News. Politics & Economics: 2012 Predictions Please!
Discussion
As per the title, what 5 events do you think we will see happen in N, P & E in 2012. Here are mine:
1) The Euro collapses. Starting with Greece and spreading via Italian debt owned by France. The many, many summits and accords along the way fail to reassure the markets and ‘the event’ (a bank collapse?) snowballs out of control of the ECB who cannot have meetings fast enough.
2) Ed Miliband is replaced as leader of the Labour Party. Labour tolerates him at the moment because they are ahead in the polls. However Europe will dominate the news and is already ranked as the third most important issue to voters. Cameron will receive praise for his strong leadership during the Euro collapse and the calls for Ed to stand down will grow.
3) Recovery of the Lib Dems to 12-15% share as they are hostile to the Conservatives and define a solid Lib Dem position. Conservative moves to minimise Lib Dem influence on government will help them win back some of their old voters. They won’t exit the coalition yet for fear of electoral annihilation.
4) Gold price hits $2,000 plus – reversal of recent losses due to turmoil created by 1) above and resulting terrible economic data out of all markets.
5) American backed Israeli raid on Iran. Evidence will surface (perhaps fabricated!) suggesting a raid could only be carried out within X months timeframe before becoming too dangerous and Israel will act on this.
Over to you
Edited due to inability to count.
1) The Euro collapses. Starting with Greece and spreading via Italian debt owned by France. The many, many summits and accords along the way fail to reassure the markets and ‘the event’ (a bank collapse?) snowballs out of control of the ECB who cannot have meetings fast enough.
2) Ed Miliband is replaced as leader of the Labour Party. Labour tolerates him at the moment because they are ahead in the polls. However Europe will dominate the news and is already ranked as the third most important issue to voters. Cameron will receive praise for his strong leadership during the Euro collapse and the calls for Ed to stand down will grow.
3) Recovery of the Lib Dems to 12-15% share as they are hostile to the Conservatives and define a solid Lib Dem position. Conservative moves to minimise Lib Dem influence on government will help them win back some of their old voters. They won’t exit the coalition yet for fear of electoral annihilation.
4) Gold price hits $2,000 plus – reversal of recent losses due to turmoil created by 1) above and resulting terrible economic data out of all markets.
5) American backed Israeli raid on Iran. Evidence will surface (perhaps fabricated!) suggesting a raid could only be carried out within X months timeframe before becoming too dangerous and Israel will act on this.
Over to you
Edited due to inability to count.
Edited by 0a on Thursday 15th December 00:20
I'll have a proper go then.
1. Things won't get significantly better on the economy. Much flux and simultaneous turmoil.
2. The European body politic will get an historic kick up the backside.
3. My God there'll be no escaping the Olympics in N,P+E. For good or bad. But mostly bad considering bad makes much better copy.
I'll add a four on a personal note. The missus will win (or lose, depending on your perspective) the battle of personal freedom against age as her ovaries are finally put to use.
1. Things won't get significantly better on the economy. Much flux and simultaneous turmoil.
2. The European body politic will get an historic kick up the backside.
3. My God there'll be no escaping the Olympics in N,P+E. For good or bad. But mostly bad considering bad makes much better copy.
I'll add a four on a personal note. The missus will win (or lose, depending on your perspective) the battle of personal freedom against age as her ovaries are finally put to use.
Clegg is ousted as leader of the lib dems, lib dems join labour and Dave leaves 10 in order for Ed to move in.
Financial Sector exposed to market corruption comes to hound the taxpayer again, dusting off 'too big to fail'.
Population through out Europe and the West become more disillusioned with representative democracy and decline in voter turnout accelerates.
People fail to get the point of the book The Black Swan.
Financial Sector exposed to market corruption comes to hound the taxpayer again, dusting off 'too big to fail'.
Population through out Europe and the West become more disillusioned with representative democracy and decline in voter turnout accelerates.
People fail to get the point of the book The Black Swan.
Edited by Fittster on Thursday 15th December 01:11
Fittster said:
Clegg is ousted as leader of the lib dems, lib dems join labour and Dave leaves 10 in order for Ed to move in.
A frightening prospect.O/T the next election is set by the Fixed Term Parliament act as 7 May 2015. Paliament cannot be dissolved unless a motion of no confidence is passed and no alternative government is found, or a vote for an early general election is agreed either by at least two-thirds of MPs.
What happens if the lib-dems leave the coalition, but refuse to join Labour, and then Labour and the Lib Dems refuse to endorse a vote for an early election (say their poll numbers are bad)?
