Discussion
With (most) banks shares pretty low right now, what are peoples opinions on them as a long term investment?
Take RBS for example, currently sitting around 23p.
I've not done any trading before but stick my savings in various places mostly low risk (bonds, ISAs etc.)
Would it be worth getting £500 worth of these as a bit of a punt?
Take RBS for example, currently sitting around 23p.
I've not done any trading before but stick my savings in various places mostly low risk (bonds, ISAs etc.)
Would it be worth getting £500 worth of these as a bit of a punt?
Barge pole right now...things are really starting to unwind already.
There will be a good time to buy and I think Barlcays are probably the best bet (HSBC are better run but won't be anywhere near as cheap)....pains me to say it but in these situations it's all about management and Barclays have the best management. They also have the best business mix of the "cheap" banks.
There will be a good time to buy and I think Barlcays are probably the best bet (HSBC are better run but won't be anywhere near as cheap)....pains me to say it but in these situations it's all about management and Barclays have the best management. They also have the best business mix of the "cheap" banks.
Beardy10 said:
Barge pole right now...things are really starting to unwind already.
There will be a good time to buy and I think Barlcays are probably the best bet (HSBC are better run but won't be anywhere near as cheap)....pains me to say it but in these situations it's all about management and Barclays have the best management. They also have the best business mix of the "cheap" banks.
I wouldn't.There will be a good time to buy and I think Barlcays are probably the best bet (HSBC are better run but won't be anywhere near as cheap)....pains me to say it but in these situations it's all about management and Barclays have the best management. They also have the best business mix of the "cheap" banks.
Barclays have far too much exposure to Spain/Greece etc, and if (when) it kicks off as is expected they will take it hard.
HSBC will have major issues with italy, same deal as with barclays.
RBS will likely take another nit as its not getting itself out of trouble well enough.
LBG, too big, will split. - that may be a good time to buy though.
how about google, with their new rival to facebook? :P (disclaimer: they may face monopoly issues soon)
The Jolly Todger said:
With (most) banks shares pretty low right now, what are peoples opinions on them as a long term investment?
Take RBS for example, currently sitting around 23p.
I've not done any trading before but stick my savings in various places mostly low risk (bonds, ISAs etc.)
Would it be worth getting £500 worth of these as a bit of a punt?
£500 means feck all in the markets...dont mean to be rude..Take RBS for example, currently sitting around 23p.
I've not done any trading before but stick my savings in various places mostly low risk (bonds, ISAs etc.)
Would it be worth getting £500 worth of these as a bit of a punt?
Banks are a poor investment...they will never reach the dizzy heights of £5/share again..
Problem is a lot of assets are held at Par when clearly the markets are saying some are only 40% or less than that.
So when people say bank capitalisation is less than book value, ask yourself just how honest those mark at par holdings are...
I think Morgan Stanley have 70% of the value of their capitalisation in Euro Sovereign debt for example..
(ie) Sort Eurozone issues out first then see whats good value.
So when people say bank capitalisation is less than book value, ask yourself just how honest those mark at par holdings are...
I think Morgan Stanley have 70% of the value of their capitalisation in Euro Sovereign debt for example..
(ie) Sort Eurozone issues out first then see whats good value.
jonah35 said:
DonkeyApple said:
Just sell and keep selling. No change in nearly 3 years. No sign this is going to change anytime soon.
Six weeks to save the Euro.
bank shares could be a pure gamble as no one knows what will happen, oil, healthcare etc could be a better bet.Six weeks to save the Euro.
From a short perspective there is no better sector.Every day I see retail punters buying banking stocks and it baffles me. We are looking at another recession, we have not even begun to unwind our excess credit and it doesn't look like we will be able to while growth stagnates or declines, unemployment is still falling, there is no wage inflation and we are talking about printing more money to shore up a financial system that could completely collapse on the back of the Euro which is a problem that could be resolved but not with the completely weak governance that exists.
There is not a single indicator on this planet that is yet pointing to banking stocks in the West being a buy. Everything is pointing short.
There are momentary blips where traders can take advantage but downside risk is magnitudes less than upside so no pro trader would buy on the upswings but just wait for the peak and sell into the next bout of weakness.
At some point the bankins sector will be a raging buy and it will be free money for the long side but there is nothing to indicate that this event is anywhere near the horizon.
You are probably correct in your other choice of sectors as well. Retail might be the next big short to keep an eye on.
Well, I'm continuing to buy DB shares through work. It's a play on some more of the big boys going down in the next few months, and our strong business model in APAC which is based on business banking as much as pushing funny money around derivative transactions.
Or should I just set fire to my £100 a month investment?
Or should I just set fire to my £100 a month investment?
F458 said:
F458 said:
If you really want banks then the only one I would go near right now is Barclays. About £1.39 at close today.
Barclays £1.64 today 
But other banks have the same % increase over this period: 113%
LBG closed at 32.4 on the 22nd, and is at 36.59
Barclays closed at 144.8 on 22nd, and is at 164
IMO bank shares are still a short term buy and sell, there is still too much bad news to come. Unless you buy now and plan to hold say 3 years plus.
However there is money to be made on the volatility, proving you are brave, and willing to turn it into a long term play should it go south quickly.
I have bought and sold barclays 4 times in the past 6 weeks, and made some decent money. Had i left what i invested in a bank account it would have earned nothing.
There are (again imo) cheap stocks out there, aviva was very cheap last week, was showing a possible divi yield of 10% at one point.
However there is money to be made on the volatility, proving you are brave, and willing to turn it into a long term play should it go south quickly.
I have bought and sold barclays 4 times in the past 6 weeks, and made some decent money. Had i left what i invested in a bank account it would have earned nothing.
There are (again imo) cheap stocks out there, aviva was very cheap last week, was showing a possible divi yield of 10% at one point.
DonkeyApple said:
Depends on whether you are long or short From a short perspective there is no better sector.
Every day I see retail punters buying banking stocks and it baffles me. We are looking at another recession, we have not even begun to unwind our excess credit and it doesn't look like we will be able to while growth stagnates or declines, unemployment is still falling, there is no wage inflation and we are talking about printing more money to shore up a financial system that could completely collapse on the back of the Euro which is a problem that could be resolved but not with the completely weak governance that exists.
There is not a single indicator on this planet that is yet pointing to banking stocks in the West being a buy. Everything is pointing short.
There are momentary blips where traders can take advantage but downside risk is magnitudes less than upside so no pro trader would buy on the upswings but just wait for the peak and sell into the next bout of weakness.
At some point the bankins sector will be a raging buy and it will be free money for the long side but there is nothing to indicate that this event is anywhere near the horizon.
You are probably correct in your other choice of sectors as well. Retail might be the next big short to keep an eye
on.
Donkey if you had cash at the moment where would you put it if you had already maxes your cash ISA s ? From a short perspective there is no better sector.Every day I see retail punters buying banking stocks and it baffles me. We are looking at another recession, we have not even begun to unwind our excess credit and it doesn't look like we will be able to while growth stagnates or declines, unemployment is still falling, there is no wage inflation and we are talking about printing more money to shore up a financial system that could completely collapse on the back of the Euro which is a problem that could be resolved but not with the completely weak governance that exists.
There is not a single indicator on this planet that is yet pointing to banking stocks in the West being a buy. Everything is pointing short.
There are momentary blips where traders can take advantage but downside risk is magnitudes less than upside so no pro trader would buy on the upswings but just wait for the peak and sell into the next bout of weakness.
At some point the bankins sector will be a raging buy and it will be free money for the long side but there is nothing to indicate that this event is anywhere near the horizon.
You are probably correct in your other choice of sectors as well. Retail might be the next big short to keep an eye
on.
robsti said:
Donkey if you had cash at the moment where would you put it if you had already maxes your cash ISA s ?
Tough to answer as everyone has different objectives and levels of risk.I actually went to cash in Sep/Oct 2006. I had looked at what I did for a living, how I earned my income, where I lived and come to the descision that if anything bad happened in terms of my line of work then it would also mean that my investments would be decimated at exactly the time that you would need to draw down on them. The best option for me was cash. Pension, ISAs, cars and non 'home' properties all went to cash. My pension is split 90/10 between two ringfenced structures and the smaller pot is used for high leverage trading aiming for overall returns in excess of 10% of the total fund value per annum. I don't have any ISAs as they offer nothing for investment (no relief on divis and personal CGT allowances cover any structure cashing in and the fees are a scandal) and for trading you have spread betting.
Gold is also a massive scandal. Unregulated and the home of charletans. Any 'inflation' is clearly already factored in to the price, in Britain we don't need a transportable asset (this isn't yet the 3rd world) and the entry and exit fees are more shocking than a forex desk at a provincal airport.
If people are investing in gold for inflation protection they are going to get a nasty surprise and if they are doing it to protect their money from a doomsday scenario then they are also in for a nasty surprise as the physical won't be there, if it ever was, when they go and ask for it. It's also worth thinking about how you could buy a tin of beans from your bunker with a Krugerand
People are being conned/duped out of millions by the usual suspects praying on the fear of the weak, elderly or lacking in specific knowledge. If you were going to set up a Ponzi scheme today, don't you think that selling invisible 'gold' in an unregulated environement, via an offshore entity, to scared people a good place to start?If someone wants to store up assets for a doomsday scenario then they just need to think what products would be needed by a population post fiscal apocolypse and can be stored easily, doesn't take up too much space and can be subdivided into relevant parcels. Then they just need to go out into the garden and shoot themselves as it's all pointless.
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