Thursday 14th August 2014

Pebble Beach preview: Under The Hammer

PH is heading off to Pebble Beach; Chris Rees picks some cars we probably shouldn't try bidding on

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How much is too much to pay for a car? For me, the law of diminishing returns has become terminal well below £200,000. But then I'm a car enthusiast, not a an investment banker - the sort of person who has, of late, been skyrocketing classic car prices to intergalactic levels; the sort of person who's already Beluga'd up in the VIP area at Pebble Beach in California, where the next four days will witness the world of classic car brokering - perhaps literally - going for broke.

Steve McQueen's Ferrari estimated at $12m

We're about to discover the new upper limit of what a car is worth. At three auctions in and around Pebble Beach next week, the hammer will go down on easily the most stellar line-up of cars ever sold.

The $70m GTO?
At least eight cars look certain to join the rarefied 'Figure of Eight' club (estimated value $10,000,000 or over). We'll know later today just how much the most expensive of all will sell for: the 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO at Bonhams. Since the last GTO on sale went for over $50m, a figure as high as $70m isn't implausible. The world's most expensive car? Easily.

Down the road at Gooding & Co is a McLaren F1 - the only one ever painted Marlboro White - which is expected to pummel last year's record auction price of $8.47m for an F1, with an upper estimate of $14m. But it'll be outshone by another mid-engined three-seater, built three decades before the McLaren F1. Pininfarina's stunning 1966 Ferrari 365 P Berlinetta Speciale is based on a Ferrari 365 P2 endurance racer chassis but was built for the road - in fact, the first ever mid-engined 12-cylinder purpose-built road Ferrari. It's probably going to top $20m, says Gooding.

Three-seater 365 P Speciale pitched at $20m

As for Ferrari's first-ever mid-engined 'road' car, the 250 LM, RM Auctions has a 1964 Scaglietti example up for sale at a slightly more 'affordable' upper estimate of $12.5m - but since the last one sold for $13m in 2013, I reckon it could easily sell for $20m.

Steve McQueen's Fezza, too
RM's star of the show has to be another Scaglietti-bodied Ferrari: the stunning 1967 Ferrari 275 GTB/4once owned by Steve McQueen. RM's pre-sale estimate is $12 million, but I think it should go for a lot more. Meanwhile, a 1961 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider has an estimate of $15m. And what about the first-ever Ford GT40 Roadster, one of only six Roadsters built - yours for an estimated $10m? See it in action here in our earlier Time For Tea?

RM's lovely Alfa GTA Junior at affordable (relative) end

If you can't afford that 250 GTO, what about its successor, the 275 GTB/C? RM is offering one of only three built , and if less than $30m changed hands I'd be very surprised. In fact, many of the official estimates look pretty conservative to me. In the current febrile climate, expect many of them to be doubled, at least.

What price a bargain?
After that breathless set of figures, I'm almost temped to apply the word 'bargain' to the following lots: how about your very own Ferrari F1 car - the mere spare car from the 2000 season, admittedly, but still driven by Schumacher twice - for $2m; a 2003 Aston Martin DBAR1 by Zagato for $200,000; a $175,000 Alfa Romeo Giulia GTA 1300 Junior; a Lancia Stratos HF up for $450,000; and my personal favourite (and previously featured here as a Spotted), a 1972 Nissan Skyline H/T 2000GT-R 'Hakosuka' estimated at $125,000.

Zagato Aston DBAR1 among quirkier lots

So is $70m too much to pay for a car? Of course it is. But these really aren't 'cars' any more, they're investments. Which leads me on to my next question: like any investment, values can go down as well as up, so is this particularly corpulent bubble about to burst? Like a lot of enthusiasts who would kill for a sniff of such machinery, I would like to answer 'yes' to that. But frankly, I can only see the market going one way: up, and up, and up...

[Sources, with full sale listings: Bonhams, RM Auctions, Gooding & Co]

Photos: RM Auctions (250LM, Stratos, GT40, Alfa GTA, Aston DBAR1, McQueen 275GTB/4) Brian Henniker via Gooding & Co (McLaren F1) and Bonhams (250GTO)

[red_duke]

Wonder how Gordon Murray feels about the F1 hitting such stratospheric values? Faintly amused I should imagine.

It would be interesting to here the designer's views on the perceived value of their creations currently going under the hammer. Shame so many of them aren't around any more.

Edited by red_duke on Thursday 14th August 10:25

[JDMDrifter]

How on earth can cars reach this value

[oldtimer2]

For a seriously wealthy private investor maybe but not for your basic pension pot. Cars are built to be driven not wrapped in cotton wool.

[EricE]

I will be watching the air cooled 911 auctions with great interest. The last few cars that were sold via auction missed their (admittedly lofty) estimates and if that continues at pebble beach then we might just witness the beginning of a price correction.

