Road deaths increase
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LordGrover

Original Poster:

33,918 posts

230 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
quotequote all
BBC news: Click.

So in a period where speed limits have been reduced and there are ever more calming schemes and cyclists, traffic fatalities have risen.

Many routes I use on a daily/weekly basis which have always been unrestricted have recently become 40 or 50 mph limits with on accidents or collisions I'm aware of in the last 10+ years. I just don't understand the mentality - do they think are cars just plain bad and cars going 'fast' even worse?

Rawwr

22,722 posts

252 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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The problem is the way in which statistics are interpreted. As a couple of examples based on the latest stats that fatalities have risen, which one of these valid statements do you use to form an argument?

a) The increase in traffic calming and reduction in speed limits has caused an increase in fatalities.

b) We have reach a point where we can no longer realistically reduce annual fatalities and we will see annual variance around a baseline.

c) The increase in traffic calming and reduction in speed limits isn't enough and therefore we need to further increase them.


kambites

70,103 posts

239 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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Indeed. The fact that fatalities are rising doesn't really tell us anything about why. It's impossible to say whether they would have gone up more if speed limits hadn't been lowered, or less.

Personally, I doubt it makes a statistically measurable difference either way.

Fitz666

686 posts

160 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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Natural selection at its best....

davepoth

29,395 posts

217 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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BRAKE will say (and I'm just guessing here) it's because of speed cameras being turned off.

ReedyGT

353 posts

194 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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LordGrover said:
BBC news: Click.

So in a period where speed limits have been reduced and there are ever more calming schemes and cyclists, traffic fatalities have risen.

Many routes I use on a daily/weekly basis which have always been unrestricted have recently become 40 or 50 mph limits with on accidents or collisions I'm aware of in the last 10+ years. I just don't understand the mentality - do they think are cars just plain bad and cars going 'fast' even worse?
martin84 on another thread! said:
To expand on my earlier point with clearer numbers;

In 2011 there were 1,901 road deaths as the article says and that was indeed a rise from the record low of 1,857 the previous year which co-incided with a 2% drop in vehicle traffic. In 2006 there were 3,172 road deaths, I didn't see campaigns for 40 limits on rural roads then. Just three years ago in 2009 there were 2,222 road deaths. The overall picture is still very much down.

Aside from 2011, road deaths have fallen every year since 1997 (which saw 3,600 road deaths) despite there being 7 million more cars registered in Britain since then. The only exception was 2003 which saw a jump of 300, but 2004 saw fewer road deaths than 2002 so I don't see what the big fuss is about. Towards the end of the 1990s the Government set out a target for reducing road deaths and we in fact exceeded those targets.

What I take from these figures is when the economy shrinks and less people drive - less people die on the roads. If in 2011 some of those 2% got back out onto the roads then surely it stands to reason deaths would rise? Isn't that sort of....normal?

Full figures for Road Deaths of the last decade:

2011: 1,901
2010: 1,857
2009: 2,222
2008: 2,538
2007: 2,946
2006: 3,172
2005: 3,201
2004: 3,221
2003: 3,508
2002: 3,431
2001: 3,450
^^^ This

LordGrover

Original Poster:

33,918 posts

230 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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Oops! I didn't find another thread when I looked. Apols.

madmover

1,744 posts

202 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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I've got mixed views but one point I do think to be valid and would love to know the statistic for is how many of the fatalities that occur are as a result of people being intoxicated, paying no attention to the limit in place anyhow or driving without due care and attention ie on their phone or something. I'd say a large proportion of these are a result of one or more of these factors In which case I think they can't be related to the speed limits as they clearly arn't driving to them regardless of what the sign says in which case it could be a call to look at other traffic calming measures.
I should think few fatalities occur when driving within the current speed limits and following good practice in which case I think the current speed limits would often be deemed acceptable.(I could well be wrong here I agree). Everyone has their own views but speed doesn't kill where used appropriately, people who cause fatalities I believe often won't be the sort of person to pay any attention to the limit in place anyhow in which case I feel changing speed limits won't improve anything. Enforcing them better or people attending driver training courses could well be a better option In my view.

saaby93

32,038 posts

196 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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It's been known for sometime that moving speed limits below what was safest was having an upward pressure on the stats, unlike improved car safety and driver training.
It's finally won out.

ReedyGT

353 posts

194 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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LordGrover said:
Oops! I didn't find another thread when I looked. Apols.
It was from a different article about the proposed 40mph limits in rural areas, so not a repost from you - but the poster had put those figure in that I though were relevent to your topic!

Strangely Brown

12,485 posts

249 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18881049

Have you ever seen so much hand-wringing and condemnation band-wagon jumping in one article?

My favourite is this bit:

hand wringing whiner Mrs Ellman said:
ministers needed to explain whether last year's rise in road deaths was a one-off "blip" or the start of a worrying trend.

"The evidence we gathered suggests the principal factor in improving road safety is robust political leadership," she added.
Yet another "regulation regulation regulation" loony. Whatever happened to, "education education education"?

philmots

4,660 posts

278 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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I'd wager the main reason road deaths have fallen so much in recent years is the fact that cars are getting safer and safer.. Actual accidents may well of gone up as traffic has increased?

Not sure why else it could drop as peoples driving seems to have got worse and worse.

MGgeordie

939 posts

202 months

Wednesday 18th July 2012
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Any chance that it could be down to cars being fitted with so much safety equipment that people drive less carefully due to the fact they believe they will survive impacts? Just look at the speeds you can get away with round bends now.....20 years ago you would be certain to end up on your roof taking a bend at anything over 45mph!

Just a thought....