Lib Dems could win election, poll shows
Discussion
Better get some driving in before it’s to late
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By John Rentoul
30 January 2005
The Liberal Democrats could break through to form a government with a big majority according to an exclusive opinion poll conducted for The Independent on Sunday.
Although 20 per cent of voters say they currently intend to vote for Charles Kennedy's party, 37 per cent of those surveyed agreed with the statement: "I would vote for the Liberal Democrats if they had a realistic chance of winning in my constituency".
Those who say they would make the switch to the Liberal Democrats include 29 per cent of Labour supporters, 19 per cent of Conservatives and one-third of those backing other parties.
If people voted along these lines in winnable constituencies, Mr Kennedy would become Prime Minister with a majority of 126 over Labour, and the Conservatives would be reduced to a rump of 56 seats. Six current cabinet ministers would also lose their seats: Margaret Beckett, Charles Clarke, Patricia Hewitt, Alan Johnson, Tessa Jowell and Ruth Kelly.
The figures suggest the potential for meltdown in the electoral system if the Liberal Democrats can persuade voters in their target seats that they have a "realistic chance" of winning. And they reveal the extent to which Tony Blair's decision to join the invasion of Iraq has shaken the kaleidoscope of British politics.
The Liberal Democrats have already gained support at Labour's expense since the build-up to war in Iraq, but could yet gain more.
The British involvement in Iraq remains unpopular and there is strong support for bringing the troops home.
The poll, carried out last week by CommunicateResearch, found that 59 per cent agreed that "British troops should be withdrawn quickly" after today's Iraqi elections, while 32 per cent disagreed.
However, voters are unlikely to shift their allegiance so dramatically in practice, and the poll contains good news for the Prime Minister, with Labour's lead over the Conservatives widening from five points last month to eight points.
Michael Howard's attack on the Government's record on immigration has failed to bring a lift to the Conservative Party.
But the potential of the immigration issue to cost the Labour Party votes is shown by the poll's finding that 71 per cent disagree that "the Government has the issue of illegal immigration under control", including 60 per cent of Labour voters.
There is, however, some comfort for Mr Howard in that the UK Independence Party is nearly off the electoral map on a mere 1 per cent, behind the Green Party on 3 per cent.
CommunicateResearch interviewed a random sample of 1,008 adults by telephone on 26 and 27 January. The results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. CommunicateResearch is a member of the British Polling Council. Full details can be found at www.communicateresearch.com
>>> Edited by C C on Sunday 30th January 03:08
Plunk a frog in boiling water and he jumps out.
Plunk a frog in lukewarm water, put the pot on the fire, and he sits there until he dies.
If the Lib Dems win, driving will get better within six months. Once they've tasted power, they'll never want to go back. When the motorists revolt after they go from the hot-but-not-yet-boiling Labour pot into the steaming cauldron, the Lib Dems will back down so fast they'd win a race going forwards.
Plunk a frog in lukewarm water, put the pot on the fire, and he sits there until he dies.
If the Lib Dems win, driving will get better within six months. Once they've tasted power, they'll never want to go back. When the motorists revolt after they go from the hot-but-not-yet-boiling Labour pot into the steaming cauldron, the Lib Dems will back down so fast they'd win a race going forwards.
One day there will be a government that realises they dont actually run the country, the people do! trouble is not enough people vote, they just turn around making excuses that politics doesnt concern them, off course it 
does you morons, you live in this country and YOU are the people who have a choice in the running of this country FFS! and this government are employed buy YOU! Then and only THEN will the government realise they are nothing compared to the real power of the british people, and then they'll start to give us what we really want, and thats a properly run democratic country which doesnt force unethical policies and legislation onto its people and put the final decision down to its people. If enough people get out of there heads that any government that gets voted in are 'The best of a bad bunch' and give any other party a chance then maybe things will change in this ed up country.
