Could Germany and France join to form a mini-Eurozone?
Discussion
crofty1984 said:
Germany - A nation of polite people
France - A nation of rude people
If my thin understanding of particle physics Re: matter and antimatter is correct, surely if they come together they'll annihilate each other?
They've tried a few times over the last few hundred years. For some reason we always end up going in and separating them!France - A nation of rude people
If my thin understanding of particle physics Re: matter and antimatter is correct, surely if they come together they'll annihilate each other?
crofty1984 said:
Germany - A nation of polite people
France - A nation of rude people
If my thin understanding of particle physics Re: matter and antimatter is correct, surely if they come together they'll annihilate each other?
.....I have met many rude Germans....and also many polite French......so that's bollix.France - A nation of rude people
If my thin understanding of particle physics Re: matter and antimatter is correct, surely if they come together they'll annihilate each other?
There is no future for a common currency involving Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece in conjunction with Northern Europe.
This is not rocket science. The EEC was set up as a war reparation mechanism to kick in after Germany got back on its feet through Marshall Aid and their own hard work and ability, and to tie these two countries closely together so further conflict was unlikely.
De Gaulle did not want Britain to join as he knew that would upset the applecart. In the end it has been upset by an overambitious attempt to unite so many disparate countries under a single currency, in the delusion that the economic systems of all of these countries would converge.
If Britain could not compete on level terms with Germany, what chance is there that Italy or Greece could. This could only be done by ludicrous optimism and fraud. Which duly happened. The simple fact however is that they received considerable largesse, which created, for a while, the impression that they had become economic powerhouses (viz the Celtic Tiger). More importantly, the understanding that the EU, ie Germany, stood behind them, created a situation where they could borrow enormous sums at unrealistically low rates.
There are the following ways out of this.
1 - The 'soft' countries exit the Eurozone. This is the correct route, because only by having their own currencies can they price themselves correctly in the international market. This would actually help these countries, because they would instantly become competitive again. The major obstacle to this is that the lenders will inevitably suffer, maybe disastrously, and these countries will find it hard to borrow again.
2 - The euro splits into two currencies - soft and hard. This is not going to happen because none of the 'soft' countries will be prepared to share a currency with each other.
3 - Germany raises domestic taxes to crippling levels and underwrites the Euro debts of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain and ultimately France. This is almost guaranteed to lead to a rise in German Nationalism, and one sympathises. very unlikely.
4 - The EU introduces penal financial transactions tax and uses the funds to build up the EFSF. This will result in Britain leaving the EU.
5 - Germany allows the ECB to inflate and devalue the Euro to solve the problems. This will solve the immediate problem, but will make holders of Euros and Euro bonds unhappy. It will also make the German electorate, many of whom have considerable savings, on which the traditional stability of Germany is partly based, f
king furious. It will help Germany in a spooky way, because it will make their products cheaper globally. It is however only a temporary solution, because it has moral hazard built into it, and it does not solve the fundamental problem, which is that the 'soft' countries cannot rid themselves of endemic corruption, never mind compete with Germany on level terms. It could also lead to hyper inflation. How the German people will react to having their currency inflated and being robbed of their savings, is also a very interesting question. What you are doing here, as with all political chicanery, is rewarding vice and penalising virtue. We have become used to that in the UK. Do that in Germany, and you subvert the entire national ethos.
6 - Germany takes over the running of the 'soft' countries. While it is in some ways an ideal solution, and one which the residents of these countries might actually welcome, it is subject to the political objection that it was tried from 39-45 and failed.
If the EU do not take one of the above routes soon, the whole Euro structure will collapse because it will become obvious that only the Germans, the Dutch and the Scandinavians are capable of standing on their own feet, and that in reality France in particular is almost as bad, and, crucially, that there is not actually enough money in Europe to bail out ANY of the larger countries, never mind all of them. The whole confidence trick will be exposed. At that point we will be past reverting to national currencies, we will be reverting to gold.
This is not rocket science. The EEC was set up as a war reparation mechanism to kick in after Germany got back on its feet through Marshall Aid and their own hard work and ability, and to tie these two countries closely together so further conflict was unlikely.
De Gaulle did not want Britain to join as he knew that would upset the applecart. In the end it has been upset by an overambitious attempt to unite so many disparate countries under a single currency, in the delusion that the economic systems of all of these countries would converge.
