Electric cars - is this a 'South Sea Bubble' ?
Discussion
No, I don't want to start a fight in an empty room but .... what does everyone think about the immediate (not long-term) future for electric cars ?
Will these ever get over the limited range problem ? Has anyone yet come to terms with the costs of buying new battery packs in bulk ?
Has the re-charging infrastructure now been provided ?
[I'd better own up to one thing straight away - I am a country dweller, so a limited-range car is, quite literally, a non-starter for me ....]
Will these ever get over the limited range problem ? Has anyone yet come to terms with the costs of buying new battery packs in bulk ?
Has the re-charging infrastructure now been provided ?
[I'd better own up to one thing straight away - I am a country dweller, so a limited-range car is, quite literally, a non-starter for me ....]
With the way Oil has become a political / speculator's toy, and the price of road fuel only going one way at a higher rate of knots than people's earnings, electric is coming soon I think.
Or maybe Hydrogen technology will start to become viable.
But we won't be burning gallons of Petrol in V8's the way we have been used to, and maybe this will become the norm in our lifetimes too...
Or maybe Hydrogen technology will start to become viable.
But we won't be burning gallons of Petrol in V8's the way we have been used to, and maybe this will become the norm in our lifetimes too...
My view, from working closely with teams providing charging and electricity tariff pricing for EV, There is a lot of investment going into it at the moment. When you consider that with the right pricing structure the fuel can be had almost for free we will soon reach a point where an electric car will be ideal for those who just need a car to do short journeys and the fully loaded cost of ownership will fall in favour of EV. You can get EV free fuel at the supermarket, you can't get free petrol!
I don't think there is any real evidence of how long batteries will last - no-one knows either way yet.
I think the issue with range is over-blown and slightly missing the point, they aren't designed for people who only have one car or for people who drive long distances. No-one has ever tried to claim that electric cars will replace all petrol/diesel cars, or even most of them as far as I know.
I think the biggest current problem with them, is that they're just too expensive. If they were the same price as an equivalent ICE powered car, we'd probably have one. They aren't, so we don't. As oil prices continue to rise, the price gap will effectively narrow. Depending on what happens in the middle east, we could easily see petrol at £5 a litre in the next ten years, which would make an electric car a much more attractive proposition.
I think the issue with range is over-blown and slightly missing the point, they aren't designed for people who only have one car or for people who drive long distances. No-one has ever tried to claim that electric cars will replace all petrol/diesel cars, or even most of them as far as I know.
I think the biggest current problem with them, is that they're just too expensive. If they were the same price as an equivalent ICE powered car, we'd probably have one. They aren't, so we don't. As oil prices continue to rise, the price gap will effectively narrow. Depending on what happens in the middle east, we could easily see petrol at £5 a litre in the next ten years, which would make an electric car a much more attractive proposition.
Edited by kambites on Monday 9th April 19:26
It won't be long before the fuel costs of a conventional petrol/diesel car will be higher than the premium for buying an electric equivalent. If petrol doubled in price (and it hasn't taken that long to double in price from 70-ish pence a litre) then the average 10k a year driver getting 40mpg will be spending well over £10k in fuel over the typical 3 years. It wouldn't take much to convince some people to spend the extra £10k up front. If PCP deals were good enough, it needn't be that much per month more.
There'll be an electric Golf on sale next year which is about as mainstream as motoring gets. If you had a suitable setup for charging (driveway or garage) and were doing round-trips under 100 miles then why not? Average commute is under 20 miles each way, meaning a charge every other day. Plenty of households run two cars, or you get used to the idea of just renting something else when you really need to drive London to Edinburgh non-stop. Most people don't drive a van every day just in case they need to move a large wardrobe or bring a pallet of bricks home, you just rent one on the odd day you need that capability.
There'll be an electric Golf on sale next year which is about as mainstream as motoring gets. If you had a suitable setup for charging (driveway or garage) and were doing round-trips under 100 miles then why not? Average commute is under 20 miles each way, meaning a charge every other day. Plenty of households run two cars, or you get used to the idea of just renting something else when you really need to drive London to Edinburgh non-stop. Most people don't drive a van every day just in case they need to move a large wardrobe or bring a pallet of bricks home, you just rent one on the odd day you need that capability.
I'm not going to get into an argument about whether the technology will work or not because the fact is I don't know. I'm sure it will eventually work just fine, there must've been a time when people said drilling for oil was a stupid idea because it'd never work.
I'm more interested in the economics which will take us to using them and how its all going to pan out because I'm not sure its as simple as many claim.
Change is driven by giving financial incentives not by making costly alternatives more 'attractive' by pricing them out of what we had. The change from 4-star to unleaded was natural because cars became more economical and unleaded was the way to go, they didn't shift us to unleaded by doubling the price of 4 star and making everybody bankrupt and unemployed. Government's did bully the industry to change but the transition for the motorist was quite smooth. Then we were pushed into diesel, just 10 years ago diesel was cheaper at the pumps than petrol and car makers sold diesel models for less than reasonably affordable petrol ones to encourage us to buy diesel, so we did. They didn't hike up the price of diesels but treble the price of petrols to bully us into it.
