The long term future of classic cars – when the oil runs out
Discussion
There are arguments over the projections, but I believe that estimates of global oil reserves say that oil reserves will last another 50 years, and will presumably start tailing off long before then. Now I know there are those who say it will never run out because improvements in technology allow us to find hitherto undiscovered reserves and to better exploit those we do have, but for the sake of argument let’s say that oil will start to run out in a few decades.
There will no doubt be other much more important concerns arising from that scenario, but what does it mean for the classic car enthusiast?
Are the days of the classic car enthusiast numbered? Will 20th century cars become the preserve of the very wealthy? Will they be banned from the road and just occasionally trailered to special “period” events? Will they all be converted to alternative power units? Or will a wholesale shift to alternative fuel vehicles mean that the oil will last longer and the few 20th century IC cars still on the roads will continue to be tolerated?
Such crystal ball gazing is notoriously difficult but I would be interested in people’s thoughts. Can it be that we only have 20 or so years left to enjoy classic cars? Might my 2 year old son never even get to drive an internal combustion car?
There will no doubt be other much more important concerns arising from that scenario, but what does it mean for the classic car enthusiast?
Are the days of the classic car enthusiast numbered? Will 20th century cars become the preserve of the very wealthy? Will they be banned from the road and just occasionally trailered to special “period” events? Will they all be converted to alternative power units? Or will a wholesale shift to alternative fuel vehicles mean that the oil will last longer and the few 20th century IC cars still on the roads will continue to be tolerated?
Such crystal ball gazing is notoriously difficult but I would be interested in people’s thoughts. Can it be that we only have 20 or so years left to enjoy classic cars? Might my 2 year old son never even get to drive an internal combustion car?
The oil will never run out, it will just get more and more expensive to the point where it is unfeasible as a fuel for mass transportation. Those with the money will still be able to attain fuel for their classics.
What is far more likely to kill of IC engine cars is legislation formed by city dwelling bureaucrats who think that the whole world is like London or Brussels.
What is far more likely to kill of IC engine cars is legislation formed by city dwelling bureaucrats who think that the whole world is like London or Brussels.
TurboHatchback said:
The oil will never run out, it will just get more and more expensive to the point where it is unfeasible as a fuel for mass transportation. Those with the money will still be able to attain fuel for their classics.
What is far more likely to kill of IC engine cars is legislation formed by city dwelling bureaucrats who think that the whole world is like London or Brussels.
Totally What is far more likely to kill of IC engine cars is legislation formed by city dwelling bureaucrats who think that the whole world is like London or Brussels.
Long before the oil actually runs out we need to stop burning it.
I hope in 20 years time mass transport will become fuelled by alternatives (hydrogen, battery etc) -this will mean tax will rise on petrol and diesel to the point where more environmentally friendly alternatives are cheaper and simply make more sense to consumers. At the moment they are imperfect, however EVs are starting make sense for commuting (preheated car, no visits to petrol stations, hardly any moving parts to maintain) purposes - they are just too expensive by comparison which will change as they become more popular. All the major manufacturers are gearing up in a big way behind the scenes for EVs, the ones we have seen so far are the brave ones that have put their early cars into production.
What that means is petrol and diesel powered vehicles will become expensive to run, exacerbated by reduced demand for petrol. Usable classic may become non-viable, and classics will become garage queens to some extent. For the little use garage queens get fuel costs won't be a big problem.
This does also mean the value of classics will plummet, and we will be able to pick up awesome cars cheaply, and even if it won't make sense to commute in them, we will enjoy them at the weekend!
I hope in 20 years time mass transport will become fuelled by alternatives (hydrogen, battery etc) -this will mean tax will rise on petrol and diesel to the point where more environmentally friendly alternatives are cheaper and simply make more sense to consumers. At the moment they are imperfect, however EVs are starting make sense for commuting (preheated car, no visits to petrol stations, hardly any moving parts to maintain) purposes - they are just too expensive by comparison which will change as they become more popular. All the major manufacturers are gearing up in a big way behind the scenes for EVs, the ones we have seen so far are the brave ones that have put their early cars into production.
What that means is petrol and diesel powered vehicles will become expensive to run, exacerbated by reduced demand for petrol. Usable classic may become non-viable, and classics will become garage queens to some extent. For the little use garage queens get fuel costs won't be a big problem.
This does also mean the value of classics will plummet, and we will be able to pick up awesome cars cheaply, and even if it won't make sense to commute in them, we will enjoy them at the weekend!
