Thomas Cook shares, worth a cheeky punt?
Discussion
I'm no expert but i'd avoid. Their business model is coming under pressure from both ends: high street shops have competition from the net and their airline operation is having to compete with the low cost carriers. This added to the negative publicity in the press and peoples shrinking spending power means that I can't see them coming out of this in their current form.
It's a shame because I believe that there is still a place for good old fashioned travel agents, but probably not in the mass market that TC operate in.
It's a shame because I believe that there is still a place for good old fashioned travel agents, but probably not in the mass market that TC operate in.
Yeh, only gone up 27% so far this morning! A high risk but possibly high return, although what's the saying? Even a dead cat can bounce
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AuoLV18SB5wBe35...
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AuoLV18SB5wBe35...
Put it like this the debt markets currently value Thomas Cook debt at around 30 pence in the pound....i.e. the banks and institurions have lent them £1bil and think they will only get £300mil. That implies the shares are worthless and a massive punt at this stage which has to be the right conclusion
If they breach covenants the banks take control of the business an equity is worthless.
Like so many businesses it is yesterday's business model and they haven't moved with the times.
If they breach covenants the banks take control of the business an equity is worthless.
Like so many businesses it is yesterday's business model and they haven't moved with the times.
Inkyfingers said:
I'm no expert but i'd avoid. Their business model is coming under pressure from both ends: high street shops have competition from the net and their airline operation is having to compete with the low cost carriers. This added to the negative publicity in the press and peoples shrinking spending power means that I can't see them coming out of this in their current form.
It's a shame because I believe that there is still a place for good old fashioned travel agents, but probably not in the mass market that TC operate in.
Although its good to have an old fashioned travel agent, they would be better moving to online and getting rid of the shops IMO. Perhaps keeping a couple of the larger ones in more prominent locations, large shopping centre/arcades etc. I would bet that the majority of their sales come from the web rather than the shops themselves.It's a shame because I believe that there is still a place for good old fashioned travel agents, but probably not in the mass market that TC operate in.
SB10 said:
Although its good to have an old fashioned travel agent, they would be better moving to online and getting rid of the shops IMO. Perhaps keeping a couple of the larger ones in more prominent locations, large shopping centre/arcades etc. I would bet that the majority of their sales come from the web rather than the shops themselves.
Agreed, there are obviously companies already offering this service, but in my opinion none have managed to penetrate the market that well and build good enough brand recognition. I would imagine that the market for bespoke holidays for those spending £5,000+ is still a good place to be, but the margins on the cheapo £500 family holiday to Benidorm must be tiny. My parents are retired and their big luxury is holidays; they basically walk into their local travel agent, spec the exact holiday they want and aren't too worried about the cost. I know that times are tough but there are still plenty of people out there like that if you can get their attention. The problem for TC and other high street agents is that their staff are not that knowledgeable, we wanted to book a last minute holiday last year and went into a TC store, the girl was useless and didn't have a clue about the nature of the resorts she was offering to send us to or what we could do when we were there. Travel agents are only useful if they have enough knowledge to tell you more about places that you can find out for yourself on the internet. We ended up booking a James Villa where some friends had stayed previously and thoroughly reccomended.
northandy said:
Aye but you had to be very brave imo.
Well done anyone that did though!
I bought in at 11 and sold at 13. Not a massive amount cash wise but quite a few thousand shares, which looked nice for while to look at Well done anyone that did though!
I had intended to ride it out for a while, but after a day of doing very little I decided to cash in and make a few quid pocket money. Wish I'd waited a day now, 18p today !
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