Very good article on the rise of China and consequences.
Discussion
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/25/china-...
One of the things I have found dealing with a lot of young Chinese professionals and visits there is the amazing, sunny optimism. OF course there are huge,huge social issues, but the Britain and the US were hardly tidy places to live at the beginning of their ascents to power. Its sobering stuff.
One of the things I have found dealing with a lot of young Chinese professionals and visits there is the amazing, sunny optimism. OF course there are huge,huge social issues, but the Britain and the US were hardly tidy places to live at the beginning of their ascents to power. Its sobering stuff.
RDMcG said:
One of the things I have found dealing with a lot of young Chinese professionals and visits there is the amazing, sunny optimism.
Really, given a year or two, all the ones i met [IB graduates] start complaining about the same sh8t that people here [in the UK] do - like why is the traffic jam around Guildford so bad? At the end of the day, we all individually want to be happy or have nice shiny things - unfortunately too much of the emphasis is on the second part. I feel it will backfire when some of their dreams don't quite turn out as promised.davepoth said:
The coming collapse of the property bubble in China will see to that. It's going to be ugly.
Not sure about this - at least the government are trying to do something to slow everything down and avoid the burst.This is one area that a dictatorship wins over a western style "democracy" - they can take the long view and try to solve the problem rather than take the short view and try to win the next election leaving a mess for the winners of the election after.
I do also wonder if the negative view on the Chinese property market highlighted in western media is, as the article describes, viewed through a western prism, applying experience of similar crashes in the west to the east. I'm not saying everything will be fine, far from it, but I don't think it will be as bad. Unlike the debt laden west, China has huge reserves so could reduce the effect by dipping into its US$3 trillion investment fund. I imagine they would also be happy to print more money if needed - as an export based economy having a devalued currency is never a bad thing, especially with the US claims that its being held artificially low.
I read the other day that the average wealth of a an MP in China is around 1.5 billion dollars.
The country is basically run by it's most succesful businessmen, who get things done. One thing we forget about the property in China is all the house being demolished, there is not too way too much property in CHina - It's just that people can't afford to move into it yet.
I also think Chinas one child policy will help economically, huge gains in wealth with a stable (or slightly diminishing) population = even greater wealth per capita.
The country is basically run by it's most succesful businessmen, who get things done. One thing we forget about the property in China is all the house being demolished, there is not too way too much property in CHina - It's just that people can't afford to move into it yet.
I also think Chinas one child policy will help economically, huge gains in wealth with a stable (or slightly diminishing) population = even greater wealth per capita.
So what are we meant to do about it? No doubt form ourselves into a state-worshipping European Union on the Chinese model, with a Communist party stranglehold on power?
You can tell the author is a lefty, because he seems to see it like a game of football. It's not.
China developing and consuming more is good for us, and China exporting more cheap stuff is also good for us.
If the Republican primaries receive more coverage than the Chinese communist party, it might be because we are all closet racists who don't rate China. Or it might be because we can relate to the issues and candidates involved easier, and because it's not a foregone conclusion in the way the Chinese Communist Party Congress is.
If we export more to Ireland then it's probably because it's on our doorstep with 6 million affluent English speaking consumers.
Finally, they all love and worship the state as the embodiment of civilisation and bringer of harmony and stability, do they? The millions of Chinese who moved to Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and nearly everywhere else in the world don't seem to. If you walk around a communist country asking people their views on the state, you're not likely to get the same response you might get in recession hit US, or overtaxed Britain. Certainly Asians in general seem to have a less individualistic approach to life, but we've seen time and time again that as people become more affluent they demand greater democratic control, and this is a bridge China is already starting to cross. The next few decades are likely to see a few more growing pains along the way, rather than a vindication of totalitarianism.
As for learning Mandarin in schools - my brother lives in China, and one of his biggest problems apparently is finding people to speak it to, as they usually want to practice their English. No harm in picking a bit up, but unless I go to live there I won't break my back learning.
If it was a good article, it wouldn't be in the Guardian.
You can tell the author is a lefty, because he seems to see it like a game of football. It's not.
China developing and consuming more is good for us, and China exporting more cheap stuff is also good for us.
If the Republican primaries receive more coverage than the Chinese communist party, it might be because we are all closet racists who don't rate China. Or it might be because we can relate to the issues and candidates involved easier, and because it's not a foregone conclusion in the way the Chinese Communist Party Congress is.
If we export more to Ireland then it's probably because it's on our doorstep with 6 million affluent English speaking consumers.
Finally, they all love and worship the state as the embodiment of civilisation and bringer of harmony and stability, do they? The millions of Chinese who moved to Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and nearly everywhere else in the world don't seem to. If you walk around a communist country asking people their views on the state, you're not likely to get the same response you might get in recession hit US, or overtaxed Britain. Certainly Asians in general seem to have a less individualistic approach to life, but we've seen time and time again that as people become more affluent they demand greater democratic control, and this is a bridge China is already starting to cross. The next few decades are likely to see a few more growing pains along the way, rather than a vindication of totalitarianism.