[Vee12V]

Incredible line-up. Seems like a big opportunity (if you've got that sort of money) or that many of the current owners try to cash in?

[Dave Hedgehog]

some amazing metal going for mental prices

[Davey S2]

A lot of classic cars will almost certainly drop in value over the next 10 years or so but I don't think that either the 250 GTO or the McLaren F1 will be among them.

I just hope that they are still driven occassionally and taken to events where others can enjoy seeing them.

[soad]

Giulia GTA 1300 Junior Stradale, I Want that one!

[Nors]

110bhp for a 1.3 in the late 60's is pretty impressive from the Alfa!

[red_duke]

Will these auctions be televised anywhere? I'd love to be a fly-on-the wall but the price of admission would probably bankrupt me.

[The Hypno-Toad]

Personally speaking I think some of those estimates are waaayyy off.

I'm amazed that the F1 has actually made it to the auction floor. Most of those are usually traded within a very specialist list of clients and I'm surprised no one has come in with a pre-event offer. My understanding is that Mr Evans is desperate to get his hands on one.

The three seat Ferrari will go for absolutely mental money because there is only one and even most Ferrari anoraks didn't know it existed. Plus from every angle except the back it is staggeringly beautiful.

The GTO? The sky is literally the limit.

I had a look at one of the auction sites and they have an estimate of $300,000. On a mint Mazda RX-3!! There is a Toyota 2000GT on there too and they are saying that could be the first million dollar Toyota.

Plus a McLaren M20 Can-Am is up for grabs too. Chassis number one of three in the world and one of the others belongs to Ron. As a fan I'll be interested how much that goes for.

Crazy times. There has to be a crash soon, shirley?

[Undirection]

oldtimer2 said:

For a seriously wealthy private investor maybe but not for your basic pension pot. Cars are built to be driven not wrapped in cotton wool.

True but if you could, say, buy an F1 and make a few/many millions by having it sitting in a garage I suspect you'd do exactly that.

[PAUL500]

The cars above 10 mill US all stopped being functional transport many moons ago, and are now 3D art purchased instead of a Picasso and traded amongst the ultra rich to show off at the latest party. None are as tatty as they were when first built, they have been restored to within an inch of their lives.

Its only the guys who bought them many years ago that still use them as intended as they can be rebuilt totally for less than a million typically

[ilovevolvo]

The Hypno-Toad said:

Personally speaking I think some of those estimates are waaayyy off.

I'm amazed that the F1 has actually made it to the auction floor. Most of those are usually traded within a very specialist list of clients and I'm surprised no one has come in with a pre-event offer. My understanding is that Mr Evans is desperate to get his hands on one.

Last year at least 2 F1s sold for more then 10 million pounds i wonder why its selling .

As for Mr Evans he has already owned one....

[Spyder5]

I'd be bringing this home...

[suffolk009]

Frankly these values just make me more excited about the opportunity of tool room copies/replicas/continuations - whatever they're called.

Cars are not works of art. They are not "designed" by artists. They are engineered machines. Some are certainly very beautiful. Rarity adds perceived value. The idea that a car that (say) Stirling Moss drove to victory in some race is worth more than an identical car without that history is a load of bullst dreamt up by the dealers and auction houses.

The market in collecting cars is a very recent one. Many expensive mistakes and resulting "corrections" will be made.

[Reavenger]

I wonder what working order the Ferrari F1 car is in....

Edit: Just seen...."Ready for further use in Ferrari’s F1 Clienti program". Imagine that on a track day

Edited by Reavenger on Thursday 14th August 11:31

[suffolk009]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I don't know how it works in the car business, but with art you had to go in with an offer well above the high estimate to secure it. The buyer does this to preserve the secrecy of the their identity and the amount paid. Auction houses rarely used to get into pre-auction auctions. That was the art business a few years ago.

[The Hypno-Toad]

ilovevolvo said:

The Hypno-Toad said:

Personally speaking I think some of those estimates are waaayyy off.

I'm amazed that the F1 has actually made it to the auction floor. Most of those are usually traded within a very specialist list of clients and I'm surprised no one has come in with a pre-event offer. My understanding is that Mr Evans is desperate to get his hands on one.

Last year at least 2 F1s sold for more then 10 million pounds i wonder why its selling .

As for Mr Evans he has already owned one....

I was not aware, I thought he was still shopping. Must keep up to date more.

[The Hypno-Toad]

suffolk009 said:

I don't know how it works in the car business, but with art you had to go in with an offer well above the high estimate to secure it. The buyer does this to preserve the secrecy of the their identity and the amount paid. Auction houses rarely used to get into pre-auction auctions. That was the art business a few years ago.

A couple of years ago there was due to be a Prost 1990 Ferrari 640 come up for auction and that went to a "pre-bidder".

And then of course there was the Bonhams Williams F1 auction that wasn't. Everything was purchased by one very wealthy collector.