The Unofficial Betting Odds thread for South Korean GP.
Discussion
Having received a whole bunch of disapproving posts ~ well one actually 
~ for daring to mention betting and odds on the "Official" Japanese GP thread, I'm starting a fresh thread for Korea for those who may have an interest in such things... 
Have had a look at the offers available from some of the top on-line bookmakers, one thing is very obvious. The days of 16-1 and 20-1 a Button win are a long fading memory . He's as short as 3-1 behind favourite Vettel who is geneerally available @ 6-5 ( 1.2 to 1 ) and 5-4 ( 1.25 to 1 ) which on form is understandable. Button can be had at 4-1 and his team mate Lewis @ 9-2 ( 4.5 to 1 ).
Alonso and Webber around 5 and 6 to 1. Bit skinny those in my opinion.
The two Mercedes GP drivers are available both @ 100-1 .... a few races ago, Rosberg the younger Merc driver, was always much shorter than the old man of the F1 tracks...not now. MSC was also avaolable at good odds to finish and qualify better than his team mate and he's done that a few times now as I knwo well having had some nice touches when he did. Those days are now long gone and their odds are fairly even now as obviously their results are also fairly equal.
I have thrown a few quid on small each way bets on both Mercs as I have a hunch a podium is always on the cards, particularly if it rains. If after qualifying longer odds are available each way 1-2-3 I may throw away some more on the mercs each way, particularly if there's a chance of rain come the race.
Button, who to some mindsets here on PH can only drive well in adverse conditions (
... anyway, surely a sign of true class and ability .. .. ) has, IIRC, posted fastest lap for the last two 'dry' races. That's no coincidence either. Vettel I feel now knows how close the McLarens' race pace can be as the season ends, particularly in Button's hands ~ hence witness his OTT move to the dirty side to negate Button's faster get away. If Hamilton uses the same level of control in Korea as he did in Monza with that interesting session with Schumacher, he must be in with a good chance. The car is obviiously good enough in race pace trim as Button and he showed in the qualifying for the last race, very close to the RBs which necessitated Vettel going into a ragged 10/10ths Q3 to finish only 1/100th of a second in front of Button with Hamilton close behind despite lack of fimal Q3 attempt... self-inflicted in my opinion. That's all based on the evidence available to me via the net and my TV screen.
As always, my more serious wagers will wait until a few mintues befor the five red lights appear on Sunday. If there's something that looks like exceptional value, I may have a more serious bet, or not. I shall play up some of my winnigs on Button if he qualifies a tad tardy and so his odds become bigger or, even if he qualifies well and is still at worthwhile odds.
We shall see. Roll on.
.
~ for daring to mention betting and odds on the "Official" Japanese GP thread, I'm starting a fresh thread for Korea for those who may have an interest in such things... Have had a look at the offers available from some of the top on-line bookmakers, one thing is very obvious. The days of 16-1 and 20-1 a Button win are a long fading memory . He's as short as 3-1 behind favourite Vettel who is geneerally available @ 6-5 ( 1.2 to 1 ) and 5-4 ( 1.25 to 1 ) which on form is understandable. Button can be had at 4-1 and his team mate Lewis @ 9-2 ( 4.5 to 1 ).
Alonso and Webber around 5 and 6 to 1. Bit skinny those in my opinion.
The two Mercedes GP drivers are available both @ 100-1 .... a few races ago, Rosberg the younger Merc driver, was always much shorter than the old man of the F1 tracks...not now. MSC was also avaolable at good odds to finish and qualify better than his team mate and he's done that a few times now as I knwo well having had some nice touches when he did. Those days are now long gone and their odds are fairly even now as obviously their results are also fairly equal.
I have thrown a few quid on small each way bets on both Mercs as I have a hunch a podium is always on the cards, particularly if it rains. If after qualifying longer odds are available each way 1-2-3 I may throw away some more on the mercs each way, particularly if there's a chance of rain come the race.
