you can not double them and not expect it to have an impact.

[buyer&seller]

av185 said:

If you are that bothered you could always read the whole thread I've mentioned it a number of times. I am sure you can find the time if you are that interested.

Please regale us with your presumably vast experience of the motor trade/bric a brac : and more specifically used car price trends and particularly all those desirable cars which apparantly tanked in the 90s which was clearly what my post was about in the first place.

I have been reading this thread since it started and I don't think I have read where you have mentioned your role in the motor trade, perhaps I missed it but as, if you claim, you've already stated it then I'm sure you won't mind repeating yourself.

I do actually have experience of the motor trade as I signed up in 1977 and started selling cars in 1984, so I'd guess that 45 years and 38 years selling might be vast to some.

I'm not here to contribute to used car trends as, let's face it, you are showing it's impossible to predict, the drivel and twisting and turning that you keep coming out with is amusing to read though, occasionally you do seem right but lets face it even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

I am though able to comment about what happened in the past as I, unlike you, was actually there at the time doing the job. As I did mention earlier in this thread in the late '80's and through the '90's I was selling Jaguar, Rolls-Royce & Bentley for one of the largest dealers in the country, now obviously things have moved on with the expansion of Porsche, Ferrari, McLaren, Lamborghini etc etc but back in those days Rolls-Royce and Bentley was pretty much the top of the shop, other than the odd Aston and Ferrari that sold in very small numbers and who's values dropped like a stone.

When the ill winds started blowing in late '89 and into 1990 our waiting list for a new Turbo R went from three years to when do you want one, Jaguar from 12 months to similar, used vehicle prices began to plummet and not just the stuff we were selling it was the same across town at Porsche, BMW, Mercedes. How about the Ferrari 328's list price circa £40k that were selling for up to £100k in 1989? they crashed, one of our sister branches had one in stock and and lost a fortune on it, they ended up back at below list, finance repossessions went through the roof, we had used Rolls-Royce/Bentley stock which was tens of thousands of pounds wrong and dropping every week.

What happened next though was the company were pragmatic in there approach, prices were reduced and any deal was considered, it didn't matter if the deal lost money, get rid and put the money back in the bank. Very shortly though we went through the cycle and the stock we were buying in was at todays money, we were able to buy the finance repossessions for a song as the banks were desperate to get their money back, owners were desperate for cash so we bought their cars back too at the going rate, we bought cars from Crewe who were also desperate for money, all of a sudden we saw a whole new bunch of buyers we hadn't seen before hunting for a bargain and on the new stock we were making great money.

So AV everything tanked and I was there to see it with my own eyes, that's what you call experience, something you actually have none of, all you have is guess work, anecdotal evidence, made up stuff and bullst.

[Bertrum]

av185 said:

Apart from the major interest rate and employment rate differences this time we have the continuing supply chain issues which will certainly not be a quick fix coupled with far more expensive new car prices (many around 20percent more over the last three years alone) and continuing limited new car production.

Supply Chain isn’t really that much of an issue now, parts are readily available and the ‘chip’ shortage for anything new is no longer and issue either. New car deliveries will lag behind this improvement. But it shouldn’t be long maybe 3 months.

Prices equally have peaked from a material perspective so I wouldn’t anticipate any major new car cost increases after Q3 when all the material increases have filtered through.

My prediction is that new car supply will improve dramatically in Q4 although older models will likely be phased out or face lifted (due to obsolescence issues in IC’s and other components) which will in turn see a mild correction of used car availability and price.

I can’t speak for buying habits or interest rates or anything else as I have no idea.

[Venisonpie]

Bertrum said:

Supply Chain isn’t really that much of an issue now, parts are readily available and the ‘chip’ shortage for anything new is no longer and issue either. New car deliveries will lag behind this improvement. But it shouldn’t be long maybe 3 months.

Prices equally have peaked from a material perspective so I wouldn’t anticipate any major new car cost increases after Q3 when all the material increases have filtered through.

My prediction is that new car supply will improve dramatically in Q4 although older models will likely be phased out or face lifted (due to obsolescence issues in IC’s and other components) which will in turn see a mild correction of used car availability and price.

I can’t speak for buying habits or interest rates or anything else as I have no idea.

Whenever I read that supply chains will improve I'm always intrigued as to which manufacturers this applies to and what models are going to be available sooner?

As someone who up until 10 days ago bought new vehicles for a living this wasn't the case. 10 days is a long time in a changing world however.

[av185]

[quote=buyer&seller]

av185 said:

If you are that bothered you could always read the whole thread I've mentioned it a number of times. I am sure you can find the time if you are that interested.

Please regale us with your presumably vast experience of the motor trade/bric a brac : and more specifically used car price trends and particularly all those desirable cars which apparantly tanked in the 90s which was clearly what my post was about in the first place.

I have been reading this thread since it started and I don't think I have read where you have mentioned your role in the motor trade, perhaps I missed it but as, if you claim, you've already stated it then I'm sure you won't mind repeating yourself.

I do actually have experience of the motor trade as I signed up in 1977 and started selling cars in 1984, so I'd guess that 45 years and 38 years selling might be vast to some.

I'm not here to contribute to used car trends as, let's face it, you are showing it's impossible to predict, the drivel and twisting and turning that you keep coming out with is amusing to read though, occasionally you do seem right but lets face it even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

I am though able to comment about what happened in the past as I, unlike you, was actually there at the time doing the job. As I did mention earlier in this thread in the late '80's and through the '90's I was selling Jaguar, Rolls-Royce & Bentley for one of the largest dealers in the country, now obviously things have moved on with the expansion of Porsche, Ferrari, McLaren, Lamborghini etc etc but back in those days Rolls-Royce and Bentley was pretty much the top of the shop, other than the odd Aston and Ferrari that sold in very small numbers and who's values dropped like a stone.

When the ill winds started blowing in late '89 and into 1990 our waiting list for a new Turbo R went from three years to when do you want one, Jaguar from 12 months to similar, used vehicle prices began to plummet and not just the stuff we were selling it was the same across town at Porsche, BMW, Mercedes. How about the Ferrari 328's list price circa £40k that were selling for up to £100k in 1989? they crashed, one of our sister branches had one in stock and and lost a fortune on it, they ended up back at below list, finance repossessions went through the roof, we had used Rolls-Royce/Bentley stock which was tens of thousands of pounds wrong and dropping every week.

What happened next though was the company were pragmatic in there approach, prices were reduced and any deal was considered, it didn't matter if the deal lost money, get rid and put the money back in the bank. Very shortly though we went through the cycle and the stock we were buying in was at todays money, we were able to buy the finance repossessions for a song as the banks were desperate to get their money back, owners were desperate for cash so we bought their cars back too at the going rate, we bought cars from Crewe who were also desperate for money, all of a sudden we saw a whole new bunch of buyers we hadn't seen before hunting for a bargain and on the new stock we were making great money.

So AV everything tanked and I was there to see it with my own eyes, that's what you call experience, something you actually have none of, all you have is guess work, anecdotal evidence, made up stuff and bullst.

All very interesting I'm sure reading about your apparant and self proclaimed 'high flying' career as an top flight 'executive' car sales chap through the ages selling all those old school cars so yes yes congratulations and well done you but I am sure most remain broadly unimpressed despite your continuing name dropping presumably in a desperate and vain attempt to impress.

Unfortunately for you what you fail to spot is that IF indeed you have read the whole of the thread as you clearly fictitiously claim you would have immediately noticed that I have in fact been correctly predicting used car prices and used car trends for some considerable time throughout this thread. If you are in any doubt please feel free to actually read the thread this time accept your glaring error and if still in doubt you could always check with posters such as Deep Thought who regularly posts and frequents car threads such as these and unlike you has considerable posting history, unlike you wide experience and knowlege of car markets and unlike you has considerable financial experience across car funding.

The other aspect of your overlongwinded post is that whilst your apparant 'career' in carsales through the ages is made out to be quite lengthy, astoundingly this has clearly failed to give you any insight whatsoever into car price trends. Quite remarkable in fact. In fact so remarkable I smell bullst.

Finally, the other glaring anomoly is that whilst you quite obviously fictitiously claim to have a spent your best years selling cars, quite bizarrely you have no cars whatsoever listed in your PH 'garage'. Do you even have a pushbike?

It has to be said old chap all very odd indeed. You've shot yourself in the proverbial.

It is fairly obvious you should clearly stick to selling bric a brac and general bullst as your day job.

Cheers then and back to the thread. :

[Earthdweller]

Meanwhile over on the Porsche threads :

[e-honda]

av185 said:

All very interesting I'm sure reading about your apparant and self proclaimed 'high flying' career as an top flight 'executive' car sales chap through the ages selling all those old school cars so yes yes congratulations and well done you but I am sure most remain broadly unimpressed despite your continuing name dropping presumably in a desperate and vain attempt to impress.

Unfortunately for you what you fail to spot is that IF indeed you have read the whole of the thread as you clearly fictitiously claim you would have immediately noticed that I have in fact been correctly predicting used car prices and used car trends for some considerable time throughout this thread. If you are in any doubt please feel free to actually read the thread this time accept your glaring error and if still in doubt you could always check with posters such as Deep Thought who regularly posts and frequents car threads such as these and unlike you has considerable posting history, unlike you wide experience and knowlege of car markets and unlike you has considerable financial experience across car funding.

The other aspect of your overlongwinded post is that whilst your apparant 'career' in carsales through the ages is made out to be quite lengthy, astoundingly this has clearly failed to give you any insight whatsoever into car price trends. Quite remarkable in fact. In fact so remarkable I smell bullst.

