Preparing to return to the fold.

[kalibre46]

Hi all,

Not sure if any of you will remember me (from here or any event I attended) but I had an MY09 DB9 a couple of years ago that I sold in order to pursue grown up boring stuff. Not a day has passed that I don't miss her, or the accompanying pipe and slippers jokes from fellow PH'ers.

That boring stuff (namely a big house renovation) will shortly be coming to an end, and I'm very much looking forward to getting back into the seat of an AM.

My current hope is that I'll be able to source a good 2009 DBS (2+2, B&O) for circa £85k or under towards the end of this year. This time my aim is to own long term, so depreciation is something that will play a factor in my decision making.

Acknowledging that no-one has a crystal ball, and acknowledging that exact residuals relate to colours, condition, mileage etc I am still after people's opinions on what my £85k car might be worth in say 2020? Assuming good condition, normal mileage etc. AM are giving the spin that they are already appreciating, but I'm doubtful of that one. I'd be interested on your thoughts.

[Philip0]

Aston Martin themselves, and leasing finance companies will be able to give you an accurate forecast - after all, it's what they base their finance packages on. They all use specialist companies like CAP to calculate future residual values.

[kalibre46]

Philip0 said:

Aston Martin themselves, and leasing finance companies will be able to give you an accurate forecast - after all, it's what they base their finance packages on. They all use specialist companies like CAP to calculate future residual values.

Thanks for the reply. Given that the DBS would be 11 odd years old by 2020 the finance companies (from my experience) wouldn't accurately model on that age, hence why PCP type agreements are hard to find on older cars, and even then they are heavily weighted on the side of caution and often not representative of actual resale value. Aston themselves have already given me their opinion, which is naturally optimistic, however they are essentially marking their own homework so cannot be trusted as a source for impartial info.

I was interested to see what everyone here had to say about future values, especially as the combined ownership experience of everyone is probably unsurpassed.

[outofstepuk]

kalibre46 said:

Thanks for the reply. Given that the DBS would be 11 odd years old by 2020 the finance companies (from my experience) wouldn't accurately model on that age, hence why PCP type agreements are hard to find on older cars, and even then they are heavily weighted on the side of caution and often not representative of actual resale value. Aston themselves have already given me their opinion, which is naturally optimistic, however they are essentially marking their own homework so cannot be trusted as a source for impartial info.

I was interested to see what everyone here had to say about future values, especially as the combined ownership experience of everyone is probably unsurpassed.

I think if the condition etc is good they'll be worth the same or more. Certainly close to leveling out, and perhaps creeping up.

[Johnny42]

I think a lot depends on what cars replace the current fleet. None of them will still be in production in 2020, their replacements will be Merc engined. If they screw up, the current fleet become sought after modern classics.

[Jockman]

Leaving the fold then returning to it just displays a confused and irrational mind.

[kalibre46]

Jockman said:

Leaving the fold then returning to it just displays a confused and irrational mind.

I've never been accused of being otherwise, so it's in-line with my character. Especially when cars are involved!

[kalibre46]

Johnny42 said:

I think a lot depends on what cars replace the current fleet. None of them will still be in production in 2020, their replacements will be Merc engined. If they screw up, the current fleet become sought after modern classics.

Thanks, this is a good point, especially as the V12 engine may not make an appearance any more.

[kalibre46]

outofstepuk said:

I think if the condition etc is good they'll be worth the same or more. Certainly close to leveling out, and perhaps creeping up.

This is also what Aston are saying, but it's difficult to see over the short time I've been looking given seasonal fluctuations etc. I could easily buy back at the DB9 level, however I don't see much point spending £60k and it being worth £30k after 5 years when by spending £85k potentially gives a much sounder investment and of course bigger smiles!

BTW, I realise these cars are bought by the heart primarily and being cars will always cost money rather than make it, however I'm (trying) to use my head a little more this time around, lol.

[Zuman]

Projecting future car values is a lot like predicting the future for any investment. I think the key is to get into a situation where you don't have to sell a car under duress. That way you can consider whether you think a price trend is long-term or just a blip, and you can determine whether to take a profit, cut your losses, or just ride out an aberration. The difference between regular investments and Aston Martins, of course, is the pleasure you have during the period you're holding the "investment."

[Philip0]

kalibre46 said:

Thanks for the reply. Given that the DBS would be 11 odd years old by 2020 the finance companies (from my experience) wouldn't accurately model on that age, hence why PCP type agreements are hard to find on older cars, and even then they are heavily weighted on the side of caution and often not representative of actual resale value. Aston themselves have already given me their opinion, which is naturally optimistic, however they are essentially marking their own homework so cannot be trusted as a source for impartial info.

I was interested to see what everyone here had to say about future values, especially as the combined ownership experience of everyone is probably unsurpassed.

Yes, I agree. But given the rarity of the DBS, its positive reviews (see Autocar's review of DBS as #5 of top "supercars") and assuming you buy one in the best condition you can afford and keep it that way, depreciation is bound to bottom out at 10 years or so (if not before). Don't try to guess the bottom of the market, enjoy it now and keep it in excellent condition. That was my logic for my DB9 and that's much more mainstream than a DBS.

[L0TT0]

Jockman said:

Leaving the fold then returning to it just displays a confused and irrational mind.

so are you buying a big boys car then Phil

[SELON]

Can't predict the future but would say to get a manual one...

My advice is to buy it cos you love the car - and there's clearly a lot to love about it!

Then it will just be a pleasant bonus that there's not too much depreciation or a profit in 5 years time.

Anyway, in 2020 who would want to sell a motoring icon like a manual V12 DBS????

[AMDBSNick]

IMVHO the good ones have hit the bottom which obviously counts my old nail out

[Jockman]

L0TT0 said:

Jockman said:

Leaving the fold then returning to it just displays a confused and irrational mind.

so are you buying a big boys car then Phil

Hola Tone......I don't want to start any rumours mate but I've just ordered some sill plaques from Mr Hall