Edited by was8v on Thursday 11th September 11:57
It's also possible to easily synthesis existing hydrocarbon fuels from various biological energy sources, the issue being that this is difficult and expensive to do compared to just sucking it out of a hole in the ground. But, for the few, ultra special classic cars, i see no reason this can't be done, and plenty of people owning >£1M classics would pay £100/litre to do just that!
I suspect it's more likely to be an issue where you can drive them. Once people get used to 'lecy cars or similar with no tailpipe emissions, driving a Ferrari 250GTO down the high street is going to be arriving with the Devil himself!!
I suspect it's more likely to be an issue where you can drive them. Once people get used to 'lecy cars or similar with no tailpipe emissions, driving a Ferrari 250GTO down the high street is going to be arriving with the Devil himself!!
was8v said:
Long before the oil actually runs out we need to stop burning it.
I hope in 20 years time mass transport will become fuelled by alternatives (hydrogen, battery etc)
just to pick you up on this...I hope in 20 years time mass transport will become fuelled by alternatives (hydrogen, battery etc)
were do you suggest Hydrogen comes from? (as in commercially, how is hydrogen 'made'?)
same with Electricity...
Scuffers said:
was8v said:
Long before the oil actually runs out we need to stop burning it.
I hope in 20 years time mass transport will become fuelled by alternatives (hydrogen, battery etc)
just to pick you up on this...I hope in 20 years time mass transport will become fuelled by alternatives (hydrogen, battery etc)
were do you suggest Hydrogen comes from? (as in commercially, how is hydrogen 'made'?)
same with Electricity...
Scuffers said:
was8v said:
Long before the oil actually runs out we need to stop burning it.
I hope in 20 years time mass transport will become fuelled by alternatives (hydrogen, battery etc)
just to pick you up on this...I hope in 20 years time mass transport will become fuelled by alternatives (hydrogen, battery etc)
were do you suggest Hydrogen comes from? (as in commercially, how is hydrogen 'made'?)
same with Electricity...
d&tbm=shophydrogen generators are nearly at the price point where domestic user systems and simple safe storage will be readily available.
generate electricty? that's even easier...ever heard of photo-voltaic and wind power?
personally, i can not wait for a hydrogen generator to become readily available and stored in an LPG type storage tank. i'll be buying one immediately, converting my cars and changing the boiler from oil-fired to hydrogen gas.
Scuffers said:
just to pick you up on this...
were do you suggest Hydrogen comes from? (as in commercially, how is hydrogen 'made'?)
same with Electricity...
The other barrier to mass adoption of EVs is fuelling the grid and if the existing infrastructure will cope with everyone charging their car up (it won't at the moment).were do you suggest Hydrogen comes from? (as in commercially, how is hydrogen 'made'?)
same with Electricity...
Right now at this very moment electricity is: 33% coal, 35% gas, 17% nuclear, 8% imported from france/netherlands, 3% biomass, 1.5% wind and few other smaller contributions. http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
I hope that inside the next 20 years the UK will move to more sustainable sources of electricity, either more nuclear, carbon capture on plant (got to be easier to capture the carbon at a power station than at every tail pipe), or renewables - perhaps your car charges are cheaper when your local wind turbine is spinning.
Producing hydrogen is an energy intensive process, but this is one that is perhaps well suited to renewable (wind, solar) power. http://www.nrel.gov/hydrogen/proj_wind_hydrogen.ht...
Turbines provided 22% of the UK's electricity on one sunday last month - http://bit.ly/1w0NrXz - but obviously this energy is only available when the wind is blowing. Hydrogen can be made when the energy is there and stored.
I'm not saying these will be the solution - but I think and hope that inside the next 20 years we will have a solution.
The alternative is we carry on burning oil that then gets so expensive to extract its not viable for transport - and we have more pronounced effects on our climate.
Scuffers said:
just to pick you up on this...
were do you suggest Hydrogen comes from? (as in commercially, how is hydrogen 'made'?)
same with Electricity...
This. were do you suggest Hydrogen comes from? (as in commercially, how is hydrogen 'made'?)
same with Electricity...
The only reason that any sustainable energy sources are being put into service for electricity generation is that it's good PR, being paid for by the energy provider by buying in cheap electricity from coal-fired stations in parts of the EU that are less finicky about the environment. If the price of fossil fuels go up, so will electricity. This will also mean that the alternative sources will become more price competitive - not because it gets cheaper but because of fossil fuels becoming more expensive.
Either way, expect the cost of electricity to go up by about as much as the cost of petrol and diesel, at least until the plateau is reached where the much higher price of alternative soures becomes the standard.
This is quite apart from the rare earth materials needed for those hundreds of kilograms worth of batteries in one single EV if it's to have a halfway useable range. Yes, those are recyceable, but at only at high energy and environmental cost.