Finally, the other glaring anomoly is that whilst you quite obviously fictitiously claim to have a spent your best years selling cars, quite bizarrely you have no cars whatsoever listed in your PH 'garage'. Do you even have a pushbike?

It has to be said old chap all very odd indeed. You've shot yourself in the proverbial.

It is fairly obvious you should clearly stick to selling bric a brac and general bullst as your day job.

Cheers then and back to the thread. :

You predicted nothing.
You are a bull in a bubble, like a stop watch with a broken button that appears useful until the crucial moment comes and turns out to be a useless stick endlessly spinning around

[Al U]

av185 said:

Sounds like you should stick to your high level day job of trainee engineer in a model car factory.

apparant and self proclaimed 'high flying' career as an top flight 'executive'

I know I said I'd do my best to not reply but the levels of tragic are so high I can't resist.

Why do you mock what other people do for a living, while swerving the question every time someone asks what it is you actually do?

Also questioning the validity of someone's post just because they haven't put which cars they own in their 'PH Garage' is a bit ridiculous really.

All the more ridiculous that you haven't put which cars you own in your 'PH Garage' either! Unless you are going to refer to the list of cars you have put in your notes all of which surely need a custard test. Unless they are just a stocklist at the place you work at as a car salesman?

[av185]

Now what was it Earthdweller was constantly saying about Accrington....

[Earthdweller]

Al U said:

av185 said:

Sounds like you should stick to your high level day job of trainee engineer in a model car factory.

apparant and self proclaimed 'high flying' career as an top flight 'executive'

I know I said I'd do my best to not reply but the levels of tragic are so high I can't resist.

Why do you mock what other people do for a living, while swerving the question every time someone asks what it is you actually do?

Also questioning the validity of someone's post just because they haven't put which cars they own in their 'PH Garage' is a bit ridiculous really.

All the more ridiculous that you haven't put which cars you own in your 'PH Garage' either! Unless you are going to refer to the list of cars you have put in your notes all of which surely need a custard test. Unless they are just a stocklist at the place you work at as a car salesman?

I’ll tell you what I’ll challenge AV now to post date/time stamped pics of the cars in his garage

I’ll do it with three of the four cars in mine ( I can’t do the fourth because it’s currently in a different country from me )

Let’s see your cars then AV as clearly what people say they have is important to you

So prove what you’ve got

[av185]

Al U said:

av185 said:

Sounds like you should stick to your high level day job of trainee engineer in a model car factory.

apparant and self proclaimed 'high flying' career as an top flight 'executive'

I know I said I'd do my best to not reply but the levels of tragic are so high I can't resist.

Why do you mock what other people do for a living, while swerving the question every time someone asks what it is you actually do?

Also questioning the validity of someone's post just because they haven't put which cars they own in their 'PH Garage' is a bit ridiculous really.

All the more ridiculous that you haven't put which cars you own in your 'PH Garage' either! Unless you are going to refer to the list of cars you have put in your notes all of which surely need a custard test. Unless they are just a stocklist at the place you work at as a car salesman?

Out of curiosity which cars do you own?

[Al U]

av185 said:

Out of curiosity which cars do you own?

I sold my car in February, which was a 330D. I hope that the fact it has a 6 cylinder engine will go some way to increasing the validity of my posts somewhat in your mind.

See it's easy to answer a question when someone asks you one. What do you do for a living?

[Earthdweller]

av185 said:

Now what was it Earthdweller was constantly saying about Accrington....

Get a grip you clown

All you ever do is dismiss and ridicule any one who you doesn’t agree with you .. you don’t debate, you don’t engage you just blow off billy big balls then when challenged you don’t reason and discuss

You just play the man not the ball


You really are displaying some quite nasty personality traits

Once again .. I’m not from Accrington, I’ve never lived in Accrington .. but I am from Lancashire ( and proud of it ) and indeed my grandfather was one of the Accrington pals, although he wasn’t from Accrington either

As I say, the above post emphasises how childish and immature you actually are

You are incapable of debate and always resort straight away to abuse

It’s not pleasant and says everything about you

[av185]

Earthdweller said:

I’ll tell you what I’ll challenge AV now to post date/time stamped pics of the cars in his garage

I’ll do it with three of the four cars in mine ( I can’t do the fourth because it’s currently in a different country from me )

Let’s see your cars then AV as clearly what people say they have is important to you

So prove what you’ve got

You have obviously been reading through my posts I am flattered you are so intrigued thanks.

It does seem a bit of a coincidence that you deny anything to do with Accrington and yet constantly talk it up as a 'commuting suburb' for Manchester then again coincidentally post about a long gone BMW dealer from oh yes...Accrington. Small world isn't it.

Just admit you are in fact from Accrington (nothing to be ashamed of btw) and don't actually own 3 properties at all and aren't actually posting from your own private island.

Are you ex Plod btw? Just a hunch.