F1 WDC analysis and hopes so far...?
Discussion
Ok, so Monaco practice, with it's low speed mechanical grip corners, seems to highlight one thing - the Redbull clearly has the best aero package, the Ferrari the best mechanical package and the Mclaren the best combination of the two which makes for a great race-package.
With Webber already beaten mentally, forget points, Vettel is running away with this, but with mechanically dominant circuits, Monaco, Canada, Valencia comng up, to keep the WDC alive Hamilton and Alonso must must must beat Vettel in all of these races. In that time maybe the Ferrari and McLaren with their development power, have the chance to come up with something to match the Redbulls in time for the return to the aero dominant circuits from the mid-point onwards.
Can it be done? Is the WDC really over already?
We can forget reliability issues. If anything, KERS will be more reliable for Redbull as the season progresses so we can't hope for any reliability to come into play - which is a pretty unique situation for F1, albeit the past few years.
I see some bookies are already paying out for another Vettel WDC.
Is there still hope? Can the only two F1 masters, Alonso and Hamilton, Ferrari and McLaren do anything about this?
With Webber already beaten mentally, forget points, Vettel is running away with this, but with mechanically dominant circuits, Monaco, Canada, Valencia comng up, to keep the WDC alive Hamilton and Alonso must must must beat Vettel in all of these races. In that time maybe the Ferrari and McLaren with their development power, have the chance to come up with something to match the Redbulls in time for the return to the aero dominant circuits from the mid-point onwards.
Can it be done? Is the WDC really over already?
We can forget reliability issues. If anything, KERS will be more reliable for Redbull as the season progresses so we can't hope for any reliability to come into play - which is a pretty unique situation for F1, albeit the past few years.
I see some bookies are already paying out for another Vettel WDC.
Is there still hope? Can the only two F1 masters, Alonso and Hamilton, Ferrari and McLaren do anything about this?
Ferrari are in a state of flux at the moment, sacking people, and the press are on their backs. This is normally the prelude to an implosion. I think, not matter how good Alonso is, he’s not good enough to drag Ferrari out of the mire. No driver is.
There is some mumbling about mapping, which seems to give RB the edge in qually. If there is a change there then perhaps this would give Ferrari a boost. The unfortunate thing (from their point of view at least) is that this would also help McLaren.
One thing, though. In the 2012 negotiations for the control of F1, the FIA need some form of power base to argue their point of view from. Out of the three parties they hold the weakest hand. A slight manipulation of the regs in Ferrari favour might well encourage the team to take up with the FIA and provide a power block to CVC/Eccs. Not, of course, that I’m suggesting there’s any likelihood of corruption. Let’s make that clear.
CVC owns the rights to the F1 logo. That is their real strength. However, if the FIA and Ferrari form a power base then McL will join in, as will Merc, Renault and Sauber. Williams I’m not sure about. Before they floated I would have said that they wouldn’t. I’m not so sure now though. RB? I have no idea. And therein lies my problem with predictions.
So some hopes for Ferrari.
Is there anything that would help Ferrari that would not also benefit McLaren? Can the FIA afford to upset RB?
Is there an argument for FOCA to let things stand for this season now that, at a quarter of the way through, Vettel is running away with it? Certainly Whitmarsh seemed to suggest at the last race that he did not want the legality of the RB challenged by HRT.
But without some form of rule modification I reckon that RB, which means Vettel, will walk it. There might well be an upset for Monaco, but that’s one race. Canada? I can’t see them losing there. Valencia is more problematical but from then on . . .
It is RB/Vettel’s championship.
There is some mumbling about mapping, which seems to give RB the edge in qually. If there is a change there then perhaps this would give Ferrari a boost. The unfortunate thing (from their point of view at least) is that this would also help McLaren.
One thing, though. In the 2012 negotiations for the control of F1, the FIA need some form of power base to argue their point of view from. Out of the three parties they hold the weakest hand. A slight manipulation of the regs in Ferrari favour might well encourage the team to take up with the FIA and provide a power block to CVC/Eccs. Not, of course, that I’m suggesting there’s any likelihood of corruption. Let’s make that clear.
CVC owns the rights to the F1 logo. That is their real strength. However, if the FIA and Ferrari form a power base then McL will join in, as will Merc, Renault and Sauber. Williams I’m not sure about. Before they floated I would have said that they wouldn’t. I’m not so sure now though. RB? I have no idea. And therein lies my problem with predictions.
So some hopes for Ferrari.
Is there anything that would help Ferrari that would not also benefit McLaren? Can the FIA afford to upset RB?
Is there an argument for FOCA to let things stand for this season now that, at a quarter of the way through, Vettel is running away with it? Certainly Whitmarsh seemed to suggest at the last race that he did not want the legality of the RB challenged by HRT.
But without some form of rule modification I reckon that RB, which means Vettel, will walk it. There might well be an upset for Monaco, but that’s one race. Canada? I can’t see them losing there. Valencia is more problematical but from then on . . .
It is RB/Vettel’s championship.
Ferrari are acting desperate there is no doubt about that, by their high standards. Probably beyond reasonable recovery... although they turned that around toward the end of last year despite being in a similar siutuation.
I thought Canada was not an aero dominant circuit? It's mostly fast straight-ish sections followed by slow corners. There's only a couple of fast corners. While RB are never going to be blown away on these circuits, their advantage proved in 2010 to be lessened enough for Ferrari and McLaren to compete and beat them in a straight fight, even if RB were still pretty close.
Just a couple of tenths will be enough difference to swing things in another's favour, especially on race-pace it would seem.
t's the next races, particularly Silverstone onwards that I see as a walk in the park for Vettel/RB, which is why I see then next few races as absolutely essential to keep a close WDC together, whether these really be non-RB circuits or not. The difference has to be close enough for the last dregs of hope for a competitive season.
It's a shame MW didn't win the WDC in 2010 as the added confidence may have allowed him to compete with SV, but as the reverse happened, I see no chance of that this year, ever. A total number 2.
I thought Canada was not an aero dominant circuit? It's mostly fast straight-ish sections followed by slow corners. There's only a couple of fast corners. While RB are never going to be blown away on these circuits, their advantage proved in 2010 to be lessened enough for Ferrari and McLaren to compete and beat them in a straight fight, even if RB were still pretty close.
Just a couple of tenths will be enough difference to swing things in another's favour, especially on race-pace it would seem.
t's the next races, particularly Silverstone onwards that I see as a walk in the park for Vettel/RB, which is why I see then next few races as absolutely essential to keep a close WDC together, whether these really be non-RB circuits or not. The difference has to be close enough for the last dregs of hope for a competitive season.
It's a shame MW didn't win the WDC in 2010 as the added confidence may have allowed him to compete with SV, but as the reverse happened, I see no chance of that this year, ever. A total number 2.
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