Are we stuck with a government that can do nothing?!
scenario8 said:
I'll have a proper go then.
1. Things won't get significantly better on the economy. Much flux and simultaneous turmoil.
2. The European body politic will get an historic kick up the backside.
3. My God there'll be no escaping the Olympics in N,P+E. For good or bad. But mostly bad considering bad makes much better copy.
I'll add a four on a personal note. The missus will win (or lose, depending on your perspective) the battle of personal freedom against age as her ovaries are finally put to use.
Oh b1. Things won't get significantly better on the economy. Much flux and simultaneous turmoil.
2. The European body politic will get an historic kick up the backside.
3. My God there'll be no escaping the Olympics in N,P+E. For good or bad. But mostly bad considering bad makes much better copy.
I'll add a four on a personal note. The missus will win (or lose, depending on your perspective) the battle of personal freedom against age as her ovaries are finally put to use.
ks that is next year isn't it, I had genuinely forgotten.I predict the first "Olympic coutdown" news story to be in January.
1: Multiple 'foiled' terrorist attacks on the Olympics
2: We will be blamed for the Euro going down the tubes because of Cameron's veto
3: We will have one huge 'bad news' story covered up by Team GB winning gold medals at the Olympics
4: Iran will probably glow in the dark for the next 500 years as their "it's only for power" nuclear gubbins goes critical and ends up going pop. US/Israel/UK will be blamed for this along the same lines as Stuxnet
5: The iPhone 5 launches and becomes the biggest selling Apple device since the iPhone 4S
2: We will be blamed for the Euro going down the tubes because of Cameron's veto
3: We will have one huge 'bad news' story covered up by Team GB winning gold medals at the Olympics
4: Iran will probably glow in the dark for the next 500 years as their "it's only for power" nuclear gubbins goes critical and ends up going pop. US/Israel/UK will be blamed for this along the same lines as Stuxnet
5: The iPhone 5 launches and becomes the biggest selling Apple device since the iPhone 4S
0a said:
2) Ed Miliband is replaced as leader of the Labour Party. Labour tolerates him at the moment because they are ahead in the polls. However Europe will dominate the news and is already ranked as the third most important issue to voters. Cameron will receive praise for his strong leadership during the Euro collapse and the calls for Ed to stand down will grow.
Labour already going behind in the polls.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16175503
Brite spark said:
Yes, as the article says most labour votes agree that the gov should not borrow more. Miliband is arguing against Cameron and against the electorate in Europe, MPs will start to grumble if the polls move more in 2012 as I think they will when the Euro goes.UK, US and EU slip into depression - contagion spreads to Asia.
Credit Crunch II starts and banks take more public money/fold.
Several governments are changed in Europe, some by violent protests.
Following the withdrawals of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, the US start provoking the Chinese over resource rich Myanmar/Burma and their territorial waters using Human Rights as a cover (plus ca change).
New cold war starts in the Pacific.
North Korea goes a bit more mental.
The winner of the X-Factor 2012 is still considered more important than any of the above by 90% of the UK population and media.
Credit Crunch II starts and banks take more public money/fold.
Several governments are changed in Europe, some by violent protests.
Following the withdrawals of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, the US start provoking the Chinese over resource rich Myanmar/Burma and their territorial waters using Human Rights as a cover (plus ca change).
New cold war starts in the Pacific.
North Korea goes a bit more mental.
The winner of the X-Factor 2012 is still considered more important than any of the above by 90% of the UK population and media.
Core Euro area countries downgraded by rating agencies
Euro further depreciates
Predictions of breakup
Indirect Monetisation by ECB of sovereign bonds accelerates
Massive rally on the back of monetisation proves temporary
Euro area muddles through slowly lurching towards full integration and transfer union
Long term prospects after so much reform are positive
Commodities remain in strong demand as rising world population keeps pressure on
Watch for the curve ball from Iran for Oil prices, mega spike on the cards
Malthusian trends gather pace
My guesses
Euro further depreciates
Predictions of breakup
Indirect Monetisation by ECB of sovereign bonds accelerates
Massive rally on the back of monetisation proves temporary
Euro area muddles through slowly lurching towards full integration and transfer union
Long term prospects after so much reform are positive
Commodities remain in strong demand as rising world population keeps pressure on
Watch for the curve ball from Iran for Oil prices, mega spike on the cards
Malthusian trends gather pace
My guesses
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