Button, who to some mindsets here on PH can only drive well in adverse conditions (
... anyway, surely a sign of true class and ability .. .. ) has, IIRC, posted fastest lap for the last two 'dry' races. That's no coincidence either. Vettel I feel now knows how close the McLarens' race pace can be as the season ends, particularly in Button's hands ~ hence witness his OTT move to the dirty side to negate Button's faster get away. If Hamilton uses the same level of control in Korea as he did in Monza with that interesting session with Schumacher, he must be in with a good chance. The car is obviiously good enough in race pace trim as Button and he showed in the qualifying for the last race, very close to the RBs which necessitated Vettel going into a ragged 10/10ths Q3 to finish only 1/100th of a second in front of Button with Hamilton close behind despite lack of fimal Q3 attempt... self-inflicted in my opinion. That's all based on the evidence available to me via the net and my TV screen.As always, my more serious wagers will wait until a few mintues befor the five red lights appear on Sunday. If there's something that looks like exceptional value, I may have a more serious bet, or not. I shall play up some of my winnigs on Button if he qualifies a tad tardy and so his odds become bigger or, even if he qualifies well and is still at worthwhile odds.
We shall see. Roll on.
.
MGJohn said:
Having received a whole bunch of disapproving posts ~ well one actually ~ for daring to mention betting and odds on the "Official" Japanese GP thread, I'm starting a fresh thread for Korea for those who may have an interest in such things...
I would say 'ignore them', except it's more convenient to have your tips & thoughts without having to wade through pages of chatter... ~ for daring to mention betting and odds on the "Official" Japanese GP thread, I'm starting a fresh thread for Korea for those who may have an interest in such things... I for one am always interested to hear what you have to say about F1 betting (even if my efforts have been not entirely successful
)Castrol Craig said:
I got 60/1 on webber podium before Japan, happily took that.
Yes, there's some excellent value about if you have a good grasp of F1 rather simply being a fanboy and know what to look for. Team mate match bets in qualifying and the race are my speciality. The McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari teams have provided the occasional excellent match bet value. Even the unfortunate Massa sometimes finishes better that Alonso, despite "Alonso ~ is ~ faster ~ than ~ yow" mallarkey...
Some years ago, when I rarely bet on F1 and Jenson Button had never stood on the top spot of the F1 podium, out of the blue my on-line bookie invited me to have a bet @ 20-1 that he would do so in any of the remaining races that season. So, I threw away a few quid on that and guess what, Button won his first F1 race in the very next event ...
I've been playing with the bookies money ever since on Jenson and in 2009, prior to the first race, I had a hunch that the Brawn-Button combination should show some reaults and had a decent bet on both him and his team mate eachway for the WDC. Won on both bets as Ruebens finished 3rd.
You can have a lot of fun if you dont go silly. I'd rather have a sporting bet or two for say forty quid than blow that down the pub with a few rounds....
( just joking)
Watching P2 on Freeview Channel 301 right now..... and the "going" in Korea is wet.
So, are all bets off ...
Hurried readjustment of wager strategy definitely on the cards...
Vettel and Button in 1 and 2 as I type this..
Who would have guessed that ...
Button to base..
EDIT to add @ 0612:
Button now fastest.
So, are all bets off ...
Hurried readjustment of wager strategy definitely on the cards...
Vettel and Button in 1 and 2 as I type this..
Who would have guessed that ...
Button to base..
Jenson Button said:
I'm really struggling with the front tyres
..EDIT to add @ 0612:
Button now fastest.
Some say said:
Good to see the Hamilton of 2007 return ...
Much prefer to see the continuing emergence of the 2011 Hamilton. A cooler, considered, controlled Hamilton achieved Pole today, not the Hamilton of old. Those Hamilton laps today were pure class. Made Vettel's attempts look ragged in comparison. Now there's a thing.... Meet the new Hamilton, better than the old.
Whether this much different approach is self generated or someone he trusts has marked his card, who knows, but one thing is certain, it now looks like being productive and provided there is not a return of the Hamilton of old, expect even better things from him from here on.
This sudden improved form of Hamilton's now see's him bookies' race favourite in front of Vettel.
