Has the Classic Car Market Peaked??

[Stelvio1]

Been to a few CC auctions recently and lots of the catalogue have struggled to achieve their bottom estimate, some nowhere near..

As I am considering buying a 'Classic' rather than indulging my pension fund manager further do you reckon it may be a case of holding fire or does anyone think another repeat 1989 crash in CC values may be on the cards?

Opinions?

[S3_Graham]

Stelvio1 said:

Been to a few CC auctions recently and lots of the catalogue have struggled to achieve their bottom estimate, some nowhere near..

As I am considering buying a 'Classic' rather than indulging my pension fund manager further do you reckon it may be a case of holding fire or does anyone think another repeat 1989 crash in CC values may be on the cards?

Opinions?

I think the standard CC rules apply, buy it because you like it. If it goes up great. If it doesn't , you still have a lovely toy.

I wouldn't buy a car purely as an investment.

[Steffan]

Stelvio1 said:

Been to a few CC auctions recently and lots of the catalogue have struggled to achieve their bottom estimate, some nowhere near..

As I am considering buying a 'Classic' rather than indulging my pension fund manager further do you reckon it may be a case of holding fire or does anyone think another repeat 1989 crash in CC values may be on the cards?

Opinions?

I am a retired accountant with a lifelong love and a collection of many classics. I suggest that chattels, which is in essence the class of investment that collectible cars may be classified amongst, for investment purposes, are unlikely to sustain their values in the obvious economic difficulties facing the western world currently.

However that could be equally true of most investments and certainly pension funds. If you are going to enjoy the car and buy wisely you will be guaranteed at least some return. More than your pension fund may give you, I fear. Since I own some 10 classics you could say I am voting with my feet.

However I would buy carefully. I cannot see the real classics such as the XK range or a genuine E type not rising in value. Some of the esoteric specialist cars may be fragile IMO.

[Stelvio1]

I really give up on this site - why has this been moved??

[culminator]

Interesting question. I've been watching the market for a while and many cars seem to be hanging around for a long time. Some models have already started to come down, such as Plus 8 Morgan's, about 10% less than a year ago. Bread and butter classics, MGBs, TRs seem to be already reducing.

[Kinky]

Stelvio1 said:

I really give up on this site - why has this been moved??

Perhaps there's a clue in the title of this thread and the title of this forum

[bigunit00]

996 GT3 mk 1 club sport or gt2 are probably worth a punt or 996 gt3 RS

[9mm]

Most definitely when we've got people thinking an average 230SL for £25K is cheap (see the other thread). They rust like other cars of that vintage and cost a packet to restore properly. Anyone putting £25K+ into a ropey example is going to get their fingers well and truly burned, not least because the economy is continuing its trip down the toilet and there'll be more and more cars coming on the market as people are desperate to get their hands on cash.

[culminator]

Yep and it'll all be triggered as soon as a hint of an interest rate increase is announced.

[ClassicMotorNut]

culminator said:

Interesting question. I've been watching the market for a while and many cars seem to be hanging around for a long time. Some models have already started to come down, such as Plus 8 Morgan's, about 10% less than a year ago. Bread and butter classics, MGBs, TRs seem to be already reducing.

I think a browse through the classifieds in Enjoying MG might render your statement about the B incorrect.

[mph]

There won't be a crash because there hasn't been a boom. The market is nothing like the 1980's.

Everyone can quote specific makes/models as going up/down but if we're talking crash then surely we're mainly referring to the top-end stuff.

It's not so relevant IMHO if say a Morris Minor or an MGB is worth £10k or £5k.

Irrespective of what the UK economy does there are more millionaires every year chasing a finite number of "desireable" cars.

Edited by mph on Sunday 6th January 11:05

Edited by mph on Sunday 6th January 11:06

[9mm]

mph said:

There won't be a crash because there hasn't been a boom. The market is nothing like the 1980's.

Everyone can quote specific makes/models as going up/down but if we're talking crash then surely we're mainly referring to the top-end stuff.

It's not so relevant IMHO if say a Morris Minor or an MGB is worth £10k or £5k.

Irrespective of what the UK economy does there are more millionaires every year chasing a finite number of "desireable" cars.

Edited by mph on Sunday 6th January 11:05

Edited by mph on Sunday 6th January 11:06

I think it's very relevant. People paying £5-£15K for a ratty old XJS for example are insane. Although not as insane as some of the people buying Mark 1 Escorts and other old Fords recently. These are people that can't afford their car to halve in value if they need to realise the asset. OTOH someone who can afford a £5M D-type will probably be unaffected by a loss of £1M or so.

More likely, in the latter case, that they can just afford to sit on the investment. As has been said before, you only make a loss (or a profit) if you sell.

[Steffan]

9mm said:

mph said:

There won't be a crash because there hasn't been a boom. The market is nothing like the 1980's.

Everyone can quote specific makes/models as going up/down but if we're talking crash then surely we're mainly referring to the top-end stuff.

