State of the economy
Discussion
Despite all the ramblings to the contrary, it seems to me that our economy is actually in quite a vulnerable state.
Manufacturing is now almost history, as friends (un)employed in the business can vouch.
Houseprices have risen meteorically on the back of low interest rates. They seem to have now found their peak.
The same low interest rates mean low returns on investments and those of us with savings wonder why we bother. This, of course, adversely affects pension funds.
The main beneficiaries seem to be banks (larger mortgages = larger profits) and the myriad of 'Ocean Loans' and 'Yes Car' credit companies who make fortunes from lending money to the fiscally inept.
The whole economy seems to be artificially propped up on the proceeds of credit.
I know there are many people on here a lot more knowledgeable on economics than me so am I missing anything?
Manufacturing is now almost history, as friends (un)employed in the business can vouch.
Houseprices have risen meteorically on the back of low interest rates. They seem to have now found their peak.
The same low interest rates mean low returns on investments and those of us with savings wonder why we bother. This, of course, adversely affects pension funds.
The main beneficiaries seem to be banks (larger mortgages = larger profits) and the myriad of 'Ocean Loans' and 'Yes Car' credit companies who make fortunes from lending money to the fiscally inept.
The whole economy seems to be artificially propped up on the proceeds of credit.
I know there are many people on here a lot more knowledgeable on economics than me so am I missing anything?
rsvmilly said:
I know there are many people on here a lot more knowledgeable on economics than me so am I missing anything?
Don't sell yourself short, there are many people on here who may think they are more knowledgeable than you but you are spot on.
Ask most people what percentage their cost of living has gone up by in the last 12 months and chances are they will probably not know. Ask them what the rate of inflation is and they will probably quote the government brainwashing 1.6%. The rest of the figures blurted out by our glorious leaders are equally accurate/honest.
The economy is fairly vulnerable
It is propped up by two types of credit-Peoples personal borrowings and the government borrowing to fuel it's spending boom.
Private sector employment has I believe actually declined since 2001-the massive hiring spree in the public sector has disguised this fact.
Business and commerce are being slowly strangled by over regulation and high taxation.
However the picture is not a complete disater and the economy is doing OK at the moment-it is the future I worry about.
It is propped up by two types of credit-Peoples personal borrowings and the government borrowing to fuel it's spending boom.
Private sector employment has I believe actually declined since 2001-the massive hiring spree in the public sector has disguised this fact.
Business and commerce are being slowly strangled by over regulation and high taxation.
However the picture is not a complete disater and the economy is doing OK at the moment-it is the future I worry about.
Manufacturing down the plughole. Retail had a breather being solely buoyed by credit and remortgage "windfall" 
. All of which has to be paid back. *Still waiting for housing price implosion - unless the last rich man in the UK is intending to buy them all up at the first asking price*
Economy'll probably totter along and collapse some time during next term. If labour were smart they would throw the next election, let it collapse under tories and then get back into power for all eternity - voted in by the 90% of the country who are, by that point, civil servants of some kind.
. All of which has to be paid back. *Still waiting for housing price implosion - unless the last rich man in the UK is intending to buy them all up at the first asking price* Economy'll probably totter along and collapse some time during next term. If labour were smart they would throw the next election, let it collapse under tories and then get back into power for all eternity - voted in by the 90% of the country who are, by that point, civil servants of some kind.
funkihamsta said:
Manufacturing down the plughole. Retail had a breather being solely buoyed by credit and remortgage "windfall"
Economy'll probably totter along and collapse some time during next term. If labour were smart they would throw the next election, let it collapse under tories and then get back into power for all eternity - voted in by the 90% of the country who are, by that point, civil servants of some kind.
I think pessimism can be overdone-I do not see a collapse in the near future.
Jaglover said:
I think pessimism can be overdone-I do not see a collapse in the near future.
I would agree but I reckon there will be some interesting times ahead after the election.
All these debts have to be paid back somehow and the only people that are going to be doing it are the tax payers.
rsvmilly said:
Despite all the ramblings to the contrary, it seems to me that our economy is actually in quite a vulnerable state.
Manufacturing is now almost history, as friends (un)employed in the business can vouch.
Houseprices have risen meteorically on the back of low interest rates. They seem to have now found their peak.
The same low interest rates mean low returns on investments and those of us with savings wonder why we bother. This, of course, adversely affects pension funds.
