Bank shares what to do.
Bank shares what to do.
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Discussion

Welshbeef

Original Poster:

49,633 posts

228 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
I have the unfortunate pleasure of holding shares in Barclays Santander and Lloyds.
I have lost c97%

So question is seeing the ongoing issues would I be better selling these up take the pain crystallise the loss and invest in petro stocks or another OR just sit back and play the long game a decade or more...

Hoofy

80,111 posts

312 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
I have lost c97%
Might as well hold. You get dividends, right?

That's my personal view as someone who doesn't generally touch shares.

fat80b

3,250 posts

251 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
No point worrying about what they used to be worth - that just brings emotions in to the equation.

The only thing you have to ask is "are they good value at the price they are at today?"

If you think they are, then hold and even consider buying more and averaging down.

If you think you can spot better, higher, safer value elsewhere then sell and buy somewhere else.

Bob


R11ysf

1,968 posts

212 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
If you've held them to the point of losing 97% then you weren't actively managing them anyway so why start now? Hold them forever and hope the banking system recovers. If you'd asked this when you were down 50% then it is a worthwhile question, but down 97% you're lucky they weren't Northern Rock!!

Welshbeef

Original Poster:

49,633 posts

228 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
R11ysf said:
If you've held them to the point of losing 97% then you weren't actively managing them anyway so why start now? Hold them forever and hope the banking system recovers. If you'd asked this when you were down 50% then it is a worthwhile question, but down 97% you're lucky they weren't Northern Rock!!
Dividends!
Lloyds nope
Barclays tiny amount
Santander some amount.


The worry is that what if they tank? I ask as I could have a nice Carribean holiday for a good few weeks business classing it.

I held them as it happened so quickly plus was getting married planning everything I didn't have the time - actually makes it a rather expensive decision. Anyway that's happened so forward looking.


5 year timescale what's the view here of Banking stocks which I hold?
Will Lloyds breach the £1?
Will Santander hit £10
Will Barclays get up to £8

I do like the idea of averaging down but have yet to Mann up to do it.

Cheib

25,417 posts

205 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
It sounds ridiculous but you need to look at Markey Cap with banks and not the share price....because of all the rights issues there have been it can be very misleading. People get blinkered by the share price thinking things are cheap because the price is "very low".

RBS when it was on the lows (say around 20p) and pre the 10 for 1 consolidation was still a £20bil company.....even at the highs when it was trading at 600p or 700p it was a £60bil company.

Banks in general are a very,very hard call right now. The established business mix is going to have to change so it's how they manage that change that will be key. That change is coming about because of new regualtion in the form of something called Basle II which has a huge impact on the profitability of these banks because it impost the most riskiest a(and thus potentially the most profitable) the most....as far as the consumer is concerned it means that anything over a 75% LTV mortgage because severely less profitable for the banks and it means a lot of the corporate business or investment banking just won't egt done or businesses closed.

sideways sid

1,466 posts

245 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
R11ysf said:
If you've held them to the point of losing 97% then you weren't actively managing them anyway so why start now? Hold them forever and hope the banking system recovers. If you'd asked this when you were down 50% then it is a worthwhile question, but down 97% you're lucky they weren't Northern Rock!!
The worry is that what if they tank? I ask as I could have a nice Carribean holiday for a good few weeks business classing it.

I wish I could lose that much without noticing / worrying until now!

If you still have £15k worth (low guestimate to get you to the Carribean) and you lost 97%, you started with £500k. You're presumably doing something very well elsewhere! smile

Welshbeef

Original Poster:

49,633 posts

228 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
sideways sid said:
I wish I could lose that much without noticing / worrying until now!

If you still have £15k worth (low guestimate to get you to the Carribean) and you lost 97%, you started with £500k. You're presumably doing something very well elsewhere! smile
I have c£4k remaining and yep it was c£120-130k ish original.

crankedup

25,764 posts

273 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
Hold and hope.

marky1

1,094 posts

226 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
When you find the "few week business class caribbean holiday" for £4k could you give me a shout?

So you've lost 116k on them and you're bothered about the last 4k - do you think maybe shares are not for you????

johnfm

13,751 posts

280 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
You may as well hold them.

The only way you will make up the loss with a £4k stake is getting lucky on an AIM stock.

Barclays back to £8...HEH.

m444ttb

3,183 posts

259 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
Ouch! I thought my Dad had done badly with his Lloyds shares having been worth c.£60k and now worth bugger all! That was build up in Lloyds employee share scheme from age 18 to retirement last year (although he hadn't bought any since they really fell through the floor!) frown

Welshbeef

Original Poster:

49,633 posts

228 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
m444ttb said:
Ouch! I thought my Dad had done badly with his Lloyds shares having been worth c.£60k and now worth bugger all! That was build up in Lloyds employee share scheme from age 18 to retirement last year (although he hadn't bought any since they really fell through the floor!) frown
Worst bit it was inheritance from my Grandad. He worked his whole life in Halifax and gave me the shares. That's the main reason I didn't sell emotional ties and the disbelief that they would keep falling

birdcage

2,934 posts

235 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
Definitely a hold, at least you have a spread which means you might be able to sell any individual risers.

That said if they come back it would be a return like Berkshire Hathaway depending on time scale.

Edited by birdcage on Monday 16th July 21:01

Sideways Rich

1,121 posts

207 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
Ouch, definite hold.

Welshbeef

Original Poster:

49,633 posts

228 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
Sideways Rich said:
Ouch, definite hold.
But with this LIBOR issue bubbling away couldn't it be the case big fines coming for all banks thus share price will decrease to reflect this? In which case sell now wait for it to end then buy back maybe at a lower price.

FLASHG1981

101 posts

173 months

Monday 16th July 2012
quotequote all
Unfortunately I don't see any fundamentals for them to go up any times soon. We have't come near to completing our house-price crash yet. The losses the UK banks have realised are mainly from abroad so over the next few years the banks are going to be hit hard when all their UK loans go bad. UK banks are in a much worse state that than in America as they are twice as leveraged so will be hit much harder.

johnfm

13,751 posts

280 months

Tuesday 17th July 2012
quotequote all
Are they not paying ANY divis at all?

Welshbeef

Original Poster:

49,633 posts

228 months

Tuesday 17th July 2012
quotequote all
johnfm said:
Are they not paying ANY divis at all?
Lloyds has not since 2008 and has zero intention for many years to come or cannot until the govt stake is sold off...

marky1

1,094 posts

226 months

Tuesday 17th July 2012
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
Worst bit it was inheritance from my Grandad. He worked his whole life in Halifax and gave me the shares. That's the main reason I didn't sell emotional ties and the disbelief that they would keep falling
Fair enough, changes my view to an extent, can sympathise with you.