It's not so relevant IMHO if say a Morris Minor or an MGB is worth £10k or £5k.

Irrespective of what the UK economy does there are more millionaires every year chasing a finite number of "desireable" cars.

Edited by mph on Sunday 6th January 11:05

Edited by mph on Sunday 6th January 11:06

I think it's very relevant. People paying £5-£15K for a ratty old XJS for example are insane. Although not as insane as some of the people buying Mark 1 Escorts and other old Fords recently. These are people that can't afford their car to halve in value if they need to realise the asset. OTOH someone who can afford a £5M D-type will probably be unaffected by a loss of £1M or so.

More likely, in the latter case, that they can just afford to sit on the investment. As has been said before, you only make a loss (or a profit) if you sell.

Correct IMO.

If you buy a car and enjoy the ownership for 25 years then the pleasure derived over that period is a reward in itself. Again over that period it is likely that there will be a rise in all classic values.

If you buy and may sell in two to three years I would be very cautious. With the economic problems we all face since the recession is a continuum currently and could take ten years to improve, if indeed there is to be any improvement the opportunities for investment appreciation must be small.

I own five classic Minis (amongst others) bought over the last 15 years including a genuine Mini Cooper convertible and an original 1963 genuine 850 Mini. I cannot remember what I paid for them (probably less than £800 each). All of them have been rebuilt by me and would certainly sell for between £2000 and £6000 depending on the car. They are pretty well mint now. But I probably spent at least £2000 on each one rebuilding the cars. Since I do not intend to sell any of them, ever, the final value is academic.

You could have an opportunity to enjoy your pension and may make a small return over a lengthy period. I would look at classic car investment on that basis only.

[Sid's Dad]

Talk to a dealer, or look around you at a classic car show, and you'll see that the 50-something man, buying with surplus cash he already has, is the biggest single demographic group who spend money on (as opposed to talk about) classic cars. This demographic is also typically more resilient to economic downturns than some other demographic groups, and this is why classic cars have continued to sell well in the post2008 economy, when spending in so many other areas has gone down. So you could argue this is a better place to put your money than some, in these uncertain times. But personally I'd still not approach it as anything other than an indulgence I can afford, rather than as an investment.

[Pistom]

I don't think I understand the question. There are isolated cases of certain models being in demand but cars like MGBs and Stags have been more or less at the same level for a few years. Even good ones are not huge amounts of money and owned by enthusiasts.

The value of cars like old Pagodas is being driven by the overseas market.

I'd love a Plus 8 so I'd like to jthink prices are coming down to a level I can afford but I'm seeing no evidence of that.

[culminator]

Plus 8's have come down in price for sure. Talk to any dealer and they'll confirm that they peaked early last spring. Most MGs in Enjoying MG have been for sale for ages and are either not selling or not selling for anything like the asking price.

[Pistom]

Re Plus 8 prices, that's news to me but I've not been looking very closely recently. Last year when I was looking, entry level was about £25K and a quick look now doesn't show many with asking prices below that.

Maybe MGBs are not moving but GT6s do appear to move quickly unless they are tarted up examples at overinflated prices.

[tortop45]

I to have been watching the CC market,its a hard call weather theyved peaked,sure the people with money to invest will go for the high end stuff like astons but even they do get cought out when the prices come down.youve got to watch interests rates and get out of classics if your trying to make money just before they start to move up which i think will be in a years time.Its a good time to sell right now but not to buy as i see it.But if your thinking of a classic look for low production numbers and cars with a intersting history like race cars and 60s famous people.Saying that whats cheep at the moment that every body has enjoyed and got rid of,look at the 80s cars,what do you see as future classics.i see hot hatch backs like the 205 gti.I do think the market has peaked thou..........

[Dm18]

classic cars like any market are ultimately determined by supply and demand. supply is relatively well known. one headwind is that restoration is becoming harder and more expensive so there is likely to be a gap between good cars and cars with needs that will only grow and grow. on the demand side demographics play a big part. classics are basically a club debenture to a leisure lifestyle. aging baby boomers have certain tastes that may or may not be representative of the next generations. i have no interest in certain eras but big interest in the 80's and 90's. new markets also provide some demand.

so it all comes down to staying power. if you buy a car that you can afford to keep for a long time you will be fine. if you are flushed out at the wrong time you will suffer. just like any other item

[dartissimus]

Dm18 said:

classic cars like any market are ultimately determined by supply and demand. supply is relatively well known. one headwind is that restoration is becoming harder and more expensive so there is likely to be a gap between good cars and cars with needs that will only grow and grow. on the demand side demographics play a big part. classics are basically a club debenture to a leisure lifestyle. aging baby boomers have certain tastes that may or may not be representative of the next generations. i have no interest in certain eras but big interest in the 80's and 90's. new markets also provide some demand.

so it all comes down to staying power. if you buy a car that you can afford to keep for a long time you will be fine. if you are flushed out at the wrong time you will suffer. just like any other item

Good shout