Here's one of the leading on-line bookies' odds for the race: As the say
Leading Bookie said:
SIX TO FOUR THE FIELD
Race Winner6/4 Lewis Hamilton
7/4 Sebastian Vettel
7/2 Jenson Button
10/1 Mark Webber
14/1 Fernando Alonso
50/1 Felipe Massa
100/1 Nico Rosberg
200/1 Michael Schumacher
300/1 Vitaly Petrov
300/1 Paul Di Resta
500/1 Adrian Sutil
750/1 Bruno Senna
1000/1 and more the rest ~~ EACH WAY 1/5th ODDS places 1-2-3.
..
MSC @ 200-1 ~ that's 40-1 for a podium.
Who likes the occasional long shot?
Guilty M'Lud...
..
I have placed bets on the following:
Hamilton finish pos 3-5@ 5:1 Reason=tyres
Lap 1 leader JB @ 8:1 Reason= good start last weekend and LH and SV next to each other.
Result 1stJB 2ndFA @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA 2ndJB @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA @ 11:1 Reason= easiest car on tyres
Win and Fast Lap JB @ 16:1 Reason= Same as last week end!!
Also had button down for a hat-trick. Ooops.
We'll see.
Steve
Hamilton finish pos 3-5@ 5:1 Reason=tyres
Lap 1 leader JB @ 8:1 Reason= good start last weekend and LH and SV next to each other.
Result 1stJB 2ndFA @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA 2ndJB @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA @ 11:1 Reason= easiest car on tyres
Win and Fast Lap JB @ 16:1 Reason= Same as last week end!!
Also had button down for a hat-trick. Ooops.
We'll see.
Steve
stevesingo said:
I have placed bets on the following:
Hamilton finish pos 3-5@ 5:1 Reason=tyres
Lap 1 leader JB @ 8:1 Reason= good start last weekend and LH and SV next to each other.
Result 1stJB 2ndFA @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA 2ndJB @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA @ 11:1 Reason= easiest car on tyres
Win and Fast Lap JB @ 16:1 Reason= Same as last week end!!
Also had button down for a hat-trick. Ooops.
We'll see.
Steve
Your theory and reasoning are very sound Steve. I have yet to have any serious bets and will not do so until about 1/2 hour before the off when we can see how the weather looks like shaping up for the race. A sudden change in weather can upset all bets from the race winner, safety car deployment to the number of finishers.Hamilton finish pos 3-5@ 5:1 Reason=tyres
Lap 1 leader JB @ 8:1 Reason= good start last weekend and LH and SV next to each other.
Result 1stJB 2ndFA @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA 2ndJB @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA @ 11:1 Reason= easiest car on tyres
Win and Fast Lap JB @ 16:1 Reason= Same as last week end!!
Also had button down for a hat-trick. Ooops.
We'll see.
Steve
There again, will the 2011 version of Lewis H play a blinder tomorrow or return to his previous incarnation ... tough call ...
Good luck.
I got reasonable post-qualifying odds of 5.0 on Button. He's down to 4.3 now, but I'll stick with it, rather than selling out. Like MGJohn says, the days of silly prices for Button are long gone, and deservedly so. Indeed, the prices in general have settled down to sensible levels. Earlier in the season, there was easy money to be made on points-scoring places for the leading drivers, or getting through to Q3, but no longer. Rosberg to get a point at 1.26 is shorter than I feel he should be, for example.
FAIL
stevesingo said:
I have placed bets on the following:
Hamilton finish pos 3-5@ 5:1 Reason=tyres
Lap 1 leader JB @ 8:1 Reason= good start last weekend and LH and SV next to each other.
Result 1stJB 2ndFA @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA 2ndJB @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA @ 11:1 Reason= easiest car on tyres
Win and Fast Lap JB @ 16:1 Reason= Same as last week end!!
Also had button down for a hat-trick. Ooops.
We'll see.
Steve
Hamilton finish pos 3-5@ 5:1 Reason=tyres
Lap 1 leader JB @ 8:1 Reason= good start last weekend and LH and SV next to each other.
Result 1stJB 2ndFA @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA 2ndJB @ 66:1 Reason= Best tyre manager and easiest car on tyres
Result 1stFA @ 11:1 Reason= easiest car on tyres
Win and Fast Lap JB @ 16:1 Reason= Same as last week end!!
Also had button down for a hat-trick. Ooops.
We'll see.
Steve
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