Supergroup / Superdry
Discussion
£9m due to "warehouse issues" - Assuming 100% markup over internet pricing, £130 for a coat, cost price £65, that's 138,000 coats either stolen, damaged, or over-ordered. If it's some of their cheaper tat then it's even more stuff. Either way someone running that warehouse has been very naughty.
Something not right management cashed in £6 million worth of share's 10 days ago.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/re...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/re...
Wow so £9m they thought they had in prime stock didn't actually exist and the high value if the company when this stock was included persuaded 20 senior managers to cash in. This was very lucky as just days later they "discovered" the £9m hole.
Those managers were lucky to sell when they did. (sic)
Those managers were lucky to sell when they did. (sic)
I don't know much about this but in general the multiples applied to Superdry were insane. I did look at shorting them at about £13 but the concern was lack of liquidity, after I looked they hit £17 approx so any sensible dhort would have closed the position. Lets face it, the barriers to entry aren't high, a Tee shirt with a logo but good luck to the owners as they did a good job hyping the whole thing.
DSLiverpool said:
Slipped / Lost 30% today on a "minor" storage issue !?!
Anyone know more ? Looks solid to me and worth a punt
Anyone know more ? Looks solid to me and worth a punt
I know the company well, having invested at the IPO and in and out many times subsequently.
Essentially the problem is that the management team now have far less than zero credibility with investors.
The company looks cheap on consensus numbers a couple of years out.
For example, if this were a truly one-off event then the company is on c.8x Apr-13 PE.
However, the number of mis-steps from these guys is astonishing:
- Guiding to a gross margin hit 2 years before it "might" have impacted their results.
- The CFO buying stock ahead of a significant sales slowdown.
- The sales slowdown owing to not stocking for the "early" summer.
- This latest profit warning on IT systems that royally screwed up stocks for A/W.
- The 20 management members selling a week before a profit warning.
So do you buy the boring, no growth, solid dividend highly credible management team of say Next or do you punt on a management team who appear to be unable to tell that their entire UK store portfolio is out of pink polo shirts in large FOR TWO WEEKS?
Perhaps the most egregious screw up from these guys is that they STILL don't have a professional investor relations team - you know, the people who explain what it is that the "visionary" management are up to when Julian's effusive superlatives are incomprehensible to your average analyst.
So even more than usual, caveat emptor.
That said, I LOVE companies like this because I am so lazy I happily put a small amount that I am prepared to lose with them and either it halves or it doubles. I just don't look for a couple of years, unless the investment case dramatically changes. Here the investment case is simple - fast growth run by muppets.
Essentially the problem is that the management team now have far less than zero credibility with investors.
The company looks cheap on consensus numbers a couple of years out.
For example, if this were a truly one-off event then the company is on c.8x Apr-13 PE.
However, the number of mis-steps from these guys is astonishing:
- Guiding to a gross margin hit 2 years before it "might" have impacted their results.
- The CFO buying stock ahead of a significant sales slowdown.
- The sales slowdown owing to not stocking for the "early" summer.
- This latest profit warning on IT systems that royally screwed up stocks for A/W.
- The 20 management members selling a week before a profit warning.
So do you buy the boring, no growth, solid dividend highly credible management team of say Next or do you punt on a management team who appear to be unable to tell that their entire UK store portfolio is out of pink polo shirts in large FOR TWO WEEKS?
Perhaps the most egregious screw up from these guys is that they STILL don't have a professional investor relations team - you know, the people who explain what it is that the "visionary" management are up to when Julian's effusive superlatives are incomprehensible to your average analyst.
So even more than usual, caveat emptor.
That said, I LOVE companies like this because I am so lazy I happily put a small amount that I am prepared to lose with them and either it halves or it doubles. I just don't look for a couple of years, unless the investment case dramatically changes. Here the investment case is simple - fast growth run by muppets.
Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff