Discussion
OscarIndia said:
But if you are wanting to bring cash back then you want a nice low rate, ie 1:1.
I think this is what the OP is after
Exactly. I know what the rate is...I have a live chart on a screen!I think this is what the OP is after
Just debating to myself: cut my losses and get on with it or hold out for my target ... 1.25
Depends on how much you have - personally i doubt the rate will get back to 1.15 or thereabouts for some while. Might see a dip after the election - depends on the results. The euro/pound rate cycles around a bit - remember that it was 1.50 or so 10 years ago and then fell sub 1.10 two - three years back. Long term depends on how you forecast the eurozone economy - at some point there has even been question about the future for the euro itself!!! Not very helpful to you but if you really need to get the money into sterling soon you will probably have to take the hit - or use the euros in some other way.
mikerons88 said:
Exactly. I know what the rate is...I have a live chart on a screen!
Just debating to myself: cut my losses and get on with it or hold out for my target ... 1.25
Target based on what? Blind optimism? Have you done any FX research or macro study? Did you listen to Draghi yesterday?Just debating to myself: cut my losses and get on with it or hold out for my target ... 1.25
I am not an FX trader but I know a little about cross-border economics.
Right now - the UK is in a pretty good place. GDP estimates are being revised up and they are higher than the EU.
On the other hand the EU is in a mess - France = basket case, and Germany is having a serious wobble, Spain is recovering nicely but Italy... well. Yesterday the ECB had a marked downward revision of growth projections.
This has been the case for the last 18 months so you have seen the rate rise from 1.14 to recent highs around 1.27.
Now in theory the current rate should be anticipating all of the economic outlooks I mention above.
What moves the rate is NEW news.
And IMHO the news is more likely to be negative out of the EU and positive out of the UK - i.e. a continuation of the trend.
Draghi stopped short of announcing new stimulus yesterday but they are stepping up preparations for further action.
ANY further action will make the Euro less attractive (further action here is essentially some form of QE).
Hence the rate will work against you.
Economists I am reading are suggesting QE in Q115.
The more that looks likely to be true - the lower the rate.
TL;DR - you wouldn't catch me making a "MASSIVE" bet on the Euro vs. the GBP. If anything I would go the other way. Just my 2p.
walm said:
Target based on what? Blind optimism? Have you done any FX research or macro study? Did you listen to Draghi yesterday?
I am not an FX trader but I know a little about cross-border economics.
Right now - the UK is in a pretty good place. GDP estimates are being revised up and they are higher than the EU.
On the other hand the EU is in a mess - France = basket case, and Germany is having a serious wobble, Spain is recovering nicely but Italy... well. Yesterday the ECB had a marked downward revision of growth projections.
This has been the case for the last 18 months so you have seen the rate rise from 1.14 to recent highs around 1.27.
Now in theory the current rate should be anticipating all of the economic outlooks I mention above.
What moves the rate is NEW news.
And IMHO the news is more likely to be negative out of the EU and positive out of the UK - i.e. a continuation of the trend.
Draghi stopped short of announcing new stimulus yesterday but they are stepping up preparations for further action.
ANY further action will make the Euro less attractive (further action here is essentially some form of QE).
Hence the rate will work against you.
Economists I am reading are suggesting QE in Q115.
The more that looks likely to be true - the lower the rate.
TL;DR - you wouldn't catch me making a "MASSIVE" bet on the Euro vs. the GBP. If anything I would go the other way. Just my 2p.
Based on nothing. Just a blind hope.I am not an FX trader but I know a little about cross-border economics.
Right now - the UK is in a pretty good place. GDP estimates are being revised up and they are higher than the EU.
On the other hand the EU is in a mess - France = basket case, and Germany is having a serious wobble, Spain is recovering nicely but Italy... well. Yesterday the ECB had a marked downward revision of growth projections.
This has been the case for the last 18 months so you have seen the rate rise from 1.14 to recent highs around 1.27.
Now in theory the current rate should be anticipating all of the economic outlooks I mention above.
What moves the rate is NEW news.
And IMHO the news is more likely to be negative out of the EU and positive out of the UK - i.e. a continuation of the trend.
Draghi stopped short of announcing new stimulus yesterday but they are stepping up preparations for further action.
ANY further action will make the Euro less attractive (further action here is essentially some form of QE).
Hence the rate will work against you.
Economists I am reading are suggesting QE in Q115.
The more that looks likely to be true - the lower the rate.
