Stock Market over valued
Discussion
Yeah there are many ways to "value" the market.. Also many time frames to value it against.
If you are looking 100 years forward is it over valued now? If so compared to what? etc..
Now in relative terms the US is more highly valued than the UK market, or other European markets, so in that context Id suggest that the US might be overvalued.. question is which market has the best growth prospects...
Emerging markets? Ireland?... Greece?
If you are looking 100 years forward is it over valued now? If so compared to what? etc..
Now in relative terms the US is more highly valued than the UK market, or other European markets, so in that context Id suggest that the US might be overvalued.. question is which market has the best growth prospects...
Emerging markets? Ireland?... Greece?
Beardy10 said:
..My personal view is that stock markets are currently over valued becuase the financial system is in meltdown.......
& even then, hardly a dent has been made on the upswing since March 2009. If confidence returns, money is freely available Dow 30,000 is also possible, and converse.nightflight said:
I read recently that the US stock market is over valued by around 70%, and will possibly face a "correction" in 2013. Is the UK market similarly over priced, and facing a similar correction?
Stop reading blogs written by US shorters. (or possibly Hedge fund managers)
Popular wisdom, or perhaps more accurately, popular belief is that there are a few shares with PEs higher than they should be, but generally prices are in line with earnings.
Likewise there a quite a few shares with quite attractive PEs for the braver souls around.
You should be aware that a counties bourse it not soley relient on its domestic economy. Have a look at the companies in your FTSE 100...foreign earnings.
"Piece of string is too long...." says pundit.
Though I did ok by piling into RIO, XTA, oil & gas when the crash came a couple of years ago, and into the rights issues of the first two (on the basis that they didn't have too much debt and owned tangible assets that were out of favour but would still be needed when recovery came) I'm not at all convinced I can time things well.
Interesting how one can get a feeling based on recent experience, but which doesn't hold when you look at the data. For example if you drip feed your ISA in order to pound cost average (as I do), when is the best time to make the investment? If salaried, it is tempting to do it near the beginning of the month because you know there is money in your account. However, recently I've been getting the feeling that the market pops up a bit then. For example the FTSE100 has done so for the last 5 months, which is why I've got that impression, but then looking at the preceding 7 months it did the reverse. An argument for a simple investor to avoid trying to time the market.
It is also interesting to look at the ads in the financial pages of the papers on Saturday & small-investor-targeted supplements like the "Money" bits of the Times or FT on Saturday. I've grown to think that once there are lots of ads for the same kind of hot fund it is time to avoid - remembering all the dot com, property, emerging markets, the Fidelity man's china ads. I'm too young to remember the tulip and south sea ones. Doubtless you'll think of others.
Though I did ok by piling into RIO, XTA, oil & gas when the crash came a couple of years ago, and into the rights issues of the first two (on the basis that they didn't have too much debt and owned tangible assets that were out of favour but would still be needed when recovery came) I'm not at all convinced I can time things well.
Interesting how one can get a feeling based on recent experience, but which doesn't hold when you look at the data. For example if you drip feed your ISA in order to pound cost average (as I do), when is the best time to make the investment? If salaried, it is tempting to do it near the beginning of the month because you know there is money in your account. However, recently I've been getting the feeling that the market pops up a bit then. For example the FTSE100 has done so for the last 5 months, which is why I've got that impression, but then looking at the preceding 7 months it did the reverse. An argument for a simple investor to avoid trying to time the market.
It is also interesting to look at the ads in the financial pages of the papers on Saturday & small-investor-targeted supplements like the "Money" bits of the Times or FT on Saturday. I've grown to think that once there are lots of ads for the same kind of hot fund it is time to avoid - remembering all the dot com, property, emerging markets, the Fidelity man's china ads. I'm too young to remember the tulip and south sea ones. Doubtless you'll think of others.
Beardy10 said:
There will ALWAYS be someone who says stock markets are over valued by huge amounts....after all it's just there interpretation.
My personal view is that stock markets are currently over valued becuase the financial system is in meltdown.......
Yes, and its probably the people short selling My personal view is that stock markets are currently over valued becuase the financial system is in meltdown.......
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