Electric cars (again) - how fast technology changes
Discussion
I have seriously considered changing to a Nissan Leaf 
, but at present I just can't make myself do it - and it's the rate of obsolescence that's stopping me. And - how fast they depreciate.
Petrol cars get updated, but don't seem to become out of date quite so fast.
Example: 2011 (11 Reg) Nissan Leaf: New £26,000 (£31,000 minus Government's grant) now worth £7,515 as a trade-in (29% of original).
Best comparison I could come up with is a Qashqai was new £23,810 now worth £10,755 trade-in (45%).
(That's for a 2.0 Tekna CVT - hardly exactly a comparable car I know, but a close-ish match on new price)
I'm guessing one reason is the new model Leaf now has much better charging options; another reason might be the unknown life of the battery.
In round numbers an old Leaf can do 100 miles on a 10 hour charge.
I predict that in 2020 a new Leaf-equivalent will do 1,000 miles on a 1-hour charge.
So when should I buy one?
, but at present I just can't make myself do it - and it's the rate of obsolescence that's stopping me. And - how fast they depreciate.Petrol cars get updated, but don't seem to become out of date quite so fast.
Example: 2011 (11 Reg) Nissan Leaf: New £26,000 (£31,000 minus Government's grant) now worth £7,515 as a trade-in (29% of original).
Best comparison I could come up with is a Qashqai was new £23,810 now worth £10,755 trade-in (45%).
(That's for a 2.0 Tekna CVT - hardly exactly a comparable car I know, but a close-ish match on new price)
I'm guessing one reason is the new model Leaf now has much better charging options; another reason might be the unknown life of the battery.
In round numbers an old Leaf can do 100 miles on a 10 hour charge.
I predict that in 2020 a new Leaf-equivalent will do 1,000 miles on a 1-hour charge.
So when should I buy one?
M4cruiser said:
at present I just can't make myself do it - and it's the rate of obsolescence that's stopping me.
Very wise. IMO unless you can get full value out of it in about 3 years you're better off staying "conventional".However, I think the tide is about to turn. Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf look pretty serious, as does BMWs i3. I'd give it another couple of years myself.
right now is the time to buy an electric leaf if you are planning to do all your charging at home.
they have some excellent deals on in uk because despite being made in UK, popular all over the world, they've sold f
k all in UK so far, and there is a deal with subsidised/free installation of high powered home charging points
these deals may not last that long if it triggers the sales they want, and sooner or later the government grants will be withdrawn, already the free charging at public charge points has now gone, and with the prices that are being charged, they are at least as much as filling up an economical car to do the same distance, and they won't come down any time soon so there's no point holding off for that
they have some excellent deals on in uk because despite being made in UK, popular all over the world, they've sold f
k all in UK so far, and there is a deal with subsidised/free installation of high powered home charging points these deals may not last that long if it triggers the sales they want, and sooner or later the government grants will be withdrawn, already the free charging at public charge points has now gone, and with the prices that are being charged, they are at least as much as filling up an economical car to do the same distance, and they won't come down any time soon so there's no point holding off for that
Terminator X said:
Perhaps the seemingly high depreciation reflects genuine concern that the "battery change" cost will be high vs a car worth peanuts in a few years time? *Awaits wrath of EV Gods*
TX.
Is it a genuine concern?TX.
Of course it is
Just as many won't buy a prius as they need a new battery every year and are less economical then an M3
Is the concern over battery life justifiable?
I think not
But i like people being convinced that all EVs are worthless after 3 years
Just need to find a nice one locally for washers and be brave enough to enter the horrors of car buying
amstrange1 said:
M4cruiser said:
2011 (11 Reg) Nissan Leaf: New £26,000 (£31,000 minus Government's grant) now worth £7,515 as a trade-in (29% of original).
How many people pay full list though? There's been some massive discounts from Nissan.If they're that cheap, a second-hand one sounds extremely tempting if your commute matches allows it. 
I don't think the argument that people are concerned about battery life makes much sense because the Prius has some of the strongest residuals in its class and uses similar battery technology. I rather suspect they're all bought as company cars because the BiK rate is so low and that second hand prices simply reflect their market value to private owners.
I am also mildly surprised that the Qashqai's residuals are so strong. 45% trade-in after three years is really quite good.
I don't think the argument that people are concerned about battery life makes much sense because the Prius has some of the strongest residuals in its class and uses similar battery technology. I rather suspect they're all bought as company cars because the BiK rate is so low and that second hand prices simply reflect their market value to private owners.
I am also mildly surprised that the Qashqai's residuals are so strong. 45% trade-in after three years is really quite good.
Edited by kambites on Friday 5th December 07:46
McWigglebum4th said:
Terminator X said:
Perhaps the seemingly high depreciation reflects genuine concern that the "battery change" cost will be high vs a car worth peanuts in a few years time? *Awaits wrath of EV Gods*
TX.
Is it a genuine concern?TX.
Of course it is
Just as many won't buy a prius as they need a new battery every year and are less economical then an M3
Is the concern over battery life justifiable?
I think not
But i like people being convinced that all EVs are worthless after 3 years
Just need to find a nice one locally for washers and be brave enough to enter the horrors of car buying
People will soon realise that a battery EV is a simple repliable solution to white goods motoring. Just look at the 4wd 700bhp tesla drivetrain. No complex gear train, just two grapefruit size motors, and the car is more efficient than the 400bhp version in like for like driving.