Get out there and vote people
And breath
does you morons, you live in this country and YOU are the people who have a choice in the running of this country FFS! and this government are employed buy YOU! Then and only THEN will the government realise they are nothing compared to the real power of the british people, and then they'll start to give us what we really want, and thats a properly run democratic country which doesnt force unethical policies and legislation onto its people and put the final decision down to its people. If enough people get out of there heads that any government that gets voted in are 'The best of a bad bunch' and give any other party a chance then maybe things will change in this ed up country. Get out there and vote people And breath
Actually, I wouldn't put it past them, and I've been saying this for ages.
Levels of apathy are such in this country that only the increasingly affected and extreme will vote in the next election. There was a poll conducted by the NUS that showed that if the students were the only group that voted, the Lib Dems would win by a huge crushing landslide. I worry that, soon, students and recently-ex-students will be virtually the majority at the polls. Add to that the people who don't really care what goes on in their constituency who've got Lib Dem local councils thinking they'll 'give them a go', and they're looking worryingly credible.
The only positive thing I can see to come out of a Liberal Democrat government is a backing down on some of Labour's control freak policies - they don't like ID cards, they prefer police officers to cameras, and in all honesty I can't see them justifying the expense of a national road charging or speed limiting scheme.
Unfortunately, they'll cover every road with bus lanes, 'speed' humps and scameras, and will cut urban limits to 10mph, then tell everyone to get on the bus. Money will be spent on enforcing the pettiest of petty laws, and your neighbourhood will be rife with crime as the criminals bask in their lenient sentencing, enjoying the fact that they can get out of prison early if they tell a counselor that they've learnt their lesson.
And then there's the economy. Funnily enough, the Lib Dems are almost right of the Conservatives when it comes to their plans for growth - that is, do what Thatcher did, bugger all, and just let it sink or swim depending on what the rest of the world is doing. However, they also want to hike up taxes across the board, which means public spending will actually plummet, there will be a big crash, and people will find their money sucked away from them, not to keep the country ticking over, but to fund idealistic nonsense-projects. They also want to tax your car more, then you to use it less, and they'll make your life a misery with artificially low speed limits and road furniture designed simply to frustrate the motorist.
IMO, prior to the election, and independant body should make a pamphlet containing all the parties manifestos, with no spin in them at all - just the plain facts of what would happen if that party got into power. The problem with elections is that too many people are swayed by bitchy scaremongering campaigns that tell you nothing about policies at all.
Levels of apathy are such in this country that only the increasingly affected and extreme will vote in the next election. There was a poll conducted by the NUS that showed that if the students were the only group that voted, the Lib Dems would win by a huge crushing landslide. I worry that, soon, students and recently-ex-students will be virtually the majority at the polls. Add to that the people who don't really care what goes on in their constituency who've got Lib Dem local councils thinking they'll 'give them a go', and they're looking worryingly credible.
The only positive thing I can see to come out of a Liberal Democrat government is a backing down on some of Labour's control freak policies - they don't like ID cards, they prefer police officers to cameras, and in all honesty I can't see them justifying the expense of a national road charging or speed limiting scheme.
Unfortunately, they'll cover every road with bus lanes, 'speed' humps and scameras, and will cut urban limits to 10mph, then tell everyone to get on the bus. Money will be spent on enforcing the pettiest of petty laws, and your neighbourhood will be rife with crime as the criminals bask in their lenient sentencing, enjoying the fact that they can get out of prison early if they tell a counselor that they've learnt their lesson.
And then there's the economy. Funnily enough, the Lib Dems are almost right of the Conservatives when it comes to their plans for growth - that is, do what Thatcher did, bugger all, and just let it sink or swim depending on what the rest of the world is doing. However, they also want to hike up taxes across the board, which means public spending will actually plummet, there will be a big crash, and people will find their money sucked away from them, not to keep the country ticking over, but to fund idealistic nonsense-projects. They also want to tax your car more, then you to use it less, and they'll make your life a misery with artificially low speed limits and road furniture designed simply to frustrate the motorist.
IMO, prior to the election, and independant body should make a pamphlet containing all the parties manifestos, with no spin in them at all - just the plain facts of what would happen if that party got into power. The problem with elections is that too many people are swayed by bitchy scaremongering campaigns that tell you nothing about policies at all.
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