The next point is there's too many people who's large incomes depend on us using petrol powered cars. Not only does the economy of the Middle East and Manchester City rely on it, but then you've got all of the oil companies and of course the Government for whom direct motoring taxation makes up around 9% of their revenue. Most taxation will have some connection to motoring somewhere as well - 92% of the commute is by car, thing of the taxes paid by your exhaust fitter and the taxes paid by their suppliers and the taxes paid by their suppliers employees etc. The VAT on goods carried by road and bought by people who travelled by road to buy them. The shop employees taxes which depended on you driving to their out of town store etc etc it goes on and on. I'd estimate over 75% of Government revenue depends on us being in our vehicles in one way or another, most taxes paid can be traced back to motoring in very few steps so pricing us off the road is not an option.
The only viable way of putting us in electric cars is to keep ICE cars cost effective to run but making the EV so good that its worth investing in, which will happen eventually anyway in theory. By putting petrol at £5 a litre you shatter the economy and nobody has any money so nobodies going to buy an EV. Oil cannot quadruple in price because then nobody could afford it so they won't sell it. Areas which have not been cost effective to explore for oil and extract will become cost effective if suppliers cannot meet demand for a good universal price.
The question is where will the Government make up their tax revenue when we do switch to EV's? £2000 plug tax?
I'm more interested in the economics which will take us to using them and how its all going to pan out because I'm not sure its as simple as many claim.
Ray Luxury-Yacht said:
But we won't be burning gallons of Petrol in V8's the way we have been used to, and maybe this will become the norm in our lifetimes too...
Most dont burn gallons of petrol in V8's now and haven't done for quite some time. A brief unscientific survey at the side of the road will result in seeing many 1.4 petrols and 1.9 turbo diesels going past.kambites said:
I think the biggest current problem with them, is that they're just too expensive. If they were the same price as an equivalent ICE powered car, we'd probably have one. They aren't, so we don't.
They are ridiculously priced thats true but they will get cheaper, everything always does. The more EV's they make and sell and the more other manufacturers buy into it the cheaper they'll get. My main concern about the day to day usability of them is its difficult to charge them without your own driveway and even then whats to stop kids unplugging it or vandals cutting the cable? They need to look into that, i'm pretty sure the Health and Safety executive wouldn't want cables draped over every pavement in Britain.kambites said:
Depending on what happens in the middle east, we could easily see petrol at £5 a litre in the next ten years, which would make an electric car a much more attractive proposition.
This is where I begin to lose you. I for instance don't feel we could easily see petrol at £5 a litre in the next ten years and if we did then the economy would be so shattered by then nobody could afford an electric car anyway. Many Middle Eastern nations depend on the sale and export of oil to run their own economies, they need to sell it just as much as we need to buy it so they cannot afford to enter into anything which would either cut the west off from supplies or make it so expensive the west couldn't buy it. If it reaches that price level people simply wont' be paying it so the Oil Companies, producers and the Government won't be making any money which leads to a massive demand slump. sjg said:
t won't be long before the fuel costs of a conventional petrol/diesel car will be higher than the premium for buying an electric equivalent. If petrol doubled in price (and it hasn't taken that long to double in price from 70-ish pence a litre) then the average 10k a year driver getting 40mpg will be spending well over £10k in fuel over the typical 3 years.
First off petrol hasn't doubled in 10 years, there's been numerous tax increases and a VAT increase which has given the effect of petrol doubling when in fact the fuel itself is still under 60p a litre. Secondly - and this is more pertinent - you cannot drive change by making people skint. Most people don't have the 10k to pay upfront for the electric car and they're even less likely to have it if you double the price of petrol in the meantime, people will have no means by which to save money for it. The average salary has increased but not doubled in that time and the minimum wage has gone from £4.20ph to £6.19ph in 10 years so fuel costs have risen above inflation and earnings but more economical cars have blunted the negative effects as well as possible.Change is driven by giving financial incentives not by making costly alternatives more 'attractive' by pricing them out of what we had. The change from 4-star to unleaded was natural because cars became more economical and unleaded was the way to go, they didn't shift us to unleaded by doubling the price of 4 star and making everybody bankrupt and unemployed. Government's did bully the industry to change but the transition for the motorist was quite smooth. Then we were pushed into diesel, just 10 years ago diesel was cheaper at the pumps than petrol and car makers sold diesel models for less than reasonably affordable petrol ones to encourage us to buy diesel, so we did. They didn't hike up the price of diesels but treble the price of petrols to bully us into it.