I hope that prices do drip significantly, I'll buy a tesla in a heartbeat.
They are around £20k new now and 2nd hand about £10k.
Go on the EV Section to get some info from owners.
There are also great lease deals especially on the Zoe.
I'm getting a Leaf on 7 day test drive next sat and hoping to use it for my 120 mile a day commute. I have somewhere to park and charge it during the day which is the main concern but not sure of using it if I decided to buy one.
If I remember I will write a report in the EV section when the test is over.
There's a taxi company somewhere down south who run a fllet of Leafs (Leaves!) and have had no problems with battery life so far. Think they are on 60k miles?
Go on the EV Section to get some info from owners.
There are also great lease deals especially on the Zoe.
I'm getting a Leaf on 7 day test drive next sat and hoping to use it for my 120 mile a day commute. I have somewhere to park and charge it during the day which is the main concern but not sure of using it if I decided to buy one.
If I remember I will write a report in the EV section when the test is over.
There's a taxi company somewhere down south who run a fllet of Leafs (Leaves!) and have had no problems with battery life so far. Think they are on 60k miles?
I would have thought the demands and nature of the cycling on Prius batteries and pure EVs are completely different. The Prius batteries are constantly managed and optimised by the Hybrid system, with the petrol engine being instantly available to top-up when needed. An EV battery just discharges until the owner plugs in. The cycles will be much deeper, and the demands greater.
I think a degree of caution over battery technology is both understandable, and to an extent, justified. How many 2 year old {insert gadget of choice]s enjoy anything like the battery life they did when they were new? When you're dealing with a battery costing £30, this is OK. £3,000+ (and many hundreds more in labour), is not such a great proposition.
I like the idea of EVs. Tesla have proven they can be made (ridiculously) fast and good looking, and the tear away from IC is becoming less of a factor as IC engines increasingly have the charisma and excitement of a potato. I have no doubt that at some stage in my future driving career I will switch to an EV, and I don't think it will be the end of my world when it happens. But for me, EVs fall under the category of things to keep a casually interested eye on for now, rather than to adopt.
I think a degree of caution over battery technology is both understandable, and to an extent, justified. How many 2 year old {insert gadget of choice]s enjoy anything like the battery life they did when they were new? When you're dealing with a battery costing £30, this is OK. £3,000+ (and many hundreds more in labour), is not such a great proposition.
I like the idea of EVs. Tesla have proven they can be made (ridiculously) fast and good looking, and the tear away from IC is becoming less of a factor as IC engines increasingly have the charisma and excitement of a potato. I have no doubt that at some stage in my future driving career I will switch to an EV, and I don't think it will be the end of my world when it happens. But for me, EVs fall under the category of things to keep a casually interested eye on for now, rather than to adopt.
Limpet said:
I think a degree of caution over battery technology is both understandable, and to an extent, justified. How many 2 year old {insert gadget of choice]s enjoy anything like the battery life they did when they were new? When you're dealing with a battery costing £30, this is OK. £3,000+ (and many hundreds more in labour), is not such a great proposition.
In my experience any properly engineered Lithium Ion powered device will last well if it's looked after properly. This isn't very common in consumer electronics but with things like decent quality power tools aimed at professionals, the batteries seem to last pretty much indefinitely. Temperature control seems to be one key thing that laptops, phones, etc. do so badly. My laptop battery is almost too hot to touch after it's been charging.
Edited by kambites on Friday 5th December 08:48
One way to avoid the burden of fast depreciation is to lease one
It is less than £2400 a year for a Leaf (there is a thread on the EV section http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
You could dip your toe in for £5k for 2 years and see what's available then.
It is less than £2400 a year for a Leaf (there is a thread on the EV section http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
You could dip your toe in for £5k for 2 years and see what's available then.
If charge points were more readily available, I'd switch to an EV tomorrow.
I live in a flat so can't charge at home, but if I could charge it at work, it would be useful for my commute home and then back the following day. If there were more on-street charging points, a Friday night charge should last the weekend and back to work.
The problem is then when I choose to make a longer trip, having to plan around charge points etc. I've no doubt in the next decade it will be a very practical option for many people, myself included.
I live in a flat so can't charge at home, but if I could charge it at work, it would be useful for my commute home and then back the following day. If there were more on-street charging points, a Friday night charge should last the weekend and back to work.
The problem is then when I choose to make a longer trip, having to plan around charge points etc. I've no doubt in the next decade it will be a very practical option for many people, myself included.
Limpet said:
I would have thought the demands and nature of the cycling on Prius batteries and pure EVs are completely different.
They are. Prius batteries have proven themselves to be nigh-on indestructible as they are being kept within a band between 40% and 80% charged all the time. Pure battery EVs don't have that option as they need all the range they can get (and you'd be a bit miffed when you get stranded while there's still a third left of the charge which could have brought you home...)A big governmental courier department went back from EV transport to CNG a few years ago within 18 months of getting the EVs because at that point, the battery capacity has dropped below 80% of their rating, which in turn made the range insufficient for the application.
For private owners, the question of battery life depends on how much capacity (and range) drop the individual deems acceptable...
kambites said:
I thought most pure EVs wouldn't drain the battery below about 30-40% or fully charge them; the life-cycle improvement being deemed more valuable than extra range?
Given the weight and cost of battery capacity, I strongly doubt it. It would mean a 35kWh battery pack would for all intents and purposes be reduced to 22 kWh or thereabouts.30-40% sounds about right for the bottom of the charging window for hybrids.
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