TL;DR - you wouldn't catch me making a "MASSIVE" bet on the Euro vs. the GBP. If anything I would go the other way. Just my 2p.
Thanks for your comments. It seems to follow what I have been reading. I would rather get the money into UK so I can make a few more % on it and max my other ISA. It is currently making very little.
Any other thoughts appreciated.
Beggarall said:
Depends on how much you have - personally i doubt the rate will get back to 1.15 or thereabouts for some while. Might see a dip after the election - depends on the results. The euro/pound rate cycles around a bit - remember that it was 1.50 or so 10 years ago and then fell sub 1.10 two - three years back. Long term depends on how you forecast the eurozone economy - at some point there has even been question about the future for the euro itself!!! Not very helpful to you but if you really need to get the money into sterling soon you will probably have to take the hit - or use the euros in some other way.
45,000 euro.Annoying, I should of transferred it as I was earning it.
^^^^ What Walm said, also there were ECB sources rumours last night that the QE stimulus is a done deal and will be coming early next year. This was contrary to what Draghi said yesterday (and his usual BS rhetoric) about QE not having been decided yet and they take each decision based on the facts. He seem hell bent on doing some for of QE and having his name go down in history so I would rather be long GBP than EUR.
Also another thing to bear in mind is how long it takes to get to your target price. If it takes 6 months you also need to factor in any interest you can get over here compared to the (i'm guessing) zero rate you are getting there. An early rate move next year (unlikely) and ISA tax free savings also mean that the higher interest you are forgoing by holding money in EUR rather than GBP needs to be factored into your target rate.
Also another thing to bear in mind is how long it takes to get to your target price. If it takes 6 months you also need to factor in any interest you can get over here compared to the (i'm guessing) zero rate you are getting there. An early rate move next year (unlikely) and ISA tax free savings also mean that the higher interest you are forgoing by holding money in EUR rather than GBP needs to be factored into your target rate.
mikerons88 said:
Based on nothing. Just a blind hope.
Thanks for your comments. It seems to follow what I have been reading. I would rather get the money into UK so I can make a few more % on it and max my other ISA. It is currently making very little.
Any other thoughts appreciated.
No probs - it's a gamble either way!Thanks for your comments. It seems to follow what I have been reading. I would rather get the money into UK so I can make a few more % on it and max my other ISA. It is currently making very little.
Any other thoughts appreciated.
The rule of thumb I have though for someone with a mix of currencies to deal with is to think about your expenses too.
You may find you are naturally hedged...
Say you earn everything in USD because you work for a US Bank but you live and work in London.
Then I would convert everything as soon as I earned it (as long as I was intending on living in the UK for the long term).
BUT - you might earn a bunch of EUR and have some EUR outgoings... say a pied-a-terre in Paris with a demanding mistress or something.
Perhaps more likely you know you are going to blow EUR5-10k a year on holidays on the continent AND you travel their once a week with hotel stays etc....
In this case a bunch of your expenses are ALSO in EUR. I would tot them up for a year and divide by 12. Then I would convert my monthly EUR income back to GDP except for that amount which I would hold back to cover my EUR costs.
Sheepshanks said:
The difference is piddling!
Look at the risk / reward ratio. Where is it more likely to go from here - towards €1.20 or towards €1.30?
You're right. I should get on with it and transfer it. Difference may be piddling to you.Look at the risk / reward ratio. Where is it more likely to go from here - towards €1.20 or towards €1.30?
Each .2 is about 600 quid diff.
Edited by mikerons88 on Friday 5th December 13:12
mikerons88 said:
You're right. I should get on with it and transfer it.
Imagine you have no EUR holdings.I come to you and say - "Hi! I know you know nothing about FX but would you like to put a £35k bet on?"
I hope you would say - "eff right off crazy man".
Yet, you are in fact saying "that sounds like a great idea - let's play!"
Madness.
mikerons88 said:
Sheepshanks said:
The difference is piddling!
Look at the risk / reward ratio. Where is it more likely to go from here - towards €1.20 or towards €1.30?
You're right. I should get on with it and transfer it. Difference may be piddling to you.Look at the risk / reward ratio. Where is it more likely to go from here - towards €1.20 or towards €1.30?
Each .2 is about 600 quid diff.
t out the Euro vs GBP and USD.mikerons88 said:
Well, not really, my post which you quoted actually says "I should get on with it and transfer it". I have set up the transfer now via transferwise.
Sorry - you are right - I am agreeing with you!I meant to imply that what you have been doing every day up until today is madness!
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