Defender values post retirement...
Defender values post retirement...
Author
Discussion

Bill

Original Poster:

57,557 posts

279 months

Thursday 14th November 2013
quotequote all
What do we think? The Defender already depreciates extremely slowly so what are people's expectations post 2015 when it's due to be retired/radically changed?

I have a hankering for a CSW and am trying to work out if I can actually justify a new one.

IroningMan

10,598 posts

270 months

Thursday 14th November 2013
quotequote all
Ask Digga to show you his sums. I'm sure he did some...

anonymous-user

78 months

Thursday 14th November 2013
quotequote all
Discovery prices will follow. They're a Defender too after all.
;-)
But seriously folks......
Hard to say. As Camel Landy often points out on here, Defender owners are notorious for over-valuing their trucks come sales time, and assume all the bolt-on stuff will appeal to a prospective buyer. On the other hand, earlier Series wagons are now fetching silly money. Unrestored S1s well north of £5k, with S2s not far behind. There was a mint S1 in the 'bay recently for a whopping £25k.
I expect to see a surge in prices as every indy dealer sees an easy route to greater profit, which will inevitably raise private prices, even for tired old dogs, then after a while things will settle with only good solid trucks holding their value, then way down the line anything pre-2015 will become valuable regardless of condition, bit like VeeDub campers.

Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 14th November 12:00

Denis O

2,141 posts

267 months

Thursday 14th November 2013
quotequote all
Every model will become like the 50th and far from depreciating, they will all appreciate in value and LR Defender owners will all become sex gods.

Anyone wanna buy my 02 plate 90 CSW for £18,000 before the rush starts.

anonymous-user

78 months

Thursday 14th November 2013
quotequote all
Whaddya mean "become" sex gods? confused

Denis O

2,141 posts

267 months

Thursday 14th November 2013
quotequote all
scratchchin good point CK. How can we become something we already are wobble

camel_landy

5,418 posts

207 months

Thursday 14th November 2013
quotequote all
Crossflow Kid said:
But seriously folks......
Hard to say. As Camel Landy often points out on here, Defender owners are notorious for over-valuing their trucks come sales time, and assume all the bolt-on stuff will appeal to a prospective buyer. On the other hand, earlier Series wagons are now fetching silly money. Unrestored S1s well north of £5k, with S2s not far behind. There was a mint S1 in the 'bay recently for a whopping £25k.
I expect to see a surge in prices as every indy dealer sees an easy route to greater profit, which will inevitably raise private prices, even for tired old dogs, then after a while things will settle with only good solid trucks holding their value, then way down the line anything pre-2015 will become valuable regardless of condition, bit like VeeDub campers.
I'd say you're not far off the mark with that...

Personally, I think anyone wanting a 'keeper' have missed out already. The 2.4TDCi was the one to go for & the 'Cream' of the crop is the 2.4TDCi 90SW.

M

Gruber

6,313 posts

238 months

Thursday 14th November 2013
quotequote all
So would a low mileage 300tdi 90 CSW at £11k be a really silly idea?

I have a Defender-sized itch to scratch but could do without losing too much if I have to sell in 6 months to buy a house...

Would your £11-12k go on a minty 300tdi or an above-average TD5, if "getting your money back" was a key consideration?

camel_landy

5,418 posts

207 months

Thursday 14th November 2013
quotequote all
Personally, I'd be looking at a TD5 for that money.

The 300TDi is a cracking motor but even the youngest examples are over 15yrs old now!!

M

Gruber

6,313 posts

238 months

Thursday 14th November 2013
quotequote all
camel_landy said:
Personally, I'd be looking at a TD5 for that money.

The 300TDi is a cracking motor but even the youngest examples are over 15yrs old now!!

M
I don't know a huge amount about them, but age doesn't really bother me.

I'd rather buy a 15 y.o. reliable car than a 10 y.o. less reliable one.

mikeh501

799 posts

205 months

Friday 15th November 2013
quotequote all
Gruber said:
I don't know a huge amount about them, but age doesn't really bother me.

I'd rather buy a 15 y.o. reliable car than a 10 y.o. less reliable one.
my only criteria for 11k would be a galvanised bulkhead and chassis. that tells me 90% of what i need to know.

300bhp/ton

41,030 posts

214 months

Friday 15th November 2013
quotequote all
Gruber said:
So would a low mileage 300tdi 90 CSW at £11k be a really silly idea?

I have a Defender-sized itch to scratch but could do without losing too much if I have to sell in 6 months to buy a house...

Would your £11-12k go on a minty 300tdi or an above-average TD5, if "getting your money back" was a key consideration?
An £11k 300Tdi I would say will loose you money. A mate bought a 300Tdi for £2600 18 months ago. It might not have been mint. But over paying for something is hardly the way to ensure you don't lose money.

Edited by 300bhp/ton on Friday 15th November 10:33

Bill

Original Poster:

57,557 posts

279 months

Friday 15th November 2013
quotequote all
camel_landy said:
Crossflow Kid said:
But seriously folks......
Hard to say. As Camel Landy often points out on here, Defender owners are notorious for over-valuing their trucks come sales time, and assume all the bolt-on stuff will appeal to a prospective buyer. On the other hand, earlier Series wagons are now fetching silly money. Unrestored S1s well north of £5k, with S2s not far behind. There was a mint S1 in the 'bay recently for a whopping £25k.
I expect to see a surge in prices as every indy dealer sees an easy route to greater profit, which will inevitably raise private prices, even for tired old dogs, then after a while things will settle with only good solid trucks holding their value, then way down the line anything pre-2015 will become valuable regardless of condition, bit like VeeDub campers.
I'd say you're not far off the mark with that...

