Thai election won by Thaksin's sister

[turbobloke]

http://news.yahoo.com/edgy-thailand-votes-bracing-...

So Yingluck Shinawatra is Thailand's first female PM and as an update to that item, outgoing PM Abhisit Vejjajiva has indeed resigned from his position as Democrat Party leader.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/245369/abh...

The result is not entirely without some suspicion of electoral fraud.

http://www.theage.com.au/world/voterigging-allegat...

The new PM's 'For Thais' party policies which proved populist have a worrying western flavour.

"Yingluck electrified his (Thaksin's) supporters, ran a disciplined campaign and promised Thaksin-style populist policies, including a big rise in the national minimum wage and free tablet PCs for nearly one million school children."

Some other questions raised by the result are how long before constitutional and/or law changes allow Thaksin to return and re-enter politics without having to serve his jail term for corruption, and will the Yellow Shirts be causing problems for Airport users. Given the firm majority it's hoped that there might be some stability but recent history suggests caution.

[AJS-]

They've started on some pretty wild promises now.

Big give aways for people buying cars and houses for the first time. Free lap tops for school children. Credit cards for taxi drivers and farmers. A higher minimum wage.

It feels a little bit like 1997 in a way. Not sure where the money will come from.

Thai friends reckon the problems will only start if and when they give Thaksin an amnesty and let him return to the country. The popular suspicion is that this will happen around the end of the year, in time for his daughter's wedding.

They also believe Thaksin himself will not try and return to politics. This would be too divisive and anyway pointless as his supporters and enemies will know/believe he is pulling the strings anyway.

Interesting times ahead.

[turbobloke]

AJS- said:

Thai friends reckon the problems will only start if and when they give Thaksin an amnesty and let him return to the country. The popular suspicion is that this will happen around the end of the year, in time for his daughter's wedding.

. . .

Interesting times ahead.

Surely.

In addition to an amnesty for Thaksin, the red shirt leaders not imprisoned after burning Bangkok are calling for the new government to secure the release of 'political prisoners'.

The general political direction including giveaways is cause for concern, and if the constitution and statute book are changed yet again, that will grow.

The extent to which the next government can implement its populist policies will be capped by the law on public debt

Inflation key risk for Thai economy

[AJS-]

As I understand it they are promising a balanced budget for next year, so in theory government debt shouldn't go up. However like everything in Thailand, the reality might owe little or nothing to whatever is planned or reported.

It sounds like you're veering towards the Democrat/yellow shirt side of things, if any?

[turbobloke]

AJS- said:

As I understand it they are promising a balanced budget for next year, so in theory government debt shouldn't go up. However like everything in Thailand, the reality might owe little or nothing to whatever is planned or reported.

It sounds like you're veering towards the Democrat/yellow shirt side of things, if any?

Not really veering, more observing, as I can't see how seducing a nation's rural poor with visions of a socialist utopia paid for on tick will end well in the long run.

[AJS-]

Agreed, but it's a very effective strategy politically in a country where 90% of the population live in tin sheds, and about 5% live lives that the middle class in Europe or the US can only dream of.

I would say socialist utopia is a bit of hyperbole, and Thaksin an unlikely revolutionary.

What he is most popular for are a few things like subsidised health care for the rural poor and investing in new infrastructure, but more importantly still for giving off at least the perception of being a PM who is drawn from and gives a damn about the 90%. Things one takes for granted in most western countries, and hardly socialist in the eastern bloc sense.

Yes he lined his own pockets doing it, but that is the Thai way, and neither side, nor any organisation with any authority in the entire country, can really claim the moral highground on corruption.

Conversely what Abhisit and his party are most unpopular for is not their vaguely conservative political agenda but for (at least in the perceptions of the ordinary Thai) twice deposing democratically elected governments in order to protect their own vested interests and continue lining their own pockets.

[turbobloke]

Hypoerbole or not, what amazes me more than anything is that before and during Thaksin's spell in power the promises he made were as generous and unfulfilled as many of those from his sister will be, yet the attraction to them is still moth-like. Not all were aimed at the rural north-east, have you sat in a Bangkok traffic jam recently?! Selling costly dreams of an egalitarian nature as easy and seemingly for free, any of which are even partly delusional, is still something that marks one side of the debate out as cynically exploitative. In terms of the almost traditional 'cup of tea' sweetener, as you say there is again nothing new there and the business community looks to be more determined these days to stop the pocket lining at the expense of the taxpayer (those that pay) and themselves. It goes on equally with both sides but some are more equal than others.

[slow_poke]

500 Baht a vote, the going rate in the Sois of Samuth Prakharn.

[AJS-]

slow_poke said:

500 Baht a vote, the going rate in the Sois of Samuth Prakharn.

The woman I spoke to on Satudady in Chaiyaphum (rural Isan, and the heart of Pheu Thai country) was pretty disappointed not to have been offered anything for her vote.