The next point is there's too many people who's large incomes depend on us using petrol powered cars. Not only does the economy of the Middle East and Manchester City rely on it, but then you've got all of the oil companies and of course the Government for whom direct motoring taxation makes up around 9% of their revenue. Most taxation will have some connection to motoring somewhere as well - 92% of the commute is by car, thing of the taxes paid by your exhaust fitter and the taxes paid by their suppliers and the taxes paid by their suppliers employees etc. The VAT on goods carried by road and bought by people who travelled by road to buy them. The shop employees taxes which depended on you driving to their out of town store etc etc it goes on and on. I'd estimate over 75% of Government revenue depends on us being in our vehicles in one way or another, most taxes paid can be traced back to motoring in very few steps so pricing us off the road is not an option.
The only viable way of putting us in electric cars is to keep ICE cars cost effective to run but making the EV so good that its worth investing in, which will happen eventually anyway in theory. By putting petrol at £5 a litre you shatter the economy and nobody has any money so nobodies going to buy an EV. Oil cannot quadruple in price because then nobody could afford it so they won't sell it. Areas which have not been cost effective to explore for oil and extract will become cost effective if suppliers cannot meet demand for a good universal price.
The question is where will the Government make up their tax revenue when we do switch to EV's? £2000 plug tax?
Edited by martin84 on Tuesday 10th April 17:47
To my mind the limited range is only a side issue, the real problem is the recharge time. If the range was increased to 200 or even 300 miles but it still takes 12hrs to charge, then an EV is still not capable of meaningful medium to long distance travel that nearly everyone uses their car for at least once a year.
Caruso said:
To my mind the limited range is only a side issue, the real problem is the recharge time. If the range was increased to 200 or even 300 miles but it still takes 12hrs to charge, then an EV is still not capable of meaningful medium to long distance travel that nearly everyone uses their car for at least once a year.
See my post above, peugot think they have this sorted, they will replace battery, takes 30 seconds, new for old, you're on you're way...Caruso said:
To my mind the limited range is only a side issue, the real problem is the recharge time. If the range was increased to 200 or even 300 miles but it still takes 12hrs to charge, then an EV is still not capable of meaningful medium to long distance travel that nearly everyone uses their car for at least once a year.
The leaf can charge to 80% in 30 minutes if you have a fast charger.30minutes thats a decent bacon roll and a nice coffee
But that chances of getting 2 out of those 3 things in a UK service station are very low
martin84 said:
I'm not sure replacing batteries that often makes it very 'green.'
They charge them and pass them on to the next customer, probably overnight to save need for potentailly damaging high current quick charge - it's not an entirely new set of batteries every time...Sorry was that not obvious?
martin84 said:
kambites said:
Depending on what happens in the middle east, we could easily see petrol at £5 a litre in the next ten years, which would make an electric car a much more attractive proposition.
This is where I begin to lose you. I for instance don't feel we could easily see petrol at £5 a litre in the next ten years and if we did then the economy would be so shattered by then nobody could afford an electric car anyway. Many Middle Eastern nations depend on the sale and export of oil to run their own economies, they need to sell it just as much as we need to buy it so they cannot afford to enter into anything which would either cut the west off from supplies or make it so expensive the west couldn't buy it. If it reaches that price level people simply wont' be paying it so the Oil Companies, producers and the Government won't be making any money which leads to a massive demand slump. Maybe that's being pessimistic, but I certainly wouldn't call it impossible.
Edited by kambites on Tuesday 10th April 18:10
martin84 said:
Aren't there suspicions that 'fast charging' can shorten the batteries lifespan though? Filling my car as quickly as possible doesnt half the life of its engine.
i think the cost of a fast charger might be a bit more of an issueBut if an EV don't suit you, don't buy one its not hard
EVs compliment fossil ruled cars not replace them
kambites said:
Well I'd say that 5% general price inflation is probably optimistically low, but if we stick with that as a nice round figure, that puts the price in ten years at about £2.30 per litre, so five pounds would be roughly a doubling in real-terms price. When you look at the rate at which demand is ramping up in the far east, I don't think a doubling of the real-terms price of crude in the next ten years is that unrealistic so the question simply becomes "what happens to duty?".
What goes up always comes down. It can only go as high as the majority of people can afford or they can't sell it. Its not in the oil producers interests to cater purely for the super rich. People can't afford £2.30 a litre, its already making people question the point of going to work at £1.35. What happens to duty? Well the Government needs to scrap it, we already know that. The duty escalator began in times of low oil prices but the fuel tax gravy train is over now. If they want us to be able to afford to go to work (or if they want us in EV's) they need to get used to zero fuel duty coming in, they need to ween themselves off their addiction and reliance on fuel duty so they might as well start with waving the 3p increase this year and reduce it 2p every year.
I think it would be extremely naive to believe that we can continue to commute as far as we do today in the long run - I think the single biggest thing that has got to change on the UK's roads, is that we've just got to use them less. That wont happen overnight, but as prices rise it will happen in the end.
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