The main beneficiaries seem to be banks (larger mortgages = larger profits) and the myriad of 'Ocean Loans' and 'Yes Car' credit companies who make fortunes from lending money to the fiscally inept.
The whole economy seems to be artificially propped up on the proceeds of credit.
I know there are many people on here a lot more knowledgeable on economics than me so am I missing anything?
I would agree - I`m involved with electronics manufacture (small to medium batch) and I`ve recently had to start having it made and importing from the far east in order to try and maintain diminishing margins. But I am also looking to get into something outside manufacturing now because "the writing is on the wall"
I wonder where the world will go for manufacturing once Chinas economy is on par?
ing pessimists! 
Size Nine Elm said:
All these debts have to be paid back somehow and the only people that are going to be doing it are the tax payers.
Simple. Just let inflation run to 25% for five years. Almost no debt left... or savings, but who cares about that.
That is how governments have got out of it in the past.
They might have more trouble now the BOE is independent though.
Depends if you mean the state of the economy in the Short or Long Term.
Short Term things are great full employment, Low inflation, taxation at lower than most European countries levels ect.
Long Term issues with under investment in infrastructure and Low skills are the main dangers to the economy.
Also the Pensions timebomb will need to be addressed if the country does not want to go bankcrupt.
Short Term things are great full employment, Low inflation, taxation at lower than most European countries levels ect.
Long Term issues with under investment in infrastructure and Low skills are the main dangers to the economy.
Also the Pensions timebomb will need to be addressed if the country does not want to go bankcrupt.
john75 said:
Depends if you mean the state of the economy in the Short or Long Term.
Short Term things are great full employment, Low inflation, taxation at lower than most European countries levels ect.
Long Term issues with under investment in infrastructure and Low skills are the main dangers to the economy.
Also the Pensions timebomb will need to be addressed if the country does not want to go bankcrupt.
You may have hit the nail on the head there.
Other long term issues are the slow strangling of the productive sector of the economy through high taxes and over regulation.
A big long term worry is the public sector pension bill-this is greater even than the national debt I believe.
simpo two said:
Agree entirely: Labour will cook the books until eventually the whole thing will implode in a MASSIVE recession. It will probably do the same in most of Europe too.
And then the Conservatives will get back in and have to sweep up the bits...
Just as they had to in 1979
Jaglover said:
Other long term issues are the slow strangling of the productive sector of the economy through high taxes and over regulation.
The key is how fast our global competitors regulate or otherwise parts of the wealth creating sector.
Germany, France and alot of mainland Europe have yet to deal with this dilema.
Interestingly through German and French Workers are more productive than UK workers guess this ties in failings in skill levels and infrastructure.
The problem with Economics is althrough Governments like to think they can control the economy it is more a case of guiding a oil tanker with a small rudder and a 2 stroke outboard in that Economies have a life of their own rather like animal.
I am interested in the real observations from across the PH collective on this.
Within this community online, must be representatives of many industries and located all over the country.
A cross-section of opinions from around would be as good a barometer on the economy as anything.
So, some questions:
1. Is you company / employer growing, standing still, or receiving reduced levels of business?
2. Is your company/ employer hiring more people or laying them off?
3. Are you more optimistic about the future compared to this time last year, or less?
Personally, I am a little concerned. I see huge levels of debt, no real readjustment to a over-priced property market ( especially when looking at the plight of first time buyers ) and some evidence of increasing unemployment in terms of "real" jobs.
And everyone must have noticed how the shops and car dealers are having to work extra hard to shift their goods....which is not a healthy sign.
Whats the view from your part of the world?
Within this community online, must be representatives of many industries and located all over the country.
A cross-section of opinions from around would be as good a barometer on the economy as anything.
So, some questions:
1. Is you company / employer growing, standing still, or receiving reduced levels of business?
2. Is your company/ employer hiring more people or laying them off?
3. Are you more optimistic about the future compared to this time last year, or less?
Personally, I am a little concerned. I see huge levels of debt, no real readjustment to a over-priced property market ( especially when looking at the plight of first time buyers ) and some evidence of increasing unemployment in terms of "real" jobs.
And everyone must have noticed how the shops and car dealers are having to work extra hard to shift their goods....which is not a healthy sign.
Whats the view from your part of the world?
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