So it's a bad day
Discussion
Not many stock posts today
China has dropped 6% before they shut things down, now we just have to wait on the non deliveries.
Contrary to most I have used a bit of cash today and put into an S&P index fund.
I'm not usually an index investor but I want to get the drop
Anyone else gone in heavy.
China has dropped 6% before they shut things down, now we just have to wait on the non deliveries.
Contrary to most I have used a bit of cash today and put into an S&P index fund.
I'm not usually an index investor but I want to get the drop
Anyone else gone in heavy.
Mostly waiting added a few tiny longs, last 6 months or so has been very technically driven.
SnP is stuck in a range you could say from August flash crash lows to all time highs, either way seems to be a sell the rally mode from now on imo, I think there is far more potential for a lot lower than there is for a lot higher in 2016. The market to me seems to be at an inflection point, either we get new highs soon or I feel there will be a substantial correction.
Was looking at the chart for Vix there's a potential for that to hit 90ish sometime this year.
Short term I'm looking for 2 scenarios on the SPY, from yesterdays lows to 202/203ish then a fade back down to about 196 anything near the august lows would be a good buying op, and then the other scenario where yesterday's low holds and a move up to about 206-207 where I'd potentially be looking to get short.
SnP is stuck in a range you could say from August flash crash lows to all time highs, either way seems to be a sell the rally mode from now on imo, I think there is far more potential for a lot lower than there is for a lot higher in 2016. The market to me seems to be at an inflection point, either we get new highs soon or I feel there will be a substantial correction.
Was looking at the chart for Vix there's a potential for that to hit 90ish sometime this year.
Short term I'm looking for 2 scenarios on the SPY, from yesterdays lows to 202/203ish then a fade back down to about 196 anything near the august lows would be a good buying op, and then the other scenario where yesterday's low holds and a move up to about 206-207 where I'd potentially be looking to get short.
I can't understand why global stock markets fall just because China does. Everyone knows the Chinese market is overvalued and has been for some time. I haven't done the analysis but on a historical gain / current loss position it seems as if markets outside of China are taking a bigger proportional hit.
It makes no sense given our current 'full' employment position. Don't we buy way more from China than we sell?
It feels like an excuse for people to make money on a falling market and not actually changed fundamentals causing values to drop.
It makes no sense given our current 'full' employment position. Don't we buy way more from China than we sell?
It feels like an excuse for people to make money on a falling market and not actually changed fundamentals causing values to drop.
This may be a stupid question.......
But why are china allowed to take their ball home and shut the market when it takes a kicking?
I thought the whole idea was "the value of investments can fall as well as rise etc etc"
Isnt this unfair on investors who may be waiting for a stock to hit a lower price before buying in?
Can for example the FTSE or the Dow etc close when it all goes pete tong?
But why are china allowed to take their ball home and shut the market when it takes a kicking?
I thought the whole idea was "the value of investments can fall as well as rise etc etc"
Isnt this unfair on investors who may be waiting for a stock to hit a lower price before buying in?
Can for example the FTSE or the Dow etc close when it all goes pete tong?
While it's good for business to have foreign domiciled shares listed, not including them in the index could be a good idea.
While it would not prevent what is currently occurring it would present a clearer picture and perhaps less mayhem.
Mayhem in China, is probably deserved, self inflicted overbuying regardless of earnings. I was able to protect myself last time with a 2x short (FXP) but didn't this time. I'm not even sure if the current valus of Shanghai is even correct because of the trade volume. The market maker spreads must be horrific.
I panic more slowly than most, I shall just carry on with my Monthly purchases.
I will be watching US fund redemptions, I don't think the same thing will happen as 08 because the sellers missed 09 when a lot of money was made but by fewer people.
While it would not prevent what is currently occurring it would present a clearer picture and perhaps less mayhem.
Mayhem in China, is probably deserved, self inflicted overbuying regardless of earnings. I was able to protect myself last time with a 2x short (FXP) but didn't this time. I'm not even sure if the current valus of Shanghai is even correct because of the trade volume. The market maker spreads must be horrific.
I panic more slowly than most, I shall just carry on with my Monthly purchases.
I will be watching US fund redemptions, I don't think the same thing will happen as 08 because the sellers missed 09 when a lot of money was made but by fewer people.
bristolracer said:
This may be a stupid question.......
But why are china allowed to take their ball home and shut the market when it takes a kicking?