Personally, I think anyone wanting a 'keeper' have missed out already. The 2.4TDCi was the one to go for & the 'Cream' of the crop is the 2.4TDCi 90SW.

M
thumbup Interesting thoughts, particularly likening it to the Dub scene.

Realistically from my perspective I'd need a 110 because I have three kids in boosters (and will do for 5 years at least) and regularly use 6 or more seats. Which is probably for the best because I keep looking at 130 dual cabs as the ultimate camping vehicle hehe


camel_landy

5,418 posts

207 months

Friday 15th November 2013
quotequote all
Bill said:
Realistically from my perspective I'd need a 110 because I have three kids in boosters (and will do for 5 years at least) and regularly use 6 or more seats. Which is probably for the best because I keep looking at 130 dual cabs as the ultimate camping vehicle hehe
If you need 6x seats, you're not going to get that in a dual cab!

Looking at it from a purely practical point of view, the Disco 3/4 would be a far better car.

M

Bill

Original Poster:

57,557 posts

279 months

Friday 15th November 2013
quotequote all
That was my point, the need for extra seats has saved me. And I know the D3/4 makes far more sense, but it'll cost me more too. I'd be in a D4 tomorrow if I could afford it, this is more about justifying the man maths of interest payments vs low depreciation.

Digga

46,747 posts

307 months

Friday 15th November 2013
quotequote all
IroningMan said:
Ask Digga to show you his sums. I'm sure he did some...
I didn't really do any - just some very basic man maths.

I did take the view that, post-production-end, the vehicle was unlikely to depreciate any faster and that, given natural wastage and nostalgia, was only likely to firm-up on residuals.

I was also looking at a slightly different angle, in combination with this, which was longevity. I've reached a point in life where - for at least the last five years, if not more and for the foreseeable future - my vehiclular useage and needs are very clear and specific and either a Defender or a 4x4 VW Transporter best met them. Given a fairly low mileage and a desire not to swap cars (thereby incurring depreciation and handing money over to the dealers) any more often than necessary, I figures the Defended was the better bet of the two. It's easier to maintain and, theoretically, adapt to any changing future requirements.

Last of all, I bought the car with my heart. Aside from my TVRs (a very close second was the P38 Vogue 4.6 I had), this Defender is the car I've most looked forward to and enjoyed.

camel_landy

5,418 posts

207 months

Friday 15th November 2013
quotequote all
Bill said:
...this is more about justifying the man maths of interest payments vs low depreciation.
You know as well as I do that there is no proper justification with man maths. hehe

M

anonymous-user

78 months

Friday 15th November 2013
quotequote all
Gruber said:
So would a low mileage 300tdi 90 CSW at £11k be a really silly idea?
Not a really silly idea, but nor is it a great one.
It'd have to be a pretty special truck for that money. Never, ever taken off road, waxoyled the moment it came off the transporter, immaculate inside, and no-expense-spared come servicing.
(Edited to add: so, everything mine isn't, basically frown )

LooneyTunes

9,083 posts

182 months

Friday 15th November 2013
quotequote all
Digga said:
IroningMan said:
Ask Digga to show you his sums. I'm sure he did some...
I didn't really do any - just some very basic man maths.

I did take the view that, post-production-end, the vehicle was unlikely to depreciate any faster and that, given natural wastage and nostalgia, was only likely to firm-up on residuals.

I was also looking at a slightly different angle, in combination with this, which was longevity. I've reached a point in life where - for at least the last five years, if not more and for the foreseeable future - my vehiclular useage and needs are very clear and specific and either a Defender or a 4x4 VW Transporter best met them. Given a fairly low mileage and a desire not to swap cars (thereby incurring depreciation and handing money over to the dealers) any more often than necessary, I figures the Defended was the better bet of the two. It's easier to maintain and, theoretically, adapt to any changing future requirements.

Last of all, I bought the car with my heart. Aside from my TVRs (a very close second was the P38 Vogue 4.6 I had), this Defender is the car I've most looked forward to and enjoyed.
Factor in the ever shrinking list of vehicles that can tow the full 3500kg and there's another point in their favour (and one that will help preserve values).

I've missed having a Landy around after getting rid of my Series LR a good number of years ago and, for broadly similar reasons to you, have decided to add a new one to the Tunes fleet. Still a bit of a wait as lead times seem to be going out.

If you want some proper man maths justification:

See that (imaginary) brand new Autobiography RR over there -->?

Sure it's a nice place to be, but the amount it'll likely depreciate in 3 or 4 years will pay for a fully spec'd new Defender outright (that will still be worth >£20k). If you can convince yourself that you could have bought the RR, but decided instead to order the Defender, then you have what amounts to a free vehicle!

Gruber

6,313 posts

238 months

Friday 15th November 2013
quotequote all
Crossflow Kid said:
Gruber said:
So would a low mileage 300tdi 90 CSW at £11k be a really silly idea?
Not a really silly idea, but nor is it a great one.
It'd have to be a pretty special truck for that money. Never, ever taken off road, waxoyled the moment it came off the transporter, immaculate inside, and no-expense-spared come servicing.
(Edited to add: so, everything mine isn't, basically frown )
Very grateful for the sense check thumbup

I'm currently yearning for this rather good looking TD5: http://www.surrey4x4.co.uk/used-cars/land-rover-de...