As for ICE-powered cars, they'll run quite well on alcohol fuels that can be made of waste materials. 't Will be more expensive than what we pay now for petrol, but it will be available, anyway.
For the answer to this, see horses.
Many people still have them
They are mainly used for pleasure
They are still allowed most places you would want to take them
There remains a large community surrounding them
The infastructure to maintain them is still about
Horse related events are still big business
You won't be taking one on a 30 mile commute, but they won't disappear.
And petrol will always be available. Maybe in 70 years the petrol forecourt will have morphed into something else, and a chap with a tanker will do a milkround to pre-booked classic car tank brimmage.
Many people still have them
They are mainly used for pleasure
They are still allowed most places you would want to take them
There remains a large community surrounding them
The infastructure to maintain them is still about
Horse related events are still big business
You won't be taking one on a 30 mile commute, but they won't disappear.
And petrol will always be available. Maybe in 70 years the petrol forecourt will have morphed into something else, and a chap with a tanker will do a milkround to pre-booked classic car tank brimmage.
900T-R said:
This will also mean that the alternative sources will become more price competitive - not because it gets cheaper but because of fossil fuels becoming more expensive.
Either way, expect the cost of electricity to go up by about as much as the cost of petrol and diesel, at least until the plateau is reached where the much higher price of alternative soures becomes the standard.
China is going mad for wind energy, not just because its better for their air polluted environment, but because its already looking to be cheaper for them than fossil fuels: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-2562...Either way, expect the cost of electricity to go up by about as much as the cost of petrol and diesel, at least until the plateau is reached where the much higher price of alternative soures becomes the standard.
900T-R said:
This is quite apart from the rare earth materials needed for those hundreds of kilograms worth of batteries in one single EV if it's to have a halfway useable range. Yes, those are recyceable, but at only at high energy and environmental cost.
Almost half of the world's Lithium is in Boliva, and continued access to that resource is a whole other kettle of fish regarding ethical political regimes and security of supply. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/01/07/bolivi...Edited by was8v on Thursday 11th September 12:57
v8250 said:
Scuffers said:
was8v said:
Long before the oil actually runs out we need to stop burning it.
I hope in 20 years time mass transport will become fuelled by alternatives (hydrogen, battery etc)
just to pick you up on this...I hope in 20 years time mass transport will become fuelled by alternatives (hydrogen, battery etc)
were do you suggest Hydrogen comes from? (as in commercially, how is hydrogen 'made'?)
same with Electricity...
d&tbm=shophydrogen generators are nearly at the price point where domestic user systems and simple safe storage will be readily available.
generate electricty? that's even easier...ever heard of photo-voltaic and wind power?
personally, i can not wait for a hydrogen generator to become readily available and stored in an LPG type storage tank. i'll be buying one immediately, converting my cars and changing the boiler from oil-fired to hydrogen gas.
if you go and by Hydrogen today commercially, 99.9% of it will be produced from cracking carbonaceous fossil fuels, ie, predominantly, oil and gas.
yes, you can use electrolysis, but then we are back to where's the electricity come from?
Hydrogen has just become the most expensive battery technology yet!
and back to your solar/wind power, sorry no, whilst solar can work, it's way too in-efficient and expensive, and wind just does not work.
please take a moment to work out just how many Kwh of electricity would be required to equivalent the current petrol consumption of the UK.
The thread has gone off topic already (sorry) but I was making the point that the infrastructure for petrol delivery probably won't exist in 20 years, leaving classics to largely be garage queens and petrol much more expensive than it is now.
I don't think that means the classic car will die out, they are still desirable things to own and the amazing complexity and engineering brilliance of the internal combustion engine will be preserved!
I don't think that means the classic car will die out, they are still desirable things to own and the amazing complexity and engineering brilliance of the internal combustion engine will be preserved!
Hmmm, the way I understand it, at current energy pricing the case for wind turbines in the Netherlands is still touch and go if you consider all the costs involved, and you'd say that of al nations we should have the greatest chance of a break even at least. Conversely, that's it's much the same for solar panels (energy-intensive production and need to be written off over 1015 years) over here isn't that much of a surprise... 
was8v said:
The thread has gone off topic already (sorry) but I was making the point that the infrastructure for petrol delivery probably won't exist in 20 years, leaving classics to largely be garage queens and petrol much more expensive than it is now.
I don't think that means the classic car will die out, they are still desirable things to own and the amazing complexity and engineering brilliance of the internal combustion engine will be preserved!
rubbishI don't think that means the classic car will die out, they are still desirable things to own and the amazing complexity and engineering brilliance of the internal combustion engine will be preserved!
be more like 50 years than 20 and even that's questionable.
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