I thought the whole idea was "the value of investments can fall as well as rise etc etc"
Isnt this unfair on investors who may be waiting for a stock to hit a lower price before buying in?
Can for example the FTSE or the Dow etc close when it all goes pete tong?
It's Shanghai that was shut, Shanghai really only caters to Chinese mainland who should really only allowed to be betting on cock fights na cock roachracing, my not os humble opinionBut why are china allowed to take their ball home and shut the market when it takes a kicking?
I thought the whole idea was "the value of investments can fall as well as rise etc etc"
Isnt this unfair on investors who may be waiting for a stock to hit a lower price before buying in?
Can for example the FTSE or the Dow etc close when it all goes pete tong?
Others will buy red chips in Hong kong. You can see the overbuying by looking at the drop in Shanghai vs. Hong kong.
The shutting is not to prveent long investors buying, they will surely get their chance
More about programmed selling being initiated.Yes US and UK can stop trading.
jeff m2 said:
It's Shanghai that was shut, Shanghai really only caters to Chinese mainland who should really only allowed to be betting on cock fights na cock roachracing, my not os humble opinion
Others will buy red chips in Hong kong. You can see the overbuying by looking at the drop in Shanghai vs. Hong kong.
The shutting is not to prveent long investors buying, they will surely get their chance More about programmed selling being initiated.
Yes US and UK can stop trading.
Interesting Others will buy red chips in Hong kong. You can see the overbuying by looking at the drop in Shanghai vs. Hong kong.
The shutting is not to prveent long investors buying, they will surely get their chance
More about programmed selling being initiated.Yes US and UK can stop trading.
So I guess its just a system to stop the computers dropping the lot.
Maybe we need to go back to the days of wideboys in colourful blazers all screaming at each other stood in sweaty dealing pits!
No circuit breakers tonight! China have removed them.
That chart above, you can subscribe to this theory or think it's all witchcraft but just what I see from the chart.
The previous 00 & 08 crash was preceded by the 10 day green line crossing over the 21 day blue line.
The only time we managed to bounce once we crossed past the blue line was in 98,11, and the August flash crash but none of those had a cross over.
Then finally if you look at the 00 and 08 crashes once the market crosses the blue line to the downside it makes an attempt to come back above roughly 1-3 months after only to be rejected. Once that happens we get a 50% - 60% correction. So you could say that final rejection might be the confirmation to get short or get to 100% cash.
In today’s terms the important trend line from the bottom in 09 is close to being tested, but also we’ve lost the blue line and it appears the cross over is imminent, the final confirmation will be if we can’t get above the blue line on the next rally and get rejected there if that happens that will my cue to take a max short position.
Figured they'd have a plan to buy if they were getting rid of the circuit breakers, maybe it will be a good day later on.
That chart above, you can subscribe to this theory or think it's all witchcraft but just what I see from the chart.
The previous 00 & 08 crash was preceded by the 10 day green line crossing over the 21 day blue line.
The only time we managed to bounce once we crossed past the blue line was in 98,11, and the August flash crash but none of those had a cross over.
Then finally if you look at the 00 and 08 crashes once the market crosses the blue line to the downside it makes an attempt to come back above roughly 1-3 months after only to be rejected. Once that happens we get a 50% - 60% correction. So you could say that final rejection might be the confirmation to get short or get to 100% cash.
In today’s terms the important trend line from the bottom in 09 is close to being tested, but also we’ve lost the blue line and it appears the cross over is imminent, the final confirmation will be if we can’t get above the blue line on the next rally and get rejected there if that happens that will my cue to take a max short position.
Edited by twinturboz on Thursday 7th January 21:38
Figured they'd have a plan to buy if they were getting rid of the circuit breakers, maybe it will be a good day later on.
Edited by twinturboz on Friday 8th January 01:30
Yup, I'm buying at the moment - and trying to be a little bit cautious.
Mind you, I was buying last April as well and some stuff has dropped 10% since then!
The optimistic side of me is waiting for "recovery" in Energy/Natural Resources and in Emerging Markets, having been buying all the way down and now standing on some thumping losses. Might have to wait a bit for that one to come right...
Mind you, I was buying last April as well and some stuff has dropped 10% since then!
The optimistic side of me is waiting for "recovery" in Energy/Natural Resources and in Emerging Markets, having been buying all the way down and now standing on some thumping losses. Might have to wait a bit for that one to come right...
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