When will we see the last manual?
When will we see the last manual?
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Discussion

Rawwr

Original Poster:

22,722 posts

255 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
The proliferation of smart-auto double-clutch 'boxes appears to be leading to it being the default choice. We saw them start to appear as options on supercars and then as the standard on supercars, followed by being an option on white goods and now seemingly standard with most manufacturers' performance models.

Are we really heading for a time when if you ask for a manual gearbox when ordering your car that it'll be a huge cost option and the salesman will look at you as if though you're a child molester?

S18DMW

19,743 posts

188 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
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I hope not. It will be a sad day when the manual gearbox is missing from a car even if it becomes the option rather than the default.

kambites

70,419 posts

242 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
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I'd guess it's got another 20 years of life left in budget cars, but I think it'll disappear from anything more expensive within the next five or ten.

kambites

70,419 posts

242 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
S18DMW said:
I hope not. It will be a sad day when the manual gearbox is missing from a car even if it becomes the option rather than the default.
It's a day we've already reached, in some parts of the market.

Rawwr

Original Poster:

22,722 posts

255 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
I think 20 years might be stretching it a bit. 20 years ago you could still happily buy new cars with a 4spd 'box.

Scuffers

20,887 posts

295 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
a lot of this is also driven by the EU emission test regime, much easier for a manufacture to get a lower g/km from an auto than a manual due to the way the test is performed - manual cars have their gear change points mandated at set speeds in the test, auto's (obviously).

this than creates a problem as the same car with a DSG or the live vs. it's manual version are then in two different tax bands.

As an example, Audi's S4 with DSG is 219g/km with manual 234g/km so from Band L (£260.00PA) to K (£445.00PA) as well as 33% vs. 35% Benefit in kind change.






mcflurry

9,184 posts

274 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
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Don't many Americanists already wonder what a "stick shift" is? wink

thinfourth2

32,414 posts

225 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
Yes a gearbox that costs more, has more moving parts, is harder to fix and more likely to assign the car to an early grave in a quest to be green.

Cactussed

5,352 posts

234 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
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When Haynes goes bust?

getmecoat

jayfrancis

439 posts

229 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
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It's happened with trucks already. 5 years ago all the trucks where I work were manuals, usually 12 or 16 gears with range changes and splitters.

Now our fleet is all auto. Much more user friendly and easier to drive. Coupled with cruise control you can just sit back and watch the scenery go by.

aka_kerrly

12,495 posts

231 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
thinfourth2 said:
Yes a gearbox that costs more, has more moving parts, is harder to fix and more likely to assign the car to an early grave in a quest to be green.
Exactly what I was thinking, in much the same way a lot of early Mondeos were scrapped due to the clutch being expensive and other newer diesels are being scrapped due to fuel pumps give it a few years an we will find people scrapping 2004> VW/Audi on the basis they will not pay £5k to replace the gearbox.

Indecently my father recently purchased a Audi TTS and went for the manual version not DSG and had to wait longer for delivery due to more dsg being available.

Scuffers

20,887 posts

295 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
aka_kerrly said:
give it a few years an we will find people scrapping 2004> VW/Audi on the basis they will not pay £5k to replace the gearbox.
already happening, VW mechatronic unit's are silly money

redgriff500

28,982 posts

284 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
aka_kerrly said:
give it a few years an we will find people scrapping 2004> VW/Audi on the basis they will not pay £5k to replace the gearbox.
This has been happening for years already.

Audi and many others won't sell parts, only complete Auto Gearboxes.

IIRC the box alone is £4,000 (guess how I know) my wife's car had done 170k so simply wasn't worth fixing.

Whilst you could argue 170k was beyond its design life, everything worked it was a nice car and did 43mpg.

Throwing a perfectly good car away - Yep that's the green way.

frown

SD1992

7,278 posts

179 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
aka_kerrly said:
Exactly what I was thinking, in much the same way a lot of early Mondeos were scrapped due to the clutch being expensive
I am not looking forward to this day... frown

I really hope manual gearboxes don't die off in favour of autos.

thinfourth2

32,414 posts

225 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
redgriff500 said:
This has been happening for years already.

Audi and many others won't sell parts, only complete Auto Gearboxes.

IIRC the box alone is £4,000 (guess how I know) my wife's car had done 170k so simply wasn't worth fixing.

Whilst you could argue 170k was beyond its design life, everything worked it was a nice car and did 43mpg.

Throwing a perfectly good car away - Yep that's the green way.

frown
Looking for a new car for the wife and i can see us either going for a brand new one with warranty etc or a 2 grand snotter which we throw away when it goes wrong

Rawwr

Original Poster:

22,722 posts

255 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
There's probably a decent argument to suggest that the cheap snotter market will be mostly <2003(ish) now based on repair/replacement costs. Which is green.

thinfourth2

32,414 posts

225 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
The current wife mobile is worth 4 grand and it needs a new turbo costing a grand

Great 25% repair costs make loosing 30% on a new car seem sensible just for the warranty

With a grands worth of snotter you bin it for any major bills

Meanwhile my distinctly ungreen 14 year old landrover which runs purely on biodiesel keeps going and has another 5 years before i need to replace the chassis which will give it another 30 years plus unless they ban it for being ungreen and i have to replace it every 6 years with a brand new car.

Someone should take some eco weenies and beat them over the head with a dictionary until they understand the word sustainable which they so love. Binning a car at 6 years old is not sustainable

Scuffers

20,887 posts

295 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
if you think about it, this is the same as has happened to white goods.

domestic stuff used to last for years, these days it's mostly 3-5 max, then scrap and replace.

yes, current fridges are more efficient in electric consumption, but in terms of the life of the fridge, it's got to be questionable.

kambites

70,419 posts

242 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
Interesting comparison. We had to replace our fridge recently; the old one was about 20 years old. I don't know how long the new one will last, but I bet it's not 20 years. The new one uses less than half as much power, but I don't really have a feeling for the environmental impact of creating and then decommissioning fridges in comparison to their electricity usage.

Besides, DSGs are worse from that point of view, because at least modern fridges are more efficient to run. They don't just fudge the test results to make them look more efficient.

Edited by kambites on Thursday 18th August 11:36

otolith

64,786 posts

225 months

Thursday 18th August 2011
quotequote all
I think the tipping point will be when it becomes the norm for new drivers to take their test in an automatic (and thus not to have a manual licence).