Future classics, and their electronics
Discussion
I was musing on the 'depreciation proof' and similar threads, narrowing down my top pick for that (I think F575M, incidentally). But it got me to considering the long term maintenance issues for current and recent cars, particularly around things like ECUs in low production run models.
Historically, maintenance of older classics has been mostly about the oily bits. When the factory no longer wanted to produce a replacement part, there has always been someone somewhere with the capability to make one using drawings, or an old part, or best fit. In general the more expensive the car, the more cash is available for custom re-manufacture, and so the more likely it is that the car is kept viable. Electrical parts were relatively simple, often using generic relays or simple components whose functions could be replicated with current products.
This is not going to be true in the future. More and more of the core functions of a car are electronically controlled. Some of the controllers are generic, like Motronic, but some are custom. The custom ones are not going to be recreatable by a specialist machine shop; indeed it is unlikely even the factory would be able to make new ones as the chips used are unlikely to have production runs of more than five or six years.
Some of these controllers could be bypassed - we can get along without memory seats and auto climate control. But missing things like engine management, emissions control, ABS, and so on will make a car either not go at all or not be MOT-able.
There is going to be a real desirability curve for future classics where the peak is the most modern car available with the fewest ECU components. We're past the peak of that curve already - I would draw a rough line at the point where gearboxes went wholly electronic, so approximately F430, Murcielago, E-generation BMW's, and so on. I certainly wouldn't want to be trying to source an F1-gearbox controller for an F620 in 2040.
Having said that, as we transition to purely electric drivelines through 2020 and beyond, the situation will improve due to the reduced requirement for complex electronic control of mechanical components, and more use of custom firmware on generic ASICs to control electrical components.
So Newc's top tip for future classic satisfaction: buy a F575 manual, or an early manual Murci, or wait till 2020 and buy a 600kW Lamborghini Electradorado.
Historically, maintenance of older classics has been mostly about the oily bits. When the factory no longer wanted to produce a replacement part, there has always been someone somewhere with the capability to make one using drawings, or an old part, or best fit. In general the more expensive the car, the more cash is available for custom re-manufacture, and so the more likely it is that the car is kept viable. Electrical parts were relatively simple, often using generic relays or simple components whose functions could be replicated with current products.
This is not going to be true in the future. More and more of the core functions of a car are electronically controlled. Some of the controllers are generic, like Motronic, but some are custom. The custom ones are not going to be recreatable by a specialist machine shop; indeed it is unlikely even the factory would be able to make new ones as the chips used are unlikely to have production runs of more than five or six years.
Some of these controllers could be bypassed - we can get along without memory seats and auto climate control. But missing things like engine management, emissions control, ABS, and so on will make a car either not go at all or not be MOT-able.
There is going to be a real desirability curve for future classics where the peak is the most modern car available with the fewest ECU components. We're past the peak of that curve already - I would draw a rough line at the point where gearboxes went wholly electronic, so approximately F430, Murcielago, E-generation BMW's, and so on. I certainly wouldn't want to be trying to source an F1-gearbox controller for an F620 in 2040.
Having said that, as we transition to purely electric drivelines through 2020 and beyond, the situation will improve due to the reduced requirement for complex electronic control of mechanical components, and more use of custom firmware on generic ASICs to control electrical components.
So Newc's top tip for future classic satisfaction: buy a F575 manual, or an early manual Murci, or wait till 2020 and buy a 600kW Lamborghini Electradorado.
I have made comments along a very similar line many times in the past and have used the Veyron as the car most likely to become a very expensive paper weight sometime in the future. As you say the robots are taking over the earth. Luckily the likes of Ferrari and Lamborghini have extremely well established independents that are willing to keep their cars on the road. The geeky PlayStation generation having been mucking around with ECU's for years now so the knowledge base is available to anyone with an appropriate connection cord and a laptop. And with a relatively large number of these cars on the road it makes economic sense to spend your time breaking the codes.
The problem with the Veyron is that no aftermarket exists or is ever likely to exist. Virtually everything on the Veyron is bespoke and has been developed by companies more used to working in the aero industry. No one is going to spend money on trying to maintain these cars as the factory will not supply outside of their dealer network. And even then most of the major servicing has to be done by the factory at extreme cost. Which is why I have said all along that a Veyron could be almost worthless in about ten years time.
The problem with the Veyron is that no aftermarket exists or is ever likely to exist. Virtually everything on the Veyron is bespoke and has been developed by companies more used to working in the aero industry. No one is going to spend money on trying to maintain these cars as the factory will not supply outside of their dealer network. And even then most of the major servicing has to be done by the factory at extreme cost. Which is why I have said all along that a Veyron could be almost worthless in about ten years time.
Streetrod said:
The problem with the Veyron is that no aftermarket exists or is ever likely to exist. Virtually everything on the Veyron is bespoke and has been developed by companies more used to working in the aero industry. No one is going to spend money on trying to maintain these cars as the factory will not supply outside of their dealer network. And even then most of the major servicing has to be done by the factory at extreme cost. Which is why I have said all along that a Veyron could be almost worthless in about ten years time.
Well said. I admire the Veyron as a technical / engineering achievement, and am sure it's a great car to drive and pose in. But in no way can it be considered a sensible or practical car to own. Judging by the amount of depreciating second-hand Veyrons for sale, it seems that even the super-rich baulk at Bugatti's insane maintenance and servicing costs. In ten years time, I'd be surprised if many Veyrons are still being driven on a regular basis. As an enthusiast, I find myself amazed at even saying this about a hypercar, but the Veyron is perhaps one example of a vehicle that's better as a static display in a museum or private collection. If it's driven on a regular basis, it's probably depreciating considerably, and also accumulating increasingly crazy servicing costs at the same time. I can see why, at face value, a Veyron may seem an attractive second-hand purchase, in that they can be comparable in price to something like an Enzo. However, while I'm sure that an Enzo isn't cheap to run, it'll never be as expensive as a Bugatti!
Slightly OT, but two random Bugatti questions if anyone can contribute:
- Any idea it costs to insure a Veyron in the UK? I read a figure of £24k per year once, but don't know where this came from.
- Since the early 90s Bugatti EB110GT / SuperSport are occasionally available and apparently pretty good cars, who would you go to for servicing and parts? Would the new (VW) Bugatti do them or is there some sort of specialist independent network?
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