As for learning Mandarin in schools - my brother lives in China, and one of his biggest problems apparently is finding people to speak it to, as they usually want to practice their English. No harm in picking a bit up, but unless I go to live there I won't break my back learning.
If it was a good article, it wouldn't be in the Guardian.
What is interesting is their birthrates are falling and hence the population is ageing. The problem isn’t as acute as many western countries but China’s population will probably peak in about 2030 and then fall. Remember in China almost 75% of the population are of working age but this is likely to fall to under 60% by 2030.
This is why countries should do everything in their power to poach young, skilled or educated workers by making their country as attractive as possible (through jobs, social services and reorganising tax burden). This must be one area western countries could take a lot of financial pressure off in the future by acting now.
This is why countries should do everything in their power to poach young, skilled or educated workers by making their country as attractive as possible (through jobs, social services and reorganising tax burden). This must be one area western countries could take a lot of financial pressure off in the future by acting now.
speedy_thrills said:
What is interesting is their birthrates are falling and hence the population is ageing. The problem isn’t as acute as many western countries but China’s population will probably peak in about 2030 and then fall. Remember in China almost 75% of the population are of working age but this is likely to fall to under 60% by 2030.
By 2020 China's economy will utterly Dwarf the USA's though...When you are the centre of the world you can make the rules.
jbi said:
By 2020 China's economy will utterly Dwarf the USA's though...
When you are the centre of the world you can make the rules.
Around the time Chinese GDP will surpass the U.S.? There is no doubt that China will usurp the U.S. position as the largest economy if they can keep their growth rate up. IMO they won't enjoy an unchallengeable position in military or economic power however.When you are the centre of the world you can make the rules.
Just having a quick scan over the article and the questions of 'why'...... in my view the west will never be able to compete with China's growth curve because the west gives its working and non-working population too many 'rights' and 'expectations'.
With things like minimum wages increasing and lavish T&C's in comparison to the eastern countries in question then the investment in to products will never see the profit returns that China gets compared to the west.
The way China succeeds in an everyday life style is that many of the people are not rich and therefore many of the essential living products are also cheap home markets goods.
But try to mirror that to western life styles, bread, milk, clothes etc. are all very expensive in comparison, and therefore people demand the wages to buy them. If the population demands such high wages for even the most basic of jobs then in comparison China's businesses are able to make much more profits.
Also in the west we have a culture of highest possible health and safety regulations, which seem to hinder many business practices. Over in China although this cultures is slowly growing, much of it is applied only where essential and not very often when it would hinder the progres of the business.
So there are huge saving for Chinese companies here. (Also have to think with regards to insurance costs etc.)
I've been to China a few times and even lived there for a short time, the differences between west and est are still huge.
But it seems the east is 'winning' in many business areas.
With things like minimum wages increasing and lavish T&C's in comparison to the eastern countries in question then the investment in to products will never see the profit returns that China gets compared to the west.
The way China succeeds in an everyday life style is that many of the people are not rich and therefore many of the essential living products are also cheap home markets goods.
But try to mirror that to western life styles, bread, milk, clothes etc. are all very expensive in comparison, and therefore people demand the wages to buy them. If the population demands such high wages for even the most basic of jobs then in comparison China's businesses are able to make much more profits.
Also in the west we have a culture of highest possible health and safety regulations, which seem to hinder many business practices. Over in China although this cultures is slowly growing, much of it is applied only where essential and not very often when it would hinder the progres of the business.
So there are huge saving for Chinese companies here. (Also have to think with regards to insurance costs etc.)
I've been to China a few times and even lived there for a short time, the differences between west and est are still huge.
But it seems the east is 'winning' in many business areas.
jbi said:
I have been keeping and eye on things in China for a few years now and have warned of it's rise.
Most people simple have no idea of the scale and pace of change happening, nor how it will effect us all.
.Most people simple have no idea of the scale and pace of change happening, nor how it will effect us all.
I have lived in China for almost 3 years now.
I can full endorse what jbi has said.
When the Chinese want to do some thing, or build some thing, they just get right on and
do it.
To watch a 4 floor shopping mall, of about 400 meters x 200 meters, removed totaly, and the bare sandy ground preped for a new build, all done within a month, then you can have an idea of "rate of change"
.
They are building this shopping mall/apartment block picture below, on the diagonal corner to our apartment.
.
.
There was a new level being built on both towers every week.
Building 24/7
There was a concrete pump truck there permanently.
There were ofton up to 6 concrete trucks waiting in turn to get onto the pump to discharge.
A concrete truck was possibly on the pump for maybe 10 - 15 mins, then gone.
In this one, you can see the new hospital that was completed about 12 months ago on far left, silver building. The part of teh hospital you can see is just one end of it, it extends some 400 meters or so down that road you can see.
In the last one, you can see the new shopping mall and apartments, and just to the right, the recently prepped land for some thing else.
Weifang is a 3rd tier Chinese city with just 8,2 million persons.
vette
Edited by uk_vette on Monday 26th March 14:14
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