If Britain could not compete on level terms with Germany, what chance is there that Italy or Greece could. This could only be done by ludicrous optimism and fraud. Which duly happened. The simple fact however is that they received considerable largesse, which created, for a while, the impression that they had become economic powerhouses (viz the Celtic Tiger). More importantly, the understanding that the EU, ie Germany, stood behind them, created a situation where they could borrow enormous sums at unrealistically low rates.
There are the following ways out of this.
1 - The 'soft' countries exit the Eurozone. This is the correct route, because only by having their own currencies can they price themselves correctly in the international market. This would actually help these countries, because they would instantly become competitive again. The major obstacle to this is that the lenders will inevitably suffer, maybe disastrously, and these countries will find it hard to borrow again.
2 - The euro splits into two currencies - soft and hard. This is not going to happen because none of the 'soft' countries will be prepared to share a currency with each other.
3 - Germany raises domestic taxes to crippling levels and underwrites the Euro debts of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain and ultimately France. This is almost guaranteed to lead to a rise in German Nationalism, and one sympathises. very unlikely.
4 - The EU introduces penal financial transactions tax and uses the funds to build up the EFSF. This will result in Britain leaving the EU.
5 - Germany allows the ECB to inflate and devalue the Euro to solve the problems. This will solve the immediate problem, but will make holders of Euros and Euro bonds unhappy. It will also make the German electorate, many of whom have considerable savings, on which the traditional stability of Germany is partly based, f
king furious. It will help Germany in a spooky way, because it will make their products cheaper globally. It is however only a temporary solution, because it has moral hazard built into it, and it does not solve the fundamental problem, which is that the 'soft' countries cannot rid themselves of endemic corruption, never mind compete with Germany on level terms. It could also lead to hyper inflation. How the German people will react to having their currency inflated and being robbed of their savings, is also a very interesting question. What you are doing here, as with all political chicanery, is rewarding vice and penalising virtue. We have become used to that in the UK. Do that in Germany, and you subvert the entire national ethos.6 - Germany takes over the running of the 'soft' countries. While it is in some ways an ideal solution, and one which the residents of these countries might actually welcome, it is subject to the political objection that it was tried from 39-45 and failed.
If the EU do not take one of the above routes soon, the whole Euro structure will collapse because it will become obvious that only the Germans, the Dutch and the Scandinavians are capable of standing on their own feet, and that in reality France in particular is almost as bad, and, crucially, that there is not actually enough money in Europe to bail out ANY of the larger countries, never mind all of them. The whole confidence trick will be exposed. At that point we will be past reverting to national currencies, we will be reverting to gold.
Edited by cardigankid on Thursday 10th November 14:06
cardigankid said:
There is no future for a common currency involving Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece in conjunction with Northern Europe.
This is not rocket science. The EEC was set up as a war reparation mechanism to kick in after Germany got back on its feet through Marshall Aid and their own hard work and ability, and to tie these two countries closely together so further conflict was unlikely.
De Gaulle did not want Britain to join as he knew that would upset the applecart. In the end it has been upset by an overambitious attempt to unite so many disparate countries under a single currency, in the delusion that the economic systems of all of these countries would converge.
If Britain could not compete on level terms with Germany, what chance is there that Italy or Greece could. This could only be done by ludicrous optimism and fraud. Which duly happened. The simple fact however is that they received considerable largesse, which created, for a while, the impression that they had become economic powerhouses (viz the Celtic Tiger). More importantly, the understanding that the EU, ie Germany, stood behind them, created a situation where they could borrow enormous sums at unrealistically low rates. This has also become a matter of inflated political egos.
There are three ways out of this.
1 - The 'soft' countries exit the Eurozone. This is the correct route, because only by having their own currencies can they price themselves correctly in the international market. This would actually help these countries, because they would instantly become competitive again. The major obstacle to this is that the lenders will inevitably suffer, maybe disastrously, and these countries will find it hard to borrow again.
2 - The euro splits into two currencies - soft and hard. This is not going to happen because none of the 'soft' countries will be prepared to share a currency with each other.
3 - Germany raises domestic taxes to crippling levels and underwrites the Euro debts of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain and ultimately France. This is almost guaranteed to lead to a rise in German Nationalism, and one sympathises. very unlikely.
4 - The EU introduces penal financial transactions tax and uses the funds to build up the EFSF. This will result in Britain leaving the EU.
5 - Germany allows the ECB to inflate and devalue the Euro to solve the problems. This will solve the immediate problem, but will make holders of Euros and Euro bonds unhappy. It will also make the German electorate, many of whom have considerable savings, on which the traditional stability of Germany is partly based, fking furious. It will help Germany in a spooky way, because it will make their products cheaper globally. It is however only a temporary solution, because it has moral hazard built into it, and it does not solve the fundamental problem, which is that the 'soft' countries cannot rid themselves of endemic corruption, never mind compete with Germany on level terms. It could also lead to hyper inflation. How the German people will react to having their currency inflated and being robbed of their savings, is also a very interesting question.
6 - Germany takes over the running of the 'soft' countries. While it is in some ways an ideal solution, and one which the residents of these countries might actually welcome, it is subject to the political objection that it was tried from 39-45 and failed.
If the EU do not take one of the above routes soon, the whole Euro structure will collapse because it will become obvious that only the Germans, the Dutch and the Scandinavians are capable of standing on their own feet, and that in reality France in particular is almost as bad, and, crucially, that there is not actually enough money in Europe to bail out ANY of the larger countries, never mind all of them. The whole confidence trick will be exposed. At that point we will be past reverting to national currencies,
we will be reverting to gold.
Great post... thank you for that This is not rocket science. The EEC was set up as a war reparation mechanism to kick in after Germany got back on its feet through Marshall Aid and their own hard work and ability, and to tie these two countries closely together so further conflict was unlikely.
De Gaulle did not want Britain to join as he knew that would upset the applecart. In the end it has been upset by an overambitious attempt to unite so many disparate countries under a single currency, in the delusion that the economic systems of all of these countries would converge.
If Britain could not compete on level terms with Germany, what chance is there that Italy or Greece could. This could only be done by ludicrous optimism and fraud. Which duly happened. The simple fact however is that they received considerable largesse, which created, for a while, the impression that they had become economic powerhouses (viz the Celtic Tiger). More importantly, the understanding that the EU, ie Germany, stood behind them, created a situation where they could borrow enormous sums at unrealistically low rates. This has also become a matter of inflated political egos.
There are three ways out of this.
1 - The 'soft' countries exit the Eurozone. This is the correct route, because only by having their own currencies can they price themselves correctly in the international market. This would actually help these countries, because they would instantly become competitive again. The major obstacle to this is that the lenders will inevitably suffer, maybe disastrously, and these countries will find it hard to borrow again.
2 - The euro splits into two currencies - soft and hard. This is not going to happen because none of the 'soft' countries will be prepared to share a currency with each other.
3 - Germany raises domestic taxes to crippling levels and underwrites the Euro debts of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain and ultimately France. This is almost guaranteed to lead to a rise in German Nationalism, and one sympathises. very unlikely.
4 - The EU introduces penal financial transactions tax and uses the funds to build up the EFSF. This will result in Britain leaving the EU.
5 - Germany allows the ECB to inflate and devalue the Euro to solve the problems. This will solve the immediate problem, but will make holders of Euros and Euro bonds unhappy. It will also make the German electorate, many of whom have considerable savings, on which the traditional stability of Germany is partly based, f
king furious. It will help Germany in a spooky way, because it will make their products cheaper globally. It is however only a temporary solution, because it has moral hazard built into it, and it does not solve the fundamental problem, which is that the 'soft' countries cannot rid themselves of endemic corruption, never mind compete with Germany on level terms. It could also lead to hyper inflation. How the German people will react to having their currency inflated and being robbed of their savings, is also a very interesting question.6 - Germany takes over the running of the 'soft' countries. While it is in some ways an ideal solution, and one which the residents of these countries might actually welcome, it is subject to the political objection that it was tried from 39-45 and failed.
If the EU do not take one of the above routes soon, the whole Euro structure will collapse because it will become obvious that only the Germans, the Dutch and the Scandinavians are capable of standing on their own feet, and that in reality France in particular is almost as bad, and, crucially, that there is not actually enough money in Europe to bail out ANY of the larger countries, never mind all of them. The whole confidence trick will be exposed. At that point we will be past reverting to national currencies,
we will be reverting to gold.
Being some one that inhabits